A new wave of massive green hydrogen projects planned across Africa, primarily for export to Europe, is sparking a critical debate.
A recent report from Global Energy Monitor (GEM) highlights that the continent risks repeating a historical "colonial" pattern by funnelling its vast solar and wind potential into a speculative foreign market. At the same time, its own energy poverty crisis persists.
However, experts on the ground argue that, with careful strategy, the hydrogen boom need not come at Africa's expense. “European companies and governments backing green hydrogen on the continent need to be transparent about the gamble they are taking,” says Julie Macuga, a researcher at Global Energy Monitor.
"Where hydrogen projects are proposed, people should have the autonomy to decide what types of energy and exports are best suited for them."
The central concern is diversion. With more than 600 million Africans lacking access to electricity, the GEM report notes that 61 per cent of the continent's planned utility-scale renewable energy projects are earmarked for hydrogen production rather than for local grids.
The projects, often larger than a country's entire existing power capacity, remain largely speculative; only 9 per cent are under construction, and most lack confirmed buyers. Critics highlight the historical echo, as already, European firms own 65 per cent of the proposed African projects, and the most profitable parts of the value chain will likely be captured abroad.
A clear supply-demand equation fuels the export drive. According to Daniel Njoroge Thuo, an Energy Economist and Director of Policy and Research at The Africa Utility Forum, Africa's potential for green hydrogen is larger than anywhere else in the world. He notes that the essential clean energy sources such as solar, wind, and geothermal, are more abundant on the continent than in Europe.
Conversely, Daniel points out that Europe's ambitious 2030 climate targets will require it to import millions of tonnes of green hydrogen, creating a ready market.
"Production costs of green hydrogen are higher in EU markets as compared to Africa," he adds, citing advantages like raw material proximity and lower labour costs that make African exports economically attractive.
From a Kenyan vantage point, however, the picture is more nuanced. Dr Bilha Eshton Gitonga, a Senior Lecturer in Chemical Engineering at The Technical University of Kenya, says the narrative that renewable power would be “solely for green hydrogen” does not automatically apply.
“With proper grid integration and strong policy frameworks, green hydrogen projects can expand renewable capacity while simultaneously supporting national electricity supply,” she notes.
For Dr Gitonga, the key question is not whether to pursue hydrogen, but how to do so. She argues that the most significant risk for Africa lies in exporting raw hydrogen, a hazardous, hard-to-transport gas, rather than capturing its value locally.
"It makes far more economic and strategic sense for Kenya and Africa to prioritise local conversion of green hydrogen into value-added products," she states.
Africa faces real hurdles in setting up beneficial hydrogen development. Producing hydrogen is water-intensive and demands significant power and capital. Dr Gitonga identifies clear priorities to avoid harm, stating that Africa must “prioritise grid expansion, ensure affordable and reliable electricity, and allocate a significant share of renewable energy for domestic use before committing power to exports.”
Julie underscores the emphasis on meeting local needs first. "Small, distributed wind and solar projects have proven effective in addressing energy access in Africa, with millions benefiting from these projects."
As Dr Gitonga observes, the answer lies in proactive government action to mandate local value addition and safeguard resources. Similarly, Daniel concludes that the outcome hinges on today's strategic policy choices.
“Cross-border electricity trade policy will actualise wholesale electricity trade markets, which are real-time as opposed to the traditional existing market of a constant cost over a period of time,” he advises.
