The July 16, 2026 mini-poll to elect the next member of the National Assembly for Ol Kalou Constituency will be a defining moment for both the government and the Opposition in the battle for the political soul of Mt Kenya.
The battle pits Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, his predecessor and DCP Party leader Rigathi Gachagua, and Jubilee Party leader Dr Fred Matiang’i.
Mr Gachagua says the by-election will be a "referendum" on how Mt Kenya will vote in 2027, arguing that no party should cede ground for others.
Prof Kindiki is expected to lead the campaign for President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) Party, while Dr Matiang’i is riding Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party. The seat fell vacant following the death of David Kiaraho on March 29, 2026 at the age of 63. He had been elected on a Jubilee Party ticket. Ol Kalou constituency is in Nyandarua County.
Mr Kiaraho was serving a third term after clinching the seat with 24,058 votes in the last election. His closest challenger was UDA's Kamau Ngotho with 19,380 votes.
Former Ol Kalou MP, the late David Kiaraho.
Photo credit: File | Nation
Since his impeachment in October 2024, Mr Gachagua formed the DCP, and has made clear his intention to command where Mt Kenya votes will be cast.
The big complication is that Jubilee and DCP are among several others who are members of the United Opposition. Mr Gachagua and Dr Matiang’i are thus competitors for the Opposition’s presidential ticket.
For a president who received 87 percent of Mt Kenya votes in 2022, his major worry is that Mr Gachagua might erode that popularity in 2027, defining the hard work that Prof Kindiki faces in the region.
Gachagua versus Matiang’i?
Presidential hopeful Dr Fred Matiang'i
Photo credit: File | Nation
That intricate scenario has brought out underlying issues, especially in the United Opposition where the most vicious fight is between Mr Gachagua and Dr Matiang’i.
According to Jubilee Party Deputy Leader Jeremiah Kioni, the seat should go back to his party as a matter of political goodwill among partners.
“This is a test of our unity even in the search for one presidential aspirant to carry the collective flag of the Opposition. There is an unwritten law that bides us to respect each other’s territory in times like this. Jubilee party should be given a chance to complete its term in Ol Kalou like had been the intention in the Mbeere North by-election where we let the Democratic Party gain monopoly of contest,” Mr Kioni said.
But Mr Gachagua has called it bluff, saying the DCP must field a candidate, revealing that already he has nine candidates to choose from.
“There are certain grey areas in our relationship as United Opposition that need being made definite. There are competitions under the surface that need to be reconciled by the people. There are those who say they are the most ideal. It is important that we square it now and have the doubts rest. DCP is ready to face all interested so that we can get those answers that we leave for speculation,” Mr Gachagua said.
He added that he will not fall for the "collective responsibility" trick that saw him withdraw his Mbeere North candidate for the November 27, 2025 by-election, only to end up defeated as he campaigned for DP’s candidate.
“It cannot be that Gachagua mobilises and hands over results to others. I also need those results. For Ol Kalou, sorry, we meet on the ground,” the former DP said.
Kindiki: I have the mountain
Deputy President Kithure Kindiki addresses a public rally at Mwatate Town in Taita Taveta County.
Photo credit: DPCS
Meanwhile, Prof Kindiki must be studying the raging conflict between Jubilee Party and DCP to strategise on how to get the better of the area’s 73,000 registered voters.
“I have seen this man who keeps on bragging that he has the mountain… Saying he will decide where the area votes will go. A bully full of bravado and demeaning mindset. I am coming to that Ol Kalou and I will prove to him who has the mountain,” Prof Kindiki said recently.
He added: “That man Gachagua must learn to respect me like I tried to make him do in the Mbeere North by-election where I floored him”.
Already, Prof Kindiki has announced that UDA has 10 candidates lined up for nominations.
In the Mbeere North by-election, a zone initially perceived to be an Opposition stronghold, the race ended up in government candidate Leo Wamuthende's win with a 494-vote margin. This was after the candidate who Mr Gachagua had withdrawn, Mr Duncan Mbui, contested on a Chama Cha Kazi Party led by President Ruto’s ally Mr Moses Kuria. Mr Mbui received 2,000 votes.
That erosion of Opposition unity was blamed for the UDA win, although it has been contested in court.
Already, Mr Kuria has expressed intention to get involved in the Ol Kalou by-election. So has former Starehe MP Maina Kamanda, who told the Nation that the mini-poll should be made an all fight affair to help the country identify with the real ground passions.
“There's a lot of conjecture about what party and which leader has the mountain. This is the opportunity to get those answers. No party should step down for the other. If you feel you have the mountain, take your party and candidate there,” he said.
