Participants during the Shujaaz Memorial concert held on July 7, 2024 at Uhuru Park in Nairobi.
In medieval Europe, power was concentrated on the Kings. They acted both as presidents with executive power and judges with Judicial powers. Their words were law, hence they were legislators also.
Three men were arraigned before a medieval Europe King on charges of murder, which attracted the death penalty. They were duly convicted. During those times, the death penalty would be carried out immediately in public upon conviction. Before they could be taken to face death, one convicted person raised his hand seeking some audience with the King, which he was granted.
"Your majesty, postpone my execution for three days only. Before the third day, I will render a magical action that will convert your horse into a flying one. I am sure you desire that - you will thus stand protected against enemies' arrows and projectiles in your many battles ", he told the King.
Seeing an opportunity to avoid death in various fierce fights, the King agreed but issued stern warnings that if the prisoner delivers the flying horse, failure to which he will suffer more agonising death.
As the King's court adjourned and the three convicted persons were being ushered away, the other two prisoners inquired ."Why did you make such a weird proposition to His Majesty?"
Cruel death
"First, I can die naturally before day three. That will help me avoid this cruel death you are certainly about to face now, unlike me. Second, the King can die before day three. You know the rules of our kingdom - all death sentences are commuted to prison terms in the event a new king ascends to power. But for you, your death warrants have just been signed, hence you have no opportunity to benefit in case of such an occurrence. In other words, I have bought time, and with time, many things can happen. Thirdly, who knows, I might miraculously conjure something that can actually make the horse fly before day three".
The above story captures the 2027 political conundrum that is yet to be settled. This is unlike other elections where factors were aligned at least two years before the polling day. Take the 2007 elections. As at 2005, politics had morphed into two camps of ODM versus PNU. In 2013, ICC created a political momentum of Uhuru and Ruto versus Raila. Subsequent elections became a clear divide between these two camps.
Several factors are causing this hazy situation.
First is the Uhuru factor. Uhuru is like the character in the movie by Arnold Schwarzenegger, "The Terminator 2". That is the shape-shifting Terminator made of liquid metal, which once shot or bombed turns into liquid smithereens. But after a few seconds, the liquid smithereens morph back into a human-like metal that chases the bomber.
The Terminator
In the 2022 elections, the mountain had bombed The Terminator. Some had thought he had been buried. But he is now back politically, chasing around his nemesis. Incidentally, he is not talking or giving any outright directions. But in various political discussions, his name features prominently. Even the president had to go and visit him in his rural Gatundu home.
The second is Baba. What is he up to? He seems to be giving all manner of signals. He is acting like a beautiful young lady who is being courted for marriage. The man buys her expensive clothes, houses and vehicles, but on the day of consummation, she starts to give all kinds of excuses. With his solid support, his firm settlement will give the 2027 elections some clearer direction.
Third, a key political factor for 2027 might be Gen-Z. This tribeless, leaderless cohort - how big is it? Whom will they support? IEBC is about to be reconstituted. Mass voter registration will commence soon. The political size of this group is about to be known. If indeed politicians realise it is a huge constituency, 2027 political messaging by government and opposition will have to be recast to suit their tastes.
Fourth, small communities will matter. They are no longer small. They are actually big now. The voters of Turkana, Maasai, Somali and such ethnic groups have been on an upward trajectory. Any good political grouping must have an eye to these numbers and think of ways of penetrating them.
Dr Irungu Kangata is the Governor for Muranga County. email Franciskangataik@gmail.com
