Rising global temperatures are increasingly threatening agriculture, according to a joint report by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which warns that climate change is expected to alter land suitability for different crops.
In addition, extreme heat has pushed natural and agricultural systems closer to their physiological limits, disrupting productivity and ecological balance across multiple sectors. “For the most common livestock species, stress begins at above 25 °C,” the Extreme Heat and Agriculture report noted, “while chickens and pigs are particularly vulnerable because they are unable to cool themselves through sweating.”
In aquatic ecosystems, the situation is equally severe, as rising water temperatures reduce oxygen levels, placing fish under extreme physiological stress. The marine environment is already showing clear signs of this pressure. More than 90 percent of the global ocean experienced at least one marine heatwave in 2025, according to the FAO-WMO report, reflecting the scale at which extreme heat is now affecting ocean systems.
On land, rising temperatures are killing crops in the field. For most major agricultural crops, yield declines begin to occur above 30 °C, with even lower thresholds for more sensitive crops such as potatoes and barley. Moreover, rainfall is becoming harder to predict, droughts are more prolonged, and growing seasons are less reliable. What was once guided by experience and seasonal rhythm is now increasingly shaped by uncertainty.
In Kenya, these changes are already being recorded in stark terms. According to the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) State of Climate Report 2025, temperatures have been increasing across the country, reflecting a steady warming trend that is placing pressure on ecosystems and livelihoods alike. “Extreme weather events have become more frequent and intense,” the report stated. This pattern is disrupting farming cycles and exposing communities to repeated climate shocks.
Across the country, these shifts are playing out unevenly. Some regions are experiencing heavier-than-usual rains that trigger floods and destroy crops, while others endure prolonged dry spells that leave soils parched and unproductive. “Rainfall distribution has been highly variable in both space and time,” KMD reports, underscoring the growing unpredictability that farmers must now navigate.
Years of overuse, deforestation, and unsustainable farming practices have left many soils degraded, less fertile, and more vulnerable to erosion. According to the FAO-WMO report, land degradation is eroding the foundations of global food systems, reducing soil fertility and weakening the ability of land to sustain agricultural production.
This traps farmers in a destructive cycle. With declining yields, many are forced to expand or intensify cultivation on already stressed land, further accelerating degradation and deepening long-term vulnerability in already fragile farming systems.
For smallholder farmers, who form the backbone of Kenya’s agricultural sector, the stakes are especially high. They are among the most exposed to climate variability, with limited resources to adapt, and are heavily reliant on rain-fed agriculture. According to experts, the situation has resulted in lower harvests, rising food prices, and growing pressure on rural livelihoods. “Climate variability and change are already affecting key sectors of the economy,” Kenya’s State of Climate Report stated.
Extreme heat is also closely linked to the escalation of wildfires. According to FAO-WMO report, this creates additional pressure on ecosystems already weakened by drought and land degradation. Human health and labour are also directly affected, as agricultural workers, who often spend long hours outdoors, face growing exposure to unsafe conditions. The report notes that in parts of South Asia, tropical sub-Saharan Africa, and Central and South America, the number of days each year when it is simply too hot to work may rise to 250, raising serious concerns about livelihoods and productivity.
The global report also links shifting weather patterns to challenges in water supply, health, and infrastructure. The margin for resilience is narrowing in a country where arid and semi-arid lands dominate. However, the report emphasises that sustainable land management practices can increase resilience to climate change. Practices such as agroforestry, conservation agriculture, and soil restoration offer a way to rebuild degraded lands while strengthening their ability to withstand climate shocks.
“Soils play a critical role in food production and climate regulation,” the FAO-WMO report noted.
Beyond supporting crop growth, soils act as natural systems that store carbon, retain moisture, and sustain the ecosystems that agriculture depends on.
