Farmers in selected regions of the country currently experiencing rainfall can begin planting as pre-season showers mark the onset of the long rains in several regions
According to the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), farming activities should be carried out in consultation with agricultural extension officers.
Speaking to Nation, acting KMD Director Edward Muriuki advised that planting decisions be guided by scientifically confirmed onset dates at the local level, rather than by isolated rainfall events.
The March, April, May 2026 long rains have already begun in several regions, including the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Central and South Rift Valley, and the Highlands East of the Rift Valley, including Nairobi County.
The counties in the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, Lake Victoria Basin, and Central and South Rift Valley include Bungoma, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, West Pokot, Elgeyo-Marakwet, Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bomet, Kericho, Kisii, Nyamira, Homa Bay, Migori, Kisumu, Busia, Baringo, Nakuru, Western Laikipia, and Narok.
In the Highlands East of the Rift Valley, the onset covers Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang'a, Embu, Meru, Kiambu, Nyandarua, Nairobi, and Eastern Laikipia.
The South-eastern Lowlands and South Coast experienced onset during the fourth week of February, while the Northwestern and North-eastern regions are expected to experience onset between late March and early April. They include; Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Machakos, Tana River and Taita Taveta.
The North Coast, including Lamu, Malindi, coastal parts of Tana River, and Kilifi, is likely to experience a delayed onset in mid-April despite intermittent early-season rainfall.
However, many parts of the country remain outside the onset window. In the northern and eastern Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs), rainfall remains minimal and intermittent. Meteorologists caution that premature planting in these regions could expose farmers to losses if dry spells follow.
"Farmers in these regions are therefore advised to exercise caution and await confirmation of onset to avoid losses associated with dry spells," Muriuki said. KMD emphasised that the showers being experienced in some areas should be viewed as early or pre-season rainfall, not confirmation that the main seasonal rains have fully established.
“Recent rainfall should be interpreted as early or pre-season rainfall in some regions and does not automatically signal an end to drought conditions, especially in the northern and eastern ASAL areas where the main rains are yet to commence,” Muriuki added.
KMD further clarified that recent rainfall should not be interpreted as an automatic end to drought conditions.
While some areas have received showers in recent days, rainfall distribution has been uneven, and the main seasonal rains are yet to begin in several ASAL counties.
The department noted that drought assessments are conducted after seasonal, mid-season, or monthly evaluations, once sufficient data on rainfall performance, vegetation condition, water availability, and livelihood impacts have been analysed.
According to the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA), the drought situation has worsened across much of the ASALs following the poor performance of the October–December 2025 short rains and prolonged hot, dry conditions at the start of the year.
An estimated 3.3 million people across 23 ASAL counties are currently food insecure, with the figure projected to rise to 3.68 million by June 2026 if the March–May long rains perform below average.
"Without timely, adequately financed, and coordinated interventions, localised areas risk sliding into emergency-level outcomes during the dry season that extends into March," NDMA noted.
According to the authority, the drought phase classification shows widening stress. Seven counties remain in the 'Normal' phase, but are exhibiting early warning signs.
“Several are exhibiting early warning indicators of stress," NDMA said, "particularly in water availability and livestock productivity."
Twelve counties are in the 'Alert' phase, while four—Mandera, Wajir, Kwale, and Kilifi—are in the 'Alarm' phase, where livelihoods are under significant strain.
"These counties require urgent and sustained intervention to prevent further escalation into emergency-level outcomes," NDMA warned. "Without rapid support, the cost of response will increase significantly in both fiscal and humanitarian terms."
Extremely high levels of acute malnutrition have been reported in parts of Mandera, Turkana, and Marsabit. As a result, 810,871 children under the age of five, along with over 116,796 pregnant and lactating women, are acutely malnourished and urgently in need of treatment nutrition support services.
"Alert levels are recorded in several additional counties, indicating widespread deterioration in child and maternal nutrition indicators," NDMA noted.
However, the agency warns that emergency measures alone will not be sufficient. The estimated cost of priority interventions between February and July 2026 stands at Sh57.31 billion, covering safety nets, livestock support, water, health and nutrition, agriculture, education, and child protection.
NDMA further cautions that without timely financing and coordinated national action, intensified water scarcity, deteriorating pasture, and below-normal crop production could deepen food insecurity, strain markets, and escalate humanitarian needs in the months ahead.
"Timely financing and coordinated implementation across sectors will be critical to stabilise conditions, prevent further deterioration, and safeguard national development gains.”
The March–May 2026 long rains are expected to underperform across much of ASALs, with north-eastern counties likely to experience markedly low rainfall. The projection follows the poor performance of the October–December 2025 short rains, signaling that water stress, food insecurity, and livestock pressure could persist well into the second quarter of the year.
"If the forecast materialises, we expect water sources to dry up earlier than usual, forcing households and pastoralists to travel longer distances for water," NDMA noted.
"This will also increase reliance on boreholes, water trucking, and emergency interventions, driving up operational costs."
Depressed rainfall is also expected to affect livestock and pasture. "Livestock body conditions will deteriorate, milk production will fall, and distress sales could rise.
Pastoral households could face serious setbacks if herds continue to decline," NDMA warned.Crop-dependent households in marginal agricultural areas are bracing for below-average harvests. This is expected to increase market dependence, push up staple food prices, and strain household purchasing power.
NDMA is calling for urgent preventive measures, noting that without scaled-up interventions, several counties may remain in crisis, with high-risk areas edging toward emergency conditions.
