Did President William Ruto deliberately set up the Mbeere North by-election scheduled for November 27 to test the strength of his Mt Kenya loyalists?
Political commentators believe so. They argue the President did not miscalculate in inviting competition with his archrivals in a region already hostile to his administration.
Given his access to reliable intelligence, they say Dr Ruto knew what he was walking into and must have deliberately done so because he had another motive.
President Ruto chose the constituency in Embu to appoint its then MP, Mr Geoffrey Ruku, into the Cabinet, with his subsequent resignation in April occasioning the by-election.
"By the time the Head of State was arriving at that decision, emotions were high in Mt Kenya against his government following the October impeachment of Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua. Embu County had already assumed the face of defiance against his rule. Residents had booed him twice since the impeachment," argues Prof Peter Kagwanja.
President William Ruto chats with Public Service CS Geoffrey Ruku at Runyenjes town in Embu County on April 4, 2025 during his tour of Mt Kenya region.
Photo credit: Joseph Kanyi | Nation Media Group
“It is from the same county where the President has got himself into conflict with his former Attorney-General and Public Service Cabinet Secretary Justin Muturi,” Prof Kagwanja adds, referring to Mr Muturi, whose sacking from Cabinet earlier in March had escalated the tension with Dr Ruto.
"The President who has confessed to being a consumer of raw intelligence was well aware that his popularity as well as that of his United Democratic Alliance (UDA) had plummeted and Mt Kenya was no longer his political bastion that he had conquered by garnering 87 percent in the 2022 General Election," Prof Kagwanja argues.
The scholar contends that it is not far-fetched to deduce that the President must have been very deliberate in creating a by-election in Embu County.
Embu political analyst, Mr Malila Munywoki, says, "It caught us by surprise that the President could be so daring.”
“It must have been for a reason. He must have been after getting certain truths about his political fortunes in the area,” he suggests.
The analyst believes that the by-election is a test for Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, UDA Chairperson Cecily Mbarire, who is also the Embu governor, and Mr Ruku, among other Mt Kenya leaders who supported the impeachment of Mr Gachagua.
Deputy President Kithure Kindiki (left) former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and President William Ruto.
Photo credit: File | Nation Media Group
After impeaching Mr Gachagua, the President picked Prof Kindiki as his new deputy in a move that was seen as trying to pacify the region.
Alternatively, the move was widely seen as a ploy to try curve out his political base in a breakaway Mt Kenya East comprised of Embu, Tharaka Nithi and Meru, which are perceived as Prof Kindiki's turf.
Given that President Ruto has confessed that the majority of Mt Kenya elected leaders pressured him to allow the Gachagua impeachment, Mr Munywoki says the impeachment aftermath and appointment of Prof Kindiki did not appear to achieve the set objectives.
Instead, Mt Kenya appears to have sympathised with Mr Gachagua for his ouster tribulations and rallied around his cause.
Speaking in Murang'a on September 15, Mr Gachagua said, "The objective by President Ruto was to factory reset Mt Kenya politics by doing away with key political pillars and establish his own for complete capture".
“It is for that reason he had me impeached, went for Muturi, (former Agriculture CS) Mithika Linturi, (former) Inspector-General of Police Japheth Koome and many others,” he said.
“This by-election in Mbeere North is a technical one and we have to get it right. I beseech our people to be wise about it," Mr Gachagua said.
The Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) party leader shocked many of his supporters by opting out of the by-election and instead supporting the candidate fronted by Mr Muturi's Democratic Party.
This has thrown the government off balance, with Mr Ruku lamenting: “Mr Gachagua is a coward who goes around proclaiming to be Mt Kenya kingpin but could not field a candidate here to offer us proof.”
But DCP women league leader Cate Waruguru says the government side is complaining because it had hoped to reap from opposition divisions.
"Why is Mr Ruku and his government not celebrating the lack of big competition in the contest and using the advantage to win the seat?" she poses.
Former Laikipia Women Rep Catherine Waruguru at a past event.
Photo credit: File | Nation
“President Ruto trapped his area loyalists to prove to him that Mr Gachagua's impeachment worked, Mt Kenya East can be a government block and that the opposition has no influence in Mt Kenya," Ms Waruguru reckons.
“Since the united opposition will most likely win that seat with a landslide, President Ruto will use the loss as an excuse to start pursuing a 2027 alliance outside rebellious Mt Kenya and most likely kick out those from Mt Kenya in his Cabinet and incorporate new allies capable of adding value to his re-election bid," she opined.
Mr Muturi explained DCP’s decision to step down from the race, saying: "Mr Gachagua is in the thick of things and is the one who read right the trap and, in his foresight, sanctioned a private opinion poll to settle on the most winnable candidate, hence settling on withdrawing DCP from the race."
Prof Kindiki, in a bid to secure the seat for the ruling outfit, had brokered talks involving the nine aspirants seeking the UDA ticket to arrive at one candidate.
Mr Ruku, on his part, says, "The game has now changed to selling the government candidate on development agenda while trashing the opposition as a conglomerate of failures.”
But Mr Muturi counters: "We are selling the liberation cause that seeks to reject abductions, extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances, state capture, corruption and general collapse of the focus that founders of our nation had of fighting poverty, illiteracy and disease in pursuit of quality life".
The aspirants for the seat are Leonard Muthende (UDA), Newton Karis (DP), Duncan Mbui (Chama Cha Kazi), Jacob Ireri (Jubilee) and Isaak Muringi (United Progressive Alliance).
Deputy President Kithure Kindiki (third right) Public Service CS Geoffrey Ruku (second right) and Embu Governor Cecily Mbarire during the unveiling of Leonard Muriuki Muthende (second left), the UDA candidate in the upcoming Mbeere North by-election.
Photo credit: DPCS
The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) said the campaign period is between October 8 and November 24.
Nomination-related disputes will be handled between October 8 and October 17, election agents submitted to IEBC by November 11, and nomination and registration held between October 8 and 9.
The pre-nomination meeting is scheduled for October 3, while independent candidates must submit their names and symbols by September 17.
The battle for the seat in 2022 was intense since Mr Ruku (DP) had won it by 647. He had polled 17,069 against Mr Muriuki Njagagua's 16,422 votes on UDA ticket. Mr Patricio Njiru of the Jubilee Party garnered 2,390 votes while Njuki Ngari of the Devolution and Empowerment Party (DEP) got 1,873 votes, defining yet another close contest in the high-stakes by-election.
