They may be “small” elections, but the political stakes could not be higher.
As official campaigns close tomorrow, November 24, ahead of the Thursday, November 27, by-elections, leading political figures – including President William Ruto , the United Opposition team led by his former deputy Rigathi Gachagua , and Oburu Oginga’s ODM party – find themselves in a catch-22 in the hotly contested seats.
Kenya heads into the 24 by-elections, a cluster of local contests whose outcomes could dramatically reshape the country’s national political landscape ahead of the 2027 polls.
What ordinarily passes as routine constituency and ward races has morphed into an acid test for the country’s most powerful political figures – President Ruto, Mr Gachagua, Deputy President Prof Kithure Kindiki , Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, and the post-Raila Odinga leadership of ODM.
According to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), 181 candidates have been cleared to contest across the 24 electoral units, including the Baringo Senate seat, six constituencies – Mbeere North, Malava, Kasipul, Ugunja, Magarini, and Banisa – and 17 County Assembly wards.
But beneath the IEBC paperwork lies a brutal political war for control, influence, messaging, survival – and, in some cases, identity.
The most hotly watched battlegrounds – Mbeere North and Malava – have turned into a direct confrontation between President Ruto and Mr Gachagua, who now leads the United Opposition.
Deputy President Kithure Kindiki with UDA’s Mbeere North candidate Leo Muthende, at a campaign rally at Kyenire Trading Centre in Embu County on November 22, 2025.
Photo credit: DPCS
In Mbeere North, Dr Ruto has assigned his deputy, Prof Kindiki, the task of securing victory for the ruling coalition, effectively turning the race into a referendum on the DP’s political weight in Mt Kenya East and, by extension, his viability as Dr Ruto’s running mate in 2027.
President Ruto’s close aide, Farouk Kibet, has spent weeks in Malava, managing UDA’s ground operations as if the constituency were a national contest.
On the other side, Mr Gachagua – ousted from government power but now building momentum as a counterweight to Ruto – is backing candidates under the United Opposition lineup.
Malava, where his United Opposition partners have fronted a strong contender, is a defining test of whether the former deputy president can cut into Ruto’s traditional strongholds.
Political analysts say a defeat for Dr Ruto’s side in either Mbeere North or Malava would “puncture the narrative of government dominance” and energise Gachagua’s rising movement.
Conversely, losses for the United Opposition would undermine its legitimacy as a serious political force.
Mr Dismas Mokua, a political analyst, says: “Both camps have a serious assignment to bag the crucial seats.”
Mr Mudavadi is also under pressure. Malava lies in his Western Kenya backyard, and his political future hinges on whether he can mobilise the region despite the growing popularity of the opposition.
DAP-K has fielded Seth Panyako, secretary-general of the Kenya National Union of Nurses – an aggressive challenger whose campaign has gained traction.
UDA is backing David Ndakwa. Failure by Mr Mudavadi to secure the seat for UDA would raise questions about his relevance within the Kenya Kwanza power matrix.
DCP leader Rigathi Gachagua campaigns for Mbeere North parliamentary candidate Newton Kariuki at Kanyuambora Trading Centre on November 16, 2025.
Photo credit: Joseph Kanyi | Nation Media Group
The mini-polls will also serve as the first significant electoral test for ODM following the death of its leader, Raila Odinga, on 15 October in India.
ODM’s symbolic strength and emotional pull have long been tied to Mr Odinga’s personal influence. Party leaders are now rallying supporters to honour “Baba’s last blessings,” with ODM leader Dr Oburu Oginga revealing that Mr Odinga personally approved candidates, including Boyd Were (Kasipul), Moses Omondi (Ugunja), and Harrison Kombe (Magarini), shortly before his passing.
“A loss for ODM in these seats would send troubling signals about the party’s standing in the post-Raila era,” argues Mr Mokua.
National Chairperson Gladys Wanga has urged voters to “elect ODM candidates to honour the legacy and sacrifice of Raila Amollo Odinga.”
A fierce political battle has erupted in Mbeere North, turning what is ordinarily a local contest into a national test of strength between President Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza administration and the newly consolidated United Opposition led by Mr Gachagua.
The by-election - triggered by the appointment of Geoffrey Ruku as Cabinet Secretary – has become the most symbolic of the 24 mini-polls scheduled across the country.
It features UDA candidate Leonard Wamuthende, backed by Prof Kindiki, against the Democratic Party’s Newton Kariuki (Karish), supported by Gachagua’s opposition coalition.
This weekend, UDA rolled out its full machinery in Ngunyumu and Kune, rallying behind Wamuthende. Deputy President Kindiki framed the race as a referendum on development continuity, urging residents to vote for the UDA candidate to safeguard ongoing government projects.
“We know he will continue with tarmacking roads, electricity connections, water projects, and bursary management as well as Ruku did– if not better,” Kindiki told supporters, dismissing Gachagua’s presence in the constituency as divisive.
Deputy President Kithure Kindiki with UDA’s Mbeere North candidate Leo Muthende, at a campaign rally at Kyenire Trading Centre in Embu County on November 22, 2025.
Photo credit: Joseph Kanyi | Nation media Group
Embu Governor and UDA chairperson Cecily Mbarire urged residents not to “walk into opposition,” saying electing an opposition MP would derail development. Wamuthende promised equitable bursary allocation and the creation of an education fund while dismissing Gachagua’s personal attacks on his family as “politics of hate.”
In a counteroffensive, since Monday, Mr Gachagua has embarked on an intensive door-to-door campaign, framing the contest as a battle for political liberation. In early-morning walks that double as fitness routines, he has been meeting villagers “home by home, village by village” to market Kariuki.
“For the next nine days, I am on the ground, listening and engaging the people of Mbeere North,” he said, insisting the opposition would deliver UDA a humiliating defeat.
But the race turned turbulent after Democratic Party leader Justin Muturi filed a formal protest to IEBC, alleging deployment of “state-backed armed goons” ferried from Nairobi and Thika to intimidate voters and sway the poll.
Mr Muturi accused the operatives – allegedly shielded by police officers in civilian clothes – of plotting to invade polling stations in Kariuki’s strongholds.
Government spokesperson Isaac Mwaura dismissed the allegations as “sideshows by people sensing defeat,” but the IEBC has not publicly responded.
Analysts say the Mbeere North contest is more than a parliamentary race – it is an acid test of influence in Mt Kenya and a barometer of the 2027 political landscape.
