Farmers are among the first beneficiaries of President William Ruto’s promised reforms in the agriculture sector, as they prepare to receive the subsidised fertiliser the new administration plans to release from next week.
However, the gains are likely to be diluted by the hard economic times consumers will face after the end of the fuel and maize flour subsidies.
Agriculture experts and maize farmers in the North Rift region, the country’s food basket, have said the 1.4 million bags of subsidised fertiliser that will be sold at Sh3,500, down from Sh6,500, will cushion growers from high production costs and transform the sector into a profitable investment.
“The increased cost of farm inputs has forced many farmers to plant their crops without fertiliser this season. This has reversed some of the gains made in reforming the sector, which forms a major part of the economy of the country,” said Ezekiel Kosgei, an Eldoret-based agronomist.
\The Ministry of Agriculture has forecast that this season’s maize harvest will be 32 million 90kg bags, 20 per cent less than the projected 40 million bags.
Kenya’s maize production has fluctuated in the past eight years, with the highest being in 2018 with 44.6 million bags and the lowest in 2017, when the country produced only 35.4 million bags of the staple food.
Farmers produced 40.7 million bags in 2013, 39 million in 2014, 42.5 million in 2015, 37.8 million in 2016, and 39.8 million in 2019, according to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics.
Last season, Kenya harvested 33 million bags, down from 44 million bags last season as farmers battle the high cost of fertiliser in the global market.
According to annual agriculture reports, the Rift Valley region has continued to experience low yields, with production declining from 27 million bags to 21 million bags last year.
Several factors, ranging from erratic rainfall, high cost of farm inputs, disease outbreaks such as fall army worm, head smut, and a repeated outbreak of maize lethal necrosis, have contributed to the decline in maize yield.
In Tran Nzoia, considered a traditional food basket, the county department projects a decline of about 800,000 bags of maize due to delayed rains during the planting season. The harvest is projected to decline to 4.8 million bags as compared to projected 5.6 million bags last season.
“It is becoming increasingly difficult to break the vicious circle of high production cost against unsteady market prices, signalling a tough economic season for maize farmers,” said Eliud Kibet from Kerita farm, Kesses division in Uasin Gishu county.
According to the World Bank’s fertiliser price index latest report, high energy costs coupled with high natural gas and coal prices have pushed up the cost of fertiliser, a key element for food crop production. Global environmental regulations have led to increased prices of raw materials such as sulphur and ammonia, which are used to manufacture fertiliser.
“Fertiliser prices will remain volatile due to the global market forces of supply and demand, which might force some farmers to plant without the nutrients,” said Henry Ogola, an expert in importation of farm inputs.
The country requires about 650,000 tonnes of fertilser annually.
The World Bank’s latest report, the Kenya Economic Update, indicates that the fertiliser subsidies majorly benefit affluent farmers and distribution companies.
It also said high energy costs and tight supplies by the largest producers such as China have pushed the prices beyond the reach of most smallholder farmers.
The latest report by Kenya Economic Update found that fertiliser use remains inadequate in the country, with the government subsidy programme often benefiting medium and large-scale farmers.
“Reforming fertiliser subsidies to ensure that they are efficient and transparent, and target smallholder farmers remains key in restoring productivity,” said the report.
Although farmers expect to get some relief from the government’s promised reforms in the agricultural sector to cushion them from high production costs and sub-standard farm inputs, they will have to dig deeper into their pockets due to the anticipated rise in the cost of basic commodities with the ending of the fuel subsidies.
According to economists, the new approach will see fuel prices being determined by the force of supply and demand in the global market, and this is likely to hurt consumers.
“Cultivation of crops such as maize and wheat is a mechanised process. The withdrawal of the fuel subsidy will result in increased fuel prices, which will push up the overall operating costs of farm equipment,” said Mathew Koech, a land economist and farmer from Saos in Nandi county.
It costs a farmer Sh4,500 to plough an acre of land, while the production of a 90kg bag of maize is estimated at Sh1,700. This makes it the highest cost in the East African region.
“Consumers will have to shoulder the increased cost of farm produce and other processed products, which will push up the cost of living,” added Mr Koech.
The International Monetary Fund had asked retired President Uhuru Kenyatta to end the fuel subsidy by October this year.
