The race for the Mombasa governorship is steadily taking shape, with Governor Abdulswamad Nassir facing a growing field of politicians seeking to wrest the county's top seat from ODM after three terms of dominance since devolution.
Mr Nassir, who is seeking a second term, is already facing declared challengers, including UDA Secretary-General Hassan Omar, Nyali MP Mohamed Ali, and former Kisauni MP Ali Mbogo. Former Nyali MP Hezron Awiti is also associated with the race, while EALA MP Suleiman Shahbal is positioning himself for another attempt at the seat.
The emerging field is giving Mombasa one of the more closely watched gubernatorial contests at the Coast ahead of the 2027 General Election.
But with political alliances still shifting, the final line-up is far from settled. The proposed cooperation between President William Ruto's UDA and ODM, including discussions on political zoning, could determine whether the race becomes a two-horse contest or remains crowded, with several candidates dividing the vote.
For Mr Nassir, the immediate task is to defend his record and secure the ODM ticket while navigating an increasingly fluid political environment. The governor has been highlighting investments in healthcare, education and infrastructure as evidence of his administration's performance.
He has cited the construction of Mjambere and Bofu hospitals, plans for additional facilities in Mikindani and Kongowea, and efforts to decongest the Coast General Teaching and Referral Hospital.
In education, he says the county provides Sh5,000 in support to pupils in public schools, in addition to food, while ECDE learners do not pay fees and have received learning materials.
Politically, Mr Nassir has also embraced discussions between ODM and UDA, arguing that cooperation and zoning could help the Coast avoid destructive political competition. He said Coast leaders from the two parties had held a series of meetings before agreeing to support the broad-based arrangement and limit internal political rivalry.
"We have a bigger challenge that is ahead of us," Mr Nassir said, arguing that the region needed to avoid politics that could polarise the Coast.
"The first zoning that was done was at the presidency. What is the purpose of us having a conversation that we are going to be working together, and not be able to combine our strengths and work on our weaknesses, so that, again, like-minded triumphs over unlike-minded?" he said.
Mr Nassir said politics is ultimately a game of numbers, and that voters should judge leaders by what they have delivered.
"How you get the numbers is how you convince people to vote for you. How you convince people to vote for you has many factors, the most preferable of which I advocate for is: what have I done? Why are you voting for me? Why do I stand for ODM?" he asked.
The most direct challenge to Mr Nassir is likely to come from Hassan Omar, the former Mombasa senator and current UDA secretary-general. Mr Omar narrowly lost to Mr Nassir in the 2022 gubernatorial election and has since remained active in Mombasa politics.
His position as UDA secretary-general gives him a national political platform and access to the party's grassroots structures as he campaigns for President Ruto and seeks to strengthen his own bid for the governor's seat.
Mr Omar has been holding grassroots meetings across the county to popularise his candidature, and has made it clear that he does not intend to surrender the race through a negotiated political arrangement.
"We are going to play this political game in a way that has never been seen in Mombasa. And it is not just because we are seeking victory for [ourselves] and others in UDA, but because of where Mombasa has reached, we must seek leadership that has integrity, vision and action," he said.
Speaking during a UDA grassroots meeting in Likoni recently, Mr Omar rejected zoning, arguing that voters should be allowed to choose their leaders rather than have candidates determined through negotiations between political parties.
"Let us unite and choose our leaders freely. In Kwale, we have seen that ODM does not want zoning; we in UDA also do not want zoning. We have nothing to fear. We cannot be dictated to by anyone; we will make our own decisions. The people of Mombasa have said that 15 years is enough; we are tired," he said.
Mr Omar has pointed to his political journey — which includes serving as a student leader, human rights activist, senator, EALA MP and now UDA secretary-general — as evidence of the experience he brings to the contest.
"Among all the candidates for the Mombasa governorship, I am the best-suited candidate," he said, accusing Mr Nassir of a lack of development projects.
