The complete and utter rout suffered by President Donald Trump’s Republican Party in the recent midterm elections in the United States offered valuable lessons on the fate that can befall a government infected by the arrogance of power.
There are many administrations which assume that electoral victory amounts to the mandate to subject citizens to dictatorial ways, police brutality and unbridled theft from the public purse.
President Trump’s comeback to the White House in the 2024 elections, after a one-term hiatus, seemed to signal entrenchment of a regime bent on taking the country back to the insular ways dictated by the racist right.
We can draw many parallels between Trumpism and Rutoism, that self-righteous hubris that represents the dark side of President William Ruto’s administration.
To that we could add, also, many of the key opposition politicians working to oust President Ruto, but offering little in alternative policy prescriptions other than salivating for their turn at the national piggy bank.
President Trump was not a candidate at the midterm elections – those unique polls in-between presidential elections in a good number of seats in the House of Representatives and the Senate, and numerous state and local elections. However, he made the elections all about his policies that have deeply fractured one of the worlds great democracies.
The president, serving out his final term, hit the campaign trail aggressively, making it a personal crusade with exhortations that voters imagined he was on the ballot.
They did, and voted massively against his Republican Party candidates. The Democratic Party, which appeared dead and buried after its 2024 defeat, bounced back strongly. It secured almost unimaginable majorities in both Houses of Congress, the House of Representatives and the Senate, knocking out incumbents in dozens of seats, including many that have been Republican strongholds for generations.
The Blue Tsunami, as it was labelled, was a political realignment of seismic proportions two years before Americans go into another presidential election with Trump serving out his lame-duck tenure.
Although the US and Kenyan electoral systems differ fundamentally, what matters here is that we don’t have midterm polls, as we hold presidential, parliamentary, gubernatorial, and county assembly elections on the same day.
It is also relevant that unlike the US, we don’t have an effective two-party system. Our elections will not be Blue vs Red, but the yellow of President Ruto’s UDA and coalition partners, defending against a motley bunch of undetermined challengers of various competing colours and stripes who are often more busy sniping at each other instead of focusing on the prize.
But many of the issues that worked against Trumpism are present here. First, an arrogant leadership completely out of touch with the real needs and aspirations of the people. Inflation, the cost of living, the rich-poor divide, a criminal police service, ostentatious displays of stolen wealth, uncaring leaders, unpopular foreign adventures driven by self-interest... the list is endless.
Oh, and an obsession with development of “shiny things” whose principal beneficiaries are those in leadership, blatantly flouting public procurement laws for self-enrichment.
President Trump touts his White House ballroom and gaudy “bling bling” remodelling of the Oval Office, and other signature projects, but a populace buffeted by record petroleum and food prices doesn’t give a damn.
When he went on the campaign trail offering $5,000 for every adult American if the Republicans retained control of Congress, it was like he was borrowing heavily from the Ruto playbook. Such blatant voter bribery was unheard of in US politics. However, the voters didn’t bite and decisively handed Mr Trump his Ol Kalou moment.
President Ruto has been on the campaign trail ever since he assumed office in 2022, but is still approaching the 2027 polls as the angry and bitter outsider. His campaign messaging is about hurling blame and diatribes at his predecessor, and ethnic mobilisation designed to divide rather than unite Kenyans.
He touts grand projects and economic growth data, forgetting that voters more concerned with basic survival will hardly be impressed.
The president is approaching his re-election campaign having completely forgotten the issues which sparked the 2024 Gen Z revolt. He assumed that the powers of incumbency, unlimited financial resources, and control of the instruments of terror will guarantee success. He should place a call to his US counterpart.
Mr Gaitho, an independent journalist, is former NMG Managing Editor for Special Projects. [email protected]
