ODM Party Leader Oburu Oginga, Deputy Party leaders, Simba Arati and Godfrey Osotsi during the ODM@20 anniversary at Mama Ngina Waterfront in Mombasa on November 15, 2025.
By the time the curtains fell on the West Kabras Ward by-election on Friday at 12.30 am, an uneasy whisper had already begun to ripple across the political landscape of Kakamega, a stronghold of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) Party.
What was once a bastion of Orange resolve now seems to be flickering under the gathering clouds of uncertainty.
When the Returning Officer, Salim Abdala, stepped forward to announce the result, it was met with a sense of finality. The ODM flag bearer, Mr Edward Inzofu Indimuli, trailed behind, securing only 30 votes - a humbling tally that spoke louder than any post-election rhetoric.
In contrast, President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party emerged as the clear winner, tightening its grip on the Western voting bloc with calculated precision.
Mr Elphas Kainanga Shalakha carried the UDA standard to victory with 3,317 votes, fending off a spirited challenge from Mr Bramwel Wasike Khaemba of the Democratic Citizens Party, who amassed 2,640 votes in a bruising contest laced with mutual accusations of voter inducement and orchestrated unrest aimed at suppressing turnout.
Returning officer Salim Abdala declares Elphas Shalakha of UDA West Kabras MCA-elect.
Yet beyond the triumph of UDA lay another telling subplot. The strong showing by DCP in what had been considered UDA terrain signalled the growing footprint of a party associated with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.
Having already clinched Kisa East Ward in the November 27, 2025, by-election, the party’s march into Western Kenya now appears less incidental and more strategic, a deliberate recalibration of regional power dynamics.
To make matters worse, ODM was eclipsed by newcomer fringe parties, including National Economic Development Party of former Nairobi governor Mike Sonko, whose candidate, George Musini Mukhwana, emerged in third place with 199 votes. Mr Shivokha Masini of Democratic National Alliance Party came in second with 79 votes, while Nivah Musa Khisa of Democratic Action Party of Kenya came in fourth with 65 votes.
While the Kabras area, and by extension Malava constituency, has not predominantly supported Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), the party founded by former premier Raila Odinga, ODM has not been known for backing down from a contest. It would go for a seat and win it.
Its influence in Kakamega County cannot be wished away. The 20-year-old party had eight out of the 12 MPs in Kakamega, elected on its ticket in the last General Elections in the 2022 General Elections.
However, many questions have been raised about how easily the party has ceded ground to other parties, including its partner in the broad-based government, UDA, in this vote-rich county.
It is now emerging that personal ambitions, national party dynamics, and disputes within ODM party's Kakamega branch may have been the downfall of its candidate, which is likely to reduce the party's influence in the upcoming general elections.
While many attribute ODM's dismal performance to the withdrawal of their candidates a week before the by-elections, even this move highlights a weakness that is not usually associated with ODM.
It seems that Mr Indimuli was under pressure from internal and external ODM forces not to continue with his campaign.
President William Ruto’s aide, Farouk Kibet, was keen to win the seat. He was frequently seen campaigning for the UDA candidate alongside Malava MP, David Ndakwa.
President William Ruto’s personal assistant Farouk Kibet.
According to political observers, Kibet is said to have been behind the move by the ODM candidate to withdraw his candidature and back the UDA candidate Mr Shalakha in the spirit of the ‘Broad-based’ arrangement.
This was also supported by ODM chairperson for Malava Constituency, Leonard Kasaya leaving the candidate with no option.
"When one withdraws from a contest, it is not out of weakness. I am aware of the challenges Indimuli has been facing and I was not ready to continue seeing him suffering. That is why we have decided that it is no longer tenable for the two candidates to face each other yet we are in the broad based government," said Mr Kasaya.
However, Mr Indimuli attributed his withdrawal from the race to frustrations from his party’s leadership at the county level in his efforts to vie for the seat.
He alleged that he has been harassed by senior party officials in the county, including Governor Fernandes Barasa and county MP Elsie Muhanda, putting his life and that of his family in danger, and disrupting his efforts to continue campaigning in the area.
“I step down to support a young man I employed at some point and also mentored. I do this to protect my life and from today I will be confronting Governor Barasa and Elise Muhanda within ODM because they are to blame for my predicament. How can Barasa bring goons forcing me to sleep in the sugarcane plantation outside my house,” said Mr Indimuli.
Kakamega governor Fernandes Barasa addressing ODM delegates from the county at Bishop Nicholas Stam Pastoral Centre on August 25, 2025 where they unanimously, by show of hand, confirmed him as their chairman during party elections.
Many wondered why ODM nominated and cleared a candidate yet they fail even to campaign for him.
The by-elections came at a time when senior ODM leaders were preoccupied with their internal wrangles revolving around working with President Ruto in 2027.
Mr Barasa is not seeing eye to eye with his predecessor and former ODM Deputy Party Leader, Wycliffe Oparanya and this has split ODM into two factions in the county.
Mr Oparanya, the Cabinet Secretary for Cooperatives, is said to be leading a section of elected leaders dubbed the G8 who are against the incumbent Governor.
Mr Indimuli's problems were compounded by the strained relationship between the two after it emerged that he was fronted by Mr Oparanya.
ODM supporters feel the wrangling is likely to cost the party more seats, especially at a time when there is no clear agreement on the zoning of traditional ODM strongholds.
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