An old video clip of former President Daniel arap Moi sharing nuggets of his political philosophy has resurfaced, and at a very appropriate time. It is from a period in the mid-1990’s when he was aggressively courting opposition politicians.
On one occasion, he explained his strategy at a public rally, choosing the analogy of a young man courting. He would promise to brave the fiercest storms, climb the highest mountains and traverse the deepest valleys to reach the apple of his eye; but conclude by telling her he would keep the weekend date “if it stops drizzling”.
The point was that then, when the fair lass was “in the box”, to apply today’s parlance, and there would be no need for further extravagant pledges, let alone honouring existing ones.
This is a piece of wisdom that could apply to President William Ruto’s pursuit today of key opposition leaders to help secure his 2027 re-election bid.
The latest notch on his barrel, the capture of Kanu leader Gideon Moi, was significant for a number of reasons. With the promise that Kanu will be incorporated in the broad-based government, the youngest son and political heir of the late President Moi abandoned his quest to recapture the Baringo County senatorial seat in the by-election set for next month.
Mr Moi justified his decision on a promise from President Ruto to complete stalled development projects in Baringo, but a quick view of the aforementioned video clip on daddy’s methods will show him that such promises are not worth the paper they’re written on. It will be drizzling at the appointed time.
President Ruto’s coup was hailed as a political masterstroke, but that would be an exaggeration given that the younger Moi is really a nobody on the national political scene. He has presided over the terminal decline of Kanu from a fearsome monolith to an institution on life support.
So it was not really about one individual of little value other than his name, but about an ongoing strategy that earlier saw the most significant capture—that of Mr Raila Odinga —and makes no secret of efforts to similarly pocket former President Uhuru Kenyatta and Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka .
A popular narrative doing the rounds is that President Ruto, the self-proclaimed Hustler, is actively seeking the support of the Dynasty classes he so viciously skewered in his 2022 presidential campaign.
But it might be more about President Ruto achieving his ultimate goal of forcing his way into the “dynasty” social and economic classes, and of course abandoning the “hustler” hoi polloi who swept him to power in 2022.
That is a familiar script. When Moi succeeded the late President Jomo Kenyatta in 1978, his most urgent agenda was to amass the power and wealth that would allow him into the upper echelons. Mere capture of political power was not enough, unless fuelled by unlimited amounts of cash that would help him buy out all challengers, and buy acceptance into the rarefied circles occupied by “old money”.
President Ruto seems to faithfully follow that script. He may have achieved political decimation of the “dynasties”, but that is not enough unless it is part of an agenda of securing admission into the upper crust.
In that case, the “if it doesn’t drizzle” caveat would apply not to the promises made to Raila, Gideon and any other targets, but to the masses who voted for him on the promise of a “bottom-up” ideology where resources would be re-directed to the downtrodden and where the Mama Mboga and Boda Boda rider would have a seat at the high table.
As President Ruto’s economic advisor, David Ndii, famously retorted when asked about another of the raft of broken campaign promises: “And you believed him”. The hustlers now can only watch from the sidelines as President Ruto finds his seat among the economic and social elite.
There are still many twists and turns to follow in this story. The Ruto propaganda machinery continues to spin falsehoods, eagerly regurgitated by sections of the media, that Mr Kenyatta is also playing ball.
Who will really be worth watching, however, is Mr Musyoka. The Wiper leader, with his “watermelon” tag, has often been characterised as the weak link in opposition ranks, but he has been steadfast in rejecting blandishments from the Ruto war chest.
Mr Musyoka, former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i and former Chief Justice David Maraga stand out as the declared presidential aspirants determined to go toe-to-toe with Ruto, but all must know that they will hang separately if they don’t present a united front come the elections.
