President William Ruto finds himself in the right junction of history. By hosting the African Climate Summit early next month and having the chance to champion the causes of the continent, Mr Ruto has his first stab—the Kaunda suits and brave statements notwithstanding—at truly draping the mantle of pan-Africanism on his eager shoulder.
Only his administration’s astounding propensity for the bungle stands on his way to African greatness.
Africa faces many risks—poverty, disease, racism and neo-imperialism, corruption, terrorism, bad politics, war and so on. But none as serious as climate change. In his small but very interesting book, Brief Answers to the Big Questions, Stephen Hawking, among my favourite authors, tells the story of the Doomsday Clock—made by the physicists who invented the nuclear bomb to measure how close the world is to catastrophe.
In Prof’s thinking, there is little reason to be optimistic: The threats are too many and too big for us to stand a chance of avoiding Armageddon.
He acknowledges the risks posed by unstable, populist politicians, nuclear weapons all over the place and the likelihood that they could fall into the hands of terrorists, setting off a serious confrontation, as well as the depletion of earth’s resources and its inability to sustain all of us.
The most serious risk, however, and the one that makes the extinction of man almost inevitable, is the danger of man-made climate change becoming self-sustaining.
Loss of polar ice caps reduces the amount of solar energy reflected back into the void, further raising temperatures; changing weather kills off the Amazon and other rainforests, increasing the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
Warming oceans pump out even more carbon dioxide, heating Earth to as hot as Venus, 250 degrees Celcius and raining sulfuric acid.
There was a time when all these changes were reversible, maybe they still are, but the fact that we haven’t stopped the harm, that many people deny the existence of climate change, is all the evidence you need of our doom.
Africa is among the most vulnerable regions. It sits on some of the warmest latitudes of the planet, so it is among the first to feel the heat, and more of it. It is technologically struggling, meaning that it does not have access to modern tools of mastering a changing and increasingly hostile environment.
Already, climate change has impacted growth in the continent more than elsewhere: It has lost $290-440 billion (Sh34.6-63.4 trillion) due to weather changes, according to some estimates.
Our continent is poor and unable to sufficiently invest in resilience. So, we can’t grow enough food; there is little to sell. Water is becoming an even bigger problem with the uncertainty of the rains, sometimes leading to water conflict.
If the environment gets affected, tourism feels the impact. Either the risk of disease increases and there are fewer animals to see or the climate becomes too hostile for pleasure.
The power to change the relentless march of man-made climate change is not in Africa’s hands; there is nothing the continent can do to slow down the polluters of Asia, Europe and Americas. In some ways, we are a bunch of black sitting ducks, waiting to be fried by the Sun.
The only chance Africa has of making a difference comes from acting in concert, confronting the rest of the world as 52-odd countries, with the same set of messages, digging in and refusing to move in its common interest. Africa does not need flip-flopping or a torrent of wilting promises.
President Ruto has a great opportunity to provide resolute but reasonable leadership of the continent on this existential question.
But even as Africa makes demands on the world, it needs to demonstrate that it is organised and means business. First, Africans need to show that they are serious about meeting their emission pledges under the Paris Agreement.
Two, that they are doing everything possible to mitigate damage to the environment. You don’t need to be rich or educated to plant trees, or to keep filth off the oceans, or to use water and energy carefully.
Where it needs help, Africa must have a clear mind how much help it needs and what it needs it for and to make a clear commitment that such resources are well used. Kenya says it needs about Sh6.7 billion to implement climate mitigation and adaptation measures. I’d imagine that a clear programme of action and the expected results accompany this estimate.
President Ruto has a lot to thank organisations such as the African Union and funders like GIZ for—for the opportunity that ACS presents to the continent to address a very serious heachache. And for him to show the world that he is a leader who can lead with vision and smarts, and not just lead a country but a whole continent, to confront an extinction threat and secure its future and that of the entire human race.
