According to the 2025 National Assessment Insights under CBE, the inaugural cohort that began Grade 3 in 2019 with 1.28 million learners has shrunk to 1.13 million by Grade 9 in 2025.
The Kenya National Examinations Council (Knec) has sounded an alarm over retention gaps in the Competency‑Based Education (CBE), revealing that more than 151,000 pioneer learners dropped out before transiting to Grade 10.
This year, some 1.1 million Grade 9 learners transited to senior school. The learners were placed in Senior School based on three pathways: Social Sciences, Arts and Sports, and Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM).
However, thousands of others never got the chance to transition to senior school.
According to the 2025 National Assessment Insights under CBE, the inaugural cohort that began Grade 3 in 2019 with 1.28 million learners has shrunk to 1.13 million by Grade 9 in 2025. This represents a retention rate of 88.17 per cent, meaning 151,691 learners have exited the system before completing junior school.
The data shows that while transition rates remain high at lower levels, retention weakens as learners progress.
For instance, in 2022, 1.25 million learners sat the Grade 6 Kenya Primary School Education Assessment (KPSEA), representing a retention rate of 97.77 per cent from Grade 3. By Grade 9, however, the figure had dropped sharply.
“Transition rate of 96.90% where the cohort enrolled 1,306,992 learners in Grade 3 2022 compared to 1,266,521 in the 2025 KPSEA,” said KNEC Quality Assurance Director Joseph Githinji.
KPSEA is administered in Grade 6 to evaluate the level of mastery of competencies among learners and provide entry behaviour as they transition to Junior School (JS).
UNICEF education specialist, Polycarp Otieno, urged the state to ensure the thousands of learners who are not in school are enrolled to ensure 100 per cent transition.
“This is a crisis, when children do not learn, productivity reduces,” said Mr Otieno.
The assessment data also revealed worrying gender trends. In 2019, girls accounted for 47.1 per cent of Grade 3 learners. By Grade 6 in 2022, the proportion remained relatively stable at 47.2 per cent. But by Grade 9 in 2025, girls had dropped to 43 per cent of the cohort, compared to 45.1 per cent for boys.
This decline suggests that girls are disproportionately affected by dropout, pointing to socio‑economic and cultural barriers that hinder their progression through junior school.
Pupils at Mboto Sunrise Primary School work on their competency-based curriculum assignment under a tree.
“In 2019, Grade 3 KEYA, there were 604, 522 girls against 677, 628 totaling 1.28 million, showing a 100 per cent retention. In 2022, at Grade 6 there were 604, 964 girls and 648, 613 boys totaling 1.25 million, which was 97.77 per cent retention. But in 2025, the girls dropped to 551, 829, and the boys similarly dropped to 578, 691 totaling 1.130 million retention remaining at 88.17 per cent,” said Mr Githinji.
The report further highlights a growing number of overage learners in basic education, warning that they consistently lag behind their peers under the Competency‑Based Education (CBE) system.
According to the overage learners struggle to meet expectations across most subjects, underscoring the need for timely school entry, targeted remediation, and differentiated instructional support.
Out of 36,591 schools assessed, 65.8 per cent were public and 34 per cent private, with 1.3 million learners enrolled. Gender distribution showed near parity, with boys accounting for 50.9 per cent and girls 49.1 per cent.
Age distribution, however, revealed worrying disparities. While 69.9 per cent of learners were age‑appropriate (8–9 years), 24.5 per cent were overage, and 5.4 per cent were underage.
KNEC Deputy Director Quality Assurance, Mr Joseph Githinji, said age‑appropriate learners consistently outperformed both underage and overage peers across all tasks.
“Age‑appropriate learners outperformed other age categories across all tasks. ASAL counties such as Garissa, Mandera, Turkana, Wajir and Tana River had over 50 per cent of overage learners,” he said.
Data shows that learners demonstrated strong performance in practical, oral, and project‑based tasks across most learning areas. However, persistent gaps were observed in theoretical, abstract, and literacy‑heavy strands, notably grammar, reading comprehension, mathematics, and selected strands in social studies and religious education.
