Moment of truth for Gachagua

Apart from President Ruto and Mr Gachagua, the outcome of the case is also likely to affect the political aspirations of Wiper Patriotic Front boss Kalonzo Musyoka and Jubilee deputy party leader Fred Matiang’i, the two United Opposition presidential hopefuls.

It would be a big win for Mr Gachagua should the court quashes his impeachment. Such a decision would open door for compensation and benefits running into millions of shillings for the former second-in-command. 

Mr Gachagua was voted out of office after serving barely for 24 months. His gross salary was about Sh1.2 million, comprising basic salary of Sh736,313, house allowance of Sh300,000 and official commuter allowance, among other perks. The Retirement Benefits (Deputy President and Designated State Officers) Act, 2015, also assigned him a monthly pension equal to 80 per cent. 

In his court fillings, he wants to paid his full salary and benefits for a five-year term as well as benefit from retirement perks upon end of the five-year term.

But most importantly, a win in court would clear him to run for any political office, including the presidency in the 2027 polls. It would also hand political legitimacy, crucial for his political ambition. 

Analysts believe that the country’s political landscape is likely to change dramatically should he win the case and choose to run for the top seat.

United Opposition candidate

First, it would offer him a platform for a direct faceoff with President Ruto. However, for the United Opposition, it could trigger reorganization.

Several opposition figures are increasingly looking at Mr Gachagua as a kingmaker, banking on his endorsement to strengthen their chances against Dr Ruto. Him choosing to run is likely to trigger major realignments that could see some of those in the opposition shift alliances.

Initially, Mr Gachagua appeared disinterested in running for the presidency, partly because of the debate of his eligibility to contest as a result of the impeachment, with indications that he was favouring Mr Musyoka to be the United Opposition candidate. 

Mr Gachagua himself has since announced that he would run. His pronouncement has, however, been taken in the context of normal political posturing by politicians within the United Opposition before they can settle on a joint flag bearer to face off with Dr Ruto.

However, in the event the court dismisses his petition, Mr Gachagua has indicated his plan to appeal such a verdict.

Speaking on Sunday after attending a prayer service at the Presbyterian Church of East Africa (PCEA) in Karen, Mr Gachagua expressed optimism and appeared to praise the Kenyan judiciary system even before the decision is made.

“I have confidence that our judiciary is independent, is impartial and will give justice to Rigathi Gachagua and millions of his supporters across the county.  If the ruling goes the other way, it is still okay. We will still have an opportunity to go to the Court of Appeal and follow the legal remedies that have been provided by the constitution,” Mr Gachagua said.

Mr Gachagua, who has expressed interests to unseat President William Ruto in the 2027 general elections, maintained that he was kicked out of office unconstitutionally.

“I was removed from the office against the law, and against the constitution. The case has been heard and the ruling will be issued tomorrow. We are ready for whatever outcome. If the three judges rule that we were treated unfairly and against the law and the constitution and lift the impeachment, and let us be, we shall be grateful to God and we shall be very grateful that there is a justice system in Kenya that works.”

Read: Gachagua opposition dilemma: Why former Deputy President has muddied the waters 

The DCP party leader asked his supporters to remain calm and peaceful ahead of the ruling, adding that irrespective of the outcome, his supporters will be law-abiding citizens.

“When I was removed from office, the people who removed me were laughing, that Rigathi has been removed and his supporters are saying nothing. It is me who told them to say nothing. I asked my supporters to suppress their anger because we are peaceful people and we believe in doing things peacefully,” he said.

“I want to ask our supporters who are angry with what is happening in Kenya not to do anything that is violent, anything that is against the law. I asked them to suppress their anger but keep it. Next year, they will an opportunity to express their anger at the ballot,” he added.

Justices Anthony Mrima, Eric Ogolla and Frida Mugambi are set to deliver the ruling.

Mr Gachagua has stated that President Ruto will only be removed if the opposition remains united and willing to forgo their own interests. 

