There can be no doubt that Raila Odinga is about the most important and influential Kenyan leader of all time. He may never have reached the Holy Grail after five unsuccessful attempts at the presidency, but in the annals of Kenyan history he will stand head and shoulders above all those who have beaten him to the post.
Even today at the age of 79, the certified heart and soul of opposition politics towers over everybody else. Without him leading the charge, all efforts to keep the government in check will be puny and futile, doomed to stillbirth from the very beginning.
Father time catches up with everybody, and Mr Odinga seems to be wisely crafting a retirement plan. His quest for the Africa Union Commission chairman, if successful, will provide a soft landing and graceful exit from the rough and tumble of Kenyan politics. His legions of supporters will not see him bowing out with unfulfilled ambitions, but scaling the pinnacle of African leadership to heights over and above the mere Kenyan presidency.
We can only wish him Godspeed in his quest, and at the same time recognise the grace and wisdom in President William Ruto agreeing to back him. That is not to be taken lightly, for Mr Odinga would have not the slightest chance of securing the AU seat without the full support and ‘sponsorship’ of the Kenya government.
Many in President Ruto’s court who are wired to hate Mr Odinga and oppose everything he says were probably left aghast and confused at the hand extended to a fierce rival, but wisdom and statesmanship eventually triumph over foolishness.
With Mr Odinga already effectively out of Kenyan politics as he pursues the continental assignment, a yawning chasm has opened up.
The legendary opposition leader might probably fit into the Indian adage about the mighty banyan tree that allows nothing else to grow under it.
The vacuum in opposition ranks without Mr Odinga’s towering leadership is already apparent. We are seeing key figures in the Azimio la Umoja coalition scrambling to fit into his giant shoes, but they will probably be hard-pressed to pull any impressive crowds.
In community leadership, the ODM party and the opposition coalition, it is obvious that Mr Odinga never crafted a succession plan, and what remains in his absence are movements without direction or purpose.
He might well be accused, like the banyan tree, of stifling everybody else under his giant shadow. Or of not grooming and mentoring potential successors.
The fact of the matter, however, is that leaders make themselves, they are not made by others.
Mr Odinga’s own rise to the top no doubt was helped by learning at the feet of his equally legendary father—Oginga Odinga, the father of Kenyan opposition and protest politics—but ultimately it was his own drive, vision, determination and commitment to the cause that mattered most.
In today’s Kenya the only parallel might be in President Ruto, who overcame the odds to rise to the highest office in the land due to his own single-minded determination, hard work and masterful strategies.
President Ruto essentially made himself, he did not have to depend on others to pull him from above or push him from below. Those who came into his constellation and played key roles in the rise to power came in under his terms, not theirs.
They may have been fierce foes, but Ruto and Raila are in many ways birds of a feather through rising in politics through different routes, the former literally gatecrashing into the elite club, and the latter growing up in an influential political family.
Both are masterful operatives, schemers and coalition builders who live, eat and breath politics 24/7.
The problem with such dominant personalities is that they don’t create movements that can outlast them. ODM is Raila and UDA is Ruto, and both might face bleak futures without the leader around whom they are built.
Whatever fate ODM faces as Raila bows out will most likely be mirrored in UDA when it is the President’s turn to hand over the baton. This is a reminder that leaders must not be the banyan tree that allows no one else to thrive, but the one that, according to another piece of Indian wisdom, is the giver of life and symbol of stability, constancy and permanency.
Those angling for the top position in ODM and Azimio right now must, therefore, be working not just on filling his shoes but creating movements with clear vision and purpose that will outlast individuals.