Girls generally outperformed boys in literacy‑based tasks at higher performance levels, while boys were more represented in the “Below Expectation” band.
Mr Githinji said this pattern was consistent across grades. In Grade 4, 27.9 per cent of learners were overage, while in Grade 5 the proportion rose to 31.5 per cent. In both grades, age‑appropriate learners dominated the “Meeting Expectation” category, while overage learners clustered in “Approaching” and “Below Expectation.”
The 2025 Kenya Primary School Education Assessment (KPSEA) showed strong transition rates, with 96.9 per cent of learners moving from Grade 3 in 2022 to Grade 6 in 2025. Enrolment stood at 1.2 million, with boys at 51 per cent and girls at 48 per cent.
Yet age disparities persisted. At Grade 6, 37 per cent of learners were overage, compared to 59 per cent age‑appropriate and 2.4 per cent underage. “Near‑universal coverage and strong transition rates confirm system stability under CBE. Gender parity has been achieved, but overage enrolment, especially in ASAL counties, remains a concern,” said Mr Githinji.
At the junior school level, the disparities widened. In Grade 7, 42 per cent of learners were overage, while in Grade 8 the figure dropped to 20 per cent. The inaugural 2025 Kenya Junior School Education Assessment (KJSEA) measured competencies required for transition into senior school pathways STEM, social sciences, arts and sports.
Grade Five pupils at Molo Academy Primary School in Nakuru County revise outside their classroom ahead of the Competency-Based Curriculum Assessment on February 1, 2022.
Of the 1.13 million learners assessed, 51.2 per cent were boys and 48.8 per cent were girls. Age distribution showed 56.8 per cent were age‑appropriate (14–15 years), 36.7 per cent overage, and 3.1 per cent underage.
Performance varied widely across subjects. Learners excelled in Agriculture, Kiswahili, Creative Arts, and Home Science, but struggled in Mathematics and Kenyan Sign Language. Girls and age‑appropriate learners consistently outperformed boys and overage learners, who were more concentrated in the “Approaching” and “Below Expectation” categories.
Significant disparities were also noted among learners with disabilities. Hearing‑ and visually‑impaired learners recorded high “Below Expectation” rates in languages, mathematics, and integrated science.
“Equity gaps remain pronounced, especially for overage learners and learners with disabilities, particularly those with auditory and visual impairments. This highlights the need for strengthened inclusive education practices and differentiated instruction,” said Mr Githinji.
He stressed that learners with disabilities can achieve high competency levels when adequately supported, underscoring the importance of accessible learning resources, assistive technologies, and teacher capacity building.
Knec called for sustained national commitment to school‑based assessments, early identification of learning gaps, and instructional interventions tailored to learner needs. Mr Githinji urged stakeholders to provide targeted support for overage learners, enhance teacher capacity in learner‑centred pedagogies, and strengthen integration of theory and practice in teaching.
“Build teacher competence in competency‑based teaching and assessment approaches. Focus on improving learner progression from Approaching Expectations to Meeting Expectations,” he said.
He added that while CBE is yielding strong outcomes in hands‑on, applied learning, reinforcement of foundational theory and conceptual understanding is urgently needed, particularly in language, numeracy, and arts literacy.
Despite strong transition rates and near‑universal coverage, the persistence of overage learners threatens equity and quality in Kenya’s education system. In ASAL counties, where poverty, insecurity, and cultural practices often delay school entry, the problem is most acute.
Applied subjects continue to perform better than theory‑heavy areas, but large proportions of learners remain just below full competency, particularly in mathematics and Kenyan Sign Language.
“CBE is on track, but targeted action is needed in literacy, numeracy, equity, and teacher capacity,” said Mr Githinji.
He said age‑appropriate learners consistently outperform their peers, calling for support for overage learners in schools, strengthening of teacher capacity, and ensuring differentiated instruction across all to achieve equity under CBE.
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