The hottest year is here- but this is why some regions are not feeling the heat

One thing that has become abundantly clear in the global climate community is that the world is becoming hotter.  

To anyone else, it might be absurd, especially now when, according to the most recent weather forecast by the Kenya Meteorological Organization (KMO), some pockets of the country, including the highlands west of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin and the Rift valley, are expected to experience minimum temperatures of up to eight degrees Celsius.

The overall picture of our global temperatures, scientists say, is concerning, and that global warming will increase climate extremes, impacts and risks.

State of climate

To recap:  2023 was the warmest year on record. Data released last year by the WMO indicates that it was the hottest year on record since temperature records started being computed in 1850. The previous hottest year was 2016.

At the ongoing COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has released the State of the Climate 2024. Again, it is a red alert. The world is becoming hotter. In fact, since 2015, the temperatures have been increasing and 2015-2024 will be the warmest decade on record, they say.

From January to September 2024, for instance, global mean surface air temperatures were 1.54 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, an analysis of six datasets by WMO shows. 

This era refers to the baseline levels of global temperatures and atmospheric conditions before the start of large-scale industrialisation, and is used as a reference point because industrial activities, particularly the burning of fossil fuels like coal, oil, and gas, began to significantly increase atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, which trap heat in the atmosphere and contribute to global warming.

Closer to home, in September, an analysis done by Climate Central, an independent organisation that analyses reports on climate science, showed that Nairobi and Mombasa experienced a spike in temperature, five times higher than usual for 83 and 59 days respectively between June and August this year. They attributed climate change to the rise.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasised the far-reaching impact of this climate crisis, noting its threats to health, sustainable development and global peace.

He pointed out that the most vulnerable populations, particularly in low-income regions, bear the brunt of these changes, facing greater risks of displacement, food insecurity and health issues.

This year has shown that climate calamity is now commonplace.

“That means global emissions falling by nine per cent a year to 2030. It means phasing out fossil fuels – fast and fairly – and delivering on the COP28 outcome. And it means every country putting forward new, economy-wide national climate action plans – or Nationally Determined Contributions – by COP30, that align with the 1.5 C objective,” he told the delegation.

“As monthly and annual warming temporarily surpass 1.5 degrees Celsius, it is important to emphasise that this does not mean that we have failed to meet the Paris Agreement goal to keep the long-term global average surface temperature increase to well below two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit the warming to 1.5 degrees Celcius,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.

She added: “Recorded global temperature anomalies at daily, monthly and annual timescales are prone to large variations, partly because of natural phenomenon such as El Niño and La Niña. They should not be equated to the long-term temperature goal set in the Paris Agreement, which refers to global temperature levels sustained as an average over decades.”

Climate Action spoke to Chris Hewitt, Director of the climate services at the WMO, who unpacks the report and explains why some quarters don’t feel the heat:

Tell us a bit about the state of climate right now

We get six data sets from around the world to give us information about the temperature and so far we are seeing that 2024 is on track to be the warmest year on record. This follows last year, which at the moment is officially the warmest year on record, so two very warm years in a row.

What does it mean when you say the warmest year?

We take all of these observations of temperature in this case and average them over the whole planet. The warming compared to pre-industrial at the moment is 1.54 degrees Celcius. We average this for the whole planet, but there will be differences in different parts of the world. This average isn't necessarily representative of individual countries such as Kenya, or my country, the United Kingdom, but as a global average at the moment.

So with 1.54 degrees Celcius, we have already reached the Paris threshold?

No, the Paris Agreement is about long-term warming. So the warming does vary from year to year. We do see quite a little variability from year to year.

The Paris Agreement holds for a longer period, decades, 20 to 30 years. We need to average over those longer periods. So if we average over those longer periods, the warming isn’t as great.

We are currently estimating that it's about 1.3 degrees over a longer period.

How do you explain the differences whereby you say it's the warmest year on record but some parts of the country are not feeling this heat?

Yes, so this is very confusing. Parts of the world, particularly the high latitudes, so the North Pole, and South Pole, have been warming more than that average. Other parts of the world, because it’s an average, have been warming less. So the 1.54 degrees Celcius doesn't mean everywhere, that's an average over the whole planet. But individual countries will have different numbers.

 A warming world… does that mean more heatwaves?

As the planet is warming, we would expect to be seeing more heatwaves, and also those heatwaves to be more extreme, because the temperatures in those heatwaves will get warmer.  A particular hot period for a few days or weeks won't necessarily be groundbreaking. But warming the planet does lead to there being a chance for these more extreme heatwaves. So we are very worried about this.

If this year, as we are saying, is the warmest, what does the prediction for 2025 show?

We are saying it's on track to be the warmest, so if 2024 does turn out to be the warmest year on record, that doesn't necessarily mean that 2025 will be as warm or even warmer. We'll have to wait and see. There are other factors in the climate system that make it get slightly warmer or slightly colder.

So this year, for example, and also to some extent last year, was largely because of the El Nino events in the tropical Pacific. El Nino events tend to make the planet slightly warmer. And then the counterpart, La Nina, tends to make it slightly cooler.

As we increase the greenhouse gas concentrations, we will expect the atmosphere to keep on warming. 

There's a perception, particularly in East Africa, that El Nino brings rain and flooding, and La Nina brings drought

This is becoming more and more of an important question. Because as we are seeing this gradual, long-term move, it is upsetting the way that we're seeing these events happen. So yes, traditionally, there are certain parts of the world during an El Nino event where it would be wetter. But there have been many parts of the world where the El Nino event hasn't necessarily followed that traditional pattern. So this is where we then need to rely on the national meteorological and hydrological services to issue the weather forecasts.

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