Former deputy president Rigathi Gachagua speaks to the media at the home of former Kakamega senator Cleophas Malala in Kakamega County on December 29, 2024.
The fate of nations lies in the character of its citizens and leaders. As Joseph de Maistre, the French philosopher, observed, “In a democracy, people get the government they deserve.” This isn’t to say citizens don’t experience buyer’s remorse. They do on many occasions.
Democracy demands they wait until the next electoral cycle to decide what they should do with the leaders they elected in the last cycle. It’s clear many Kenyans have raised concerns with the UDA-Kenya Kwanza administration they put in place in 2022. Those concerns boiled over in June 2024 with intense Gen Z protests, which unfortunately were hijacked by goons. It’s out of those protests that a new national order is emerging.
The youthful protestors decried public corruption, ethnic exclusion, clawbacks in the democratic project and the rule of law, conspicuous consumption by officials amidst an economic downturn, and grinding penury among the hoi polloi. President William Ruto wisely, and in a timeous manner, responded to the existential threat to the state by dismissing his entire cabinet and denouncing many of the excesses that ignited the protests.
Central Kenya chauvinism
ODM’s Raila Odinga, as he has done before, saw the danger ahead and offered some of his stalwarts for appointment to cabinet to steady the national ship of state. Calm returned to the country. But challenges remained with then Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua accused of sabotaging the state from within. The answer was to impeach him.
Mr Gachagua’s impeachment, an unapologetic architect of Central Kenya chauvinism and entitlement within the Kenya Kwanza government, ignited a firestorm among the Gikuyu, Embu and Meru communities, usually bundled under the acronym Gema. Mr Gachagua has sought to create a separatist, siege mentality among Gema peoples. He would have us believe that today he is Mother Teresa where yesterday he was the unflinching advocate of Gikuyu supremacy.
His rhetoric is so bilious and vile I fear he could set Central Kenya against other communities in Kenya. To cover up for this obvious rationale for his campaign against President Ruto, Mr Gachagua has recruited Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka with an unbankable promise to make him president in 2027. The wizened Mr Musyoka is coyly playing along.
Kenya risks unbridgeable ethnic divides heading up to the 2027 polls. Mr Gachagua has not only tried to bag Mr Musyoka and the Ukambani region, but he’s reached out to Western Kenya’s Azimio remnants in the persons of DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa and the rubble-rousing Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya. In his flailing attempt to crown himself Gema kingpin, he’s brought into his kraal former Azimio running mate Martha Karua, and former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i who from Kisii, and harbours presidential ambitions. The wild card is former President Uhuru Kenyatta, who controls Jubilee and its Secretary General Jeremiah Kioni. Mr Kenyatta doesn’t see eye to eye with Mr Gachagua.
Gema kingpin
It is highly unlikely Mr Kenyatta would allow Mr Gachagua to succeed him as Gema kingpin. Let’s not forget Mr Gachagua is a lame duck. Politically, he’s a dead man walking. He’s impeached and barred from running for anything, let alone for president, in 2027. The best he can hope for is to be a kingmaker. Prof Kithure Kindiki, who succeeded him as Deputy President, is from Mt Kenya East, and in spite of belittling the good professor as a yes-man, it’s clear Mr Gachagua can’t wish Dr Kindiki away. This means Mr Gachagua will only be able to deliver a diminished Gema vote to whoever his bride will be in 2027. He’s a limping general.
I have no doubt Mr Gachagua is a malevolent force in Kenyan politics. His crude attacks on National Intelligence Service Director General Noordin Haji in the wake of the 2024 Gen Z protests showed he’s a serious threat to Kenya’s security. Can he be trusted with the reins of power whether as a head of state or puppeteer?
Last week, realising the options on the other side, ODM and UDA signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to work together on key pillars of governance. The MoU itself isn’t a blockbuster, but a statement of principles central to the 2010 constitution – inclusivity, respect for the rule of law, safeguarding devolution, bringing the youth to the center of the nation, and building an economy of prosperity for all.
The ODM-UDA agreement might be the harbinger to a larger progressive political formation for 2027. Time will tell. I have heard naysayers attack Mr Odinga for entering the MoU with President Ruto. My answer to them is simple – you don’t make peace with your friends but with your opponents. Mr Odinga has carefully looked at the options for Kenya and has decided for now that the Gachagua side would lead the country into a polarised state without any larger vision. Give Mr Odinga a break. He’s done more for democracy than anyone else in this country. Some of the bilious voices, including Mr Gachagua, will never do even five per cent of what Mr Odinga has done, even if they lived 10 lifetimes.
Makau Mutua is SUNY Distinguished Professor and Margaret W. Wong Professor at Buffalo Law School, The State University of New York. On X: @makaumutua.