If ODM and UDA fail to agree on a common candidate, Mr Omar's candidature could set up a repeat of the 2022 contest, when he emerged as Mr Nassir's closest challenger.
Nyali MP Mohamed Ali during a function at Khadija Secondary School in Mombasa on January 21, 2026.
Photo credit: Kevin Odit | Nation Media Group
Nyali MP Mohamed Ali, popularly known as "Jicho Pevu," has added another layer to the contest after publicly declaring his intention to seek the governor's seat on a Wiper ticket.
The former investigative journalist is seeking to build his campaign around his record as Nyali MP, pointing to roads, schools, street lighting, security and education as some of his achievements. Mr Ali has sought to distinguish his campaign from the politics of personalities and political kingpins, arguing that voters should judge leaders on their record.
"We will meet on the battlefield without the late ODM leader Mr Raila Odinga's coat to hang on. Let's see who will win then," he said.
His entry could complicate efforts to consolidate the opposition vote behind a single challenger to Mr Nassir. Mr Ali has the backing of opposition figures including DCP leader Rigathi Gachagua and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, giving his candidature a political network beyond his Nyali constituency. Whether he can translate that support into a countywide coalition will be one of the key questions as the race develops.
Shahbal: The repeat contender
Suleiman Shahbal during a past event.
Photo credit: File
Mr Shahbal is another familiar figure preparing for another attempt at the governor's seat. The businessman has contested the Mombasa governorship several times and has previously run under Wiper, Jubilee and ODM.
In 2022, he withdrew from the race after persuasion from former President Uhuru Kenyatta and the late ODM leader Raila Odinga, eventually paving the way for Mr Nassir. This time, Mr Shahbal says he will not step down.
"I will vie in a party that upholds democratic principles. Mombasa needs transformation, and I am ready to offer that leadership," he said.
Mr Shahbal has anchored his renewed campaign on what he describes as economic transformation, promising to attract investors, create jobs and improve public services. He has also highlighted unemployment and drug abuse among young people as some of the county's most urgent challenges.
"Our young people have lost hope. Many are trapped in drugs and crime. This is a society crying out for change," he said.
He has proposed allocating Sh50 million annually to each ward for development projects targeting health, youth empowerment, women's programmes and security.
On education, Mr Shahbal has criticised the state of public schools and disparities in university transition rates, while also promising to strengthen healthcare services by upgrading referral facilities and improving access to quality care.
"Mombasa should be the Dubai of East Africa. That transformation is possible if we change our mindset and leadership approach," he said.
Although he remains associated with ODM for now, Mr Shahbal says he is monitoring political formations before deciding which party will carry his candidature.
"The party must demonstrate real democracy. I am watching all formations closely before making my final decision," he said.
Mbogo: Linked to Linda Mwananchi
Mr Mbogo is also preparing for an attempt at the governorship. The former Kisauni MP planned to contest the seat in 2022, but a last-minute decision by the Wiper Party to hand the ticket to former Nairobi Governor Mike Sonko saw him become the proposed running mate. The two did not make it to the ballot after the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) declared that Mr Sonko was not eligible to vie for political office because of his impeachment as Nairobi governor.
He has declared his intention to challenge Mr Nassir and is currently associated with the Linda Mwananchi movement through the Jubilee Party. His campaign is centred largely on removing Mr Nassir from office, with Mr Mbogo criticising the county administration over what he describes as poor service delivery.
Mr Awiti, meanwhile, has previously been active in Coast politics and is among the politicians being watched as the field takes shape. He has vied for the seat since 2017, without success.
Healthcare, unemployment, education, sanitation, land, infrastructure and service delivery are likely to dominate the campaigns, with each challenger seeking to present himself as the candidate capable of delivering a break from the current administration.
Political observers note that the influence of former Governor Hassan Joho will also be key. Mr Joho, now Cabinet Secretary for Mining and Blue Economy, remains a major figure in Coast politics, and his position on the 2027 contest could influence ODM's calculations.
