Even before the Speaker of the National Assembly, Moses Wetang’ula, formally declares the Kasipul parliamentary seat vacant, political activity in the constituency is already gathering momentum.
Ambitious aspirants eager to seize the opportunity are traversing the region in a bid to woo voters and secure support ahead of the anticipated by-election.
Among the early contenders is Boyd Were, son of the late Kasipul Member of Parliament (MP) Charles Ong’ondo Were, who was murdered in Nairobi.
Mr Were has seized the political moment, launching his campaign in earnest during a period when his closest rival, businessman Philip Aroko, was in police custody.
Mr Aroko had initially been detained as a suspect in the murder of Mr Were’s father before his status shifted to that of a state witness.
During his confinement, he was barred from travelling to Homa Bay County, a restriction that inadvertently granted Mr Were the advantage of time and space to engage with constituents uninterrupted.
Although Mr Aroko was released just last week, he is yet to return to Kasipul, where Mr Were continues to hold meetings and court political favour.
The two men have swiftly emerged as the principal contenders in what promises to be a fiercely contested by-election. Political analysts in the region suggest that the outcome will likely be influenced by several key factors: the dominance of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), the intricacies of clan loyalties and the financial strength of the candidates.
Political commentator Samuel Odiwa opines that the public’s perception of the late MP will also play a significant role in shaping the race.
“Now that Mr Aroko has regained his freedom, he may use this clean slate to reclaim the trust and support of voters. During his detention, political propaganda may have been employed to discredit him. But with the Directorate of Criminal Investigations having exonerated him, his prospects could very well be revitalised,” Mr Odiwa observed.
He further noted that Mr Aroko had been the only declared challenger to Mr Ong’ondo for the 2027 General Election and was widely seen as a credible threat.
“His return to the political stage unburdened by legal constraints could galvanise his base. With the shadows of suspicion now lifted, he may campaign with renewed vigour,” he added.
However, the legacy of the late MP continues to cast a long shadow over the contest. Allegations had swirled during his tenure that he sponsored goons to intimidate dissenting voices, claims that some politicians are likely to weaponise against his son in the looming political duel.
“Voters held mixed opinions about the late Charles Ong’ondo Were. While some revered him as a hero and may naturally gravitate towards his son, others viewed him with suspicion and may rally behind alternative candidates,” said Mr Odiwa.
He warned that this divergence in public sentiment could invite new contenders to exploit historical grievances as campaign ammunition.
Another pivotal player in this political theatre is the ODM party, which holds considerable sway in the region.
Party chairperson and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga has already pledged to campaign for the party’s flagbearer in the by-election. Shortly after Ong’ondo’s burial, she convened meetings in Kasipul, accompanied by Mr Were, a move that did not go unnoticed by the electorate.
“There’s a growing perception among voters that the party is attempting to impose a candidate. ODM must tread carefully. A candidate who enjoys broad-based support must be chosen. Should the party conduct chaotic or biased nominations, it risks a significant backlash,” he warned.
