The Ministry of Agriculture is grappling with mounting uncertainty in sourcing fertiliser from the Middle East, one of the country’s key fertiliser sources, due to the ongoing US-Israel war against Iran that threatens to disrupt this season’s planting calendar in maize-growing zones.
Agriculture Principal Secretary Dr Paul Kiprono Rono said the conflict, now in its third week, has disrupted the supply of fertiliser, resulting in acute shortages of the vital farm input as maize farmers embark on the planting exercise, and has destabilised the international market for the country’s tea products.
He said the logistics disruption caused by the blocking of the Hormuz Strait by Iran has hurt the supply of fertiliser into the country, resulting in an outcry by farmers over shortages.
“The conflict has forced shippers to divert to longer, safer routes through South Africa, which has delayed the arrival of imported fertiliser. However, we expect more consignments to dock at the Port of Mombasa to boost supplies and address the shortages,” said the PS during a farmers’ engagement forum in Kapsabet, Nandi County.
Middle Eastern countries—Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar and Oman—are key suppliers of fertiliser to Africa, with Kenya importing large quantities of the commodity through the Port of Mombasa.
However, disruption of strategic maritime corridors as a result of the conflict is likely to hurt this critical supply source.
Dr Rono disclosed that the government has so far distributed five million 50-kilogramme bags of fertiliser through National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) depots and last-mile centres.
The government-subsidised fertiliser goes for Sh2, 500, as opposed to Sh5,400 in the retail market, but the programme has occasionally been hit by scandals.
The country requires 650,000 tonnes of fertiliser annually for optimum production, but the supply chain has, since independence, been marred by scandals.
“It is our appeal that the government will not use the Middle East crisis to allow unscrupulous traders to flood the market with substandard fertiliser and subject farmers to heavy losses,” said Kipkorir Menjo, a director at the Kenya Farmers Association (KFA), during a farmers’ meeting in Eldoret.
Kenya in 2024 imported fertiliser valued at US$99.39 million from Saudi Arabia, while in 2021 it imported a total of 792,670 metric tonnes, with a substantial portion sourced from Middle Eastern, Russian and North African markets.
Kenya has been a battleground for control of the fertiliser sector, with Russia’s PhosAgro, Saudi Arabia’s Maaden and Morocco’s OCP Africa controlling major market shares.
According to the PS, the Middle East conflict has adversely affected the country’s tea sales in the international market and smallholder farmers’ incomes.
“As a result of the conflict, which has caused tensions and triggered uncertainty, we are looking for alternative markets for our tea in Pakistan, China, Egypt, the United Kingdom, among other countries, to sustain international trade opportunities,” said Dr Rono.
He also disclosed that the Scientific Tea Testing Centre in Mombasa will be commissioned next month, marking a shift from traditional ‘tongue’ testing to scientific evaluation of tea quality and pricing.
“The transition from traditional tasting to scientific analysis will ensure accuracy and fairness in the categorisation of tea based on quality,” he added.
According to analysts, traders and policymakers, the Middle East crisis could destabilise the local economy in the coming months unless there is an end to hostilities.
Among the sectors likely to be hardest hit are fertiliser and agricultural exports—especially tea and livestock—as well as petroleum, aviation and tourism.
“The Iran war and the broader Middle East geopolitical conflict could see Kenya lose over 20 per cent of its Middle East export market,” said George Omuga, Managing Director of the East African Trade Association (EATA).
He explained that logistics costs are likely to skyrocket, while depressed demand for tea at auctions could negatively impact prices and smallholder farmers’ incomes.
“The disruption caused by Iran blocking the Hormuz Strait may further affect the 40 per cent of exports to Pakistan, potentially leading to a collapse of the tea sector if hostilities between the US-Israel alliance and Iran persist,” he added.
The Mombasa auction depends heavily on buyers from Iran, Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and other Middle Eastern markets, and any reduction in purchases could affect millions of smallholder farmers.
According to the Tea Board of Kenya (TBK), total earnings from tea in 2024 amounted to Sh215.21 billion, of which Sh181.69 billion came from exports, Sh18 billion from local sales and Sh15.52 billion from committed stocks.
Pakistan remains the leading export destination for Kenyan tea, having imported 206.27 million kilogrammes, accounting for 34.7 per cent of the total export volume, valued at Sh70 billion.
Other key export destinations include Egypt (86.90 million kilogrammes worth Sh23.96 billion), the UK (57.44 million kilogrammes valued at Sh16.99 billion), and the UAE (30.50 million kilogrammes valued at Sh10.27 billion).
Russia (28.46 million kilogrammes, Sh7.43 billion), India (17.13 million kilogrammes, Sh3.94 billion), Saudi Arabia (15.92 million kilogrammes, Sh6.02 billion), Yemen (14.13 million kilogrammes, Sh5.52 billion), Iran (13 million kilogrammes, Sh4.26 billion), and China (12.42 million kilogrammes, Sh2.73 billion) are also key markets.