However, he stated that he is the best person to prevent President Ruto from seeking a second term in office.

“If we win, we will thank God, if we don’t, we will still thank God for His mercy and greatness. This country is bigger than anyone of us and we still need a peaceful country and life must go on irrespective of injustices that has been meted against many people, irrespective of many sufferings that Kenyans are undergoing.”

Mr Dismas Mokua – a political analyst – cautions that a Gachagua presidential bid, if cleared by the court, could benefit President Ruto.

He says a crowded opposition field would split anti-government votes and make it easier for the incumbent to secure a second term.

Ruto’s re-election chances

That possibility places Mr Musyoka in a difficult position. Having waited for decades while backing opposition causes and supporting Raila Odinga in previous elections, the Wiper leader is seen as determined to pursue his own presidential ambitions in 2027.

Mr Mokua says asking Mr Musyoka to step aside for Mr Gachagua would be politically costly and potentially career-defining.

“Mr Musyoka’s core base will look for a new leader if he abandons his presidential interests,” Mr Mokua said.

If Mr Musyoka, 72, backs Mr Gachagua, it could delay his dream for another 10 years and erode the political capital he has accumulated.

The opposition has repeatedly told Kenyans that they will avoid the 1992 mistakes. Each has been rallying for support, but with a commitment to back one candidate once they carry out nominations.

“We as Linda Mwananchi have resolved that we will not be used to make Ruto to secure a second term. We are convinced that there is no other formula apart from a united ticket against William Ruto,” ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna has been quoted as saying.

But even with the promises, there are still fears that their competing interests could see them split. There are also fears that the State could sponsor multiple candidates so as to boost President Ruto’s re-election chances.

Such schemes have been exploited in the past to hand incumbents an easy win. Both retired Presidents Daniel Moi and Mwai Kibaki deployed such tactics in 1992, 1997 and 2007 to divide the opposition that initially presented a united front, only to split in the run-up to the presidential race.

In 1992, efforts to have a united opposition coalition in the multiparty era flopped dramatically, giving then-President Moi another term in office.

The giant Ford that had led the country in the battle to move Kenya from Kanu’s single party rule could not front a single candidate to face Mr Moi.

Read: 2027 irony: President with falling approval facing disunited Opposition 

The competing interests in the movement led to the emergence of splinter parties with Mr Kenneth Matiba forming Ford-Asili and Mr Jaramogi leading Ford-Kenya. Mr Kibaki, another key opposition politician, ran for the presidency on his then Democratic Party ticket.

In the end, Mr Moi garnered 1,927,645 votes against Mr Matiba’s 1,354,856. Mr Kibaki polled 1,035,507, while Mr Oginga got 903,886. The figures show the opposition would have easily floored Mr Moi should they have fronted a joint candidate.

It was the same script in 1997, even after the ‘Hilton Agreement’ that indicated that all opposition candidates would renounce their claim to the presidency and consider a joint ticket.

Mr Moi again won against a disjointed opposition that fielded four candidates. Mr Moi polled 2,500,865 votes, followed by Mr Kibaki (1,911,742), Mr Raila Odinga (667,886), Mr Kijana Wamalwa (505,704) and Ms Charity Ngilu (488,600), among others.

In 2007, a united Orange movement that beat Mr Kibaki in the 2005 referendum split in the run-up to the presidential race, handing the incumbent a second term in the contest poll that plunged the country into a deadly post-election violence.

The split saw then Lang’ata MP Raila Odinga part ways with then Mwingi North MP Kalonzo Musyoka. Mr Musyoka led a group of ODM Kenya supporters, mainly from Eastern Province while Mr Odinga’s camp included fellow ODM presidential aspirants William Ruto, Musalia Mudavadi, Najib Balala and Joseph Nyagah.

Mr Kibaki of PNU won a re-election after polling 4,584,721 votes against Mr Odinga’s 4,352,993 and Mr Musyoka’s 879, 903.

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