From left: Edwin Sifuna, John Mbadi, Winnie Odinga, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, ODM leader Oburu Oginga and President William Ruto.
Interpreting the late opposition supremo Raila Odinga’s final wishes and vision has turned into a major political tool that could influence both the 2027 presidential race and succession within his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
For the last month, following his death on October 15, key political figures, including President William Ruto and opposition leader Kalonzo Musyoka, have continued invoking his name in an attempt to shape who will inherit his huge political support base.
Two camps have since emerged: one seeking to preserve his long-held legacy of opposition politics and the fight for social justice and democracy, and the other pushing for ODM to embrace new political realities under the current broad-based arrangement for the party to maintain the staus quo.
At the same time, some of those who had always been accused of hanging on Mr Odinga’s coattails to win influence and electoral seats are still invoking his name even as critics say the next polls will leave them exposed.
Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka.
On Saturday, Mr Musyoka once again re-ignited debate with fresh claims that had Mr Odinga at the centre. He said the veteran politician did not support the sending of ‘experts’ to the broad-based government, and that Cabinet Secretaries Opiyo Wandayi, John Mbadi, Hassan Joho, Wycliffe Oparanya, and Beatrice Askul — all former top ODM leaders — went to the government “on their own.”
“Ruto had been grabbed by his throat by the Gen Z (in 2024), and he begged for Raila’s help, but Raila wanted a national convention after speaking to us and the Azimio team. Raila then told Ruto he wanted to go to Dubai and said he will give names when he comes back. But Ruto, apprehensive, called the CSs directly and appointed them to government. Things were bad. In 2023, they almost killed Raila; if it were not for the armoured car, we would have lost him,” said Mr Musyoka in Ugunja on Saturday.
The late ODM leader had, however, previously indicated he had “donated” the top officials to the Ruto administration.
Analysts note that Mr Odinga’s legacy will be conveniently interpreted by factions in ODM, government and opposition to suit their own interests ahead of 2027.
The narratives, analysts note, will influence ODM’s decision to either back President Ruto’s re-election or bolt out of the broad-based government and field a candidate. Mr Odinga’s final political wishes also have the potential to sway how his traditional supporters vote in the 2027 polls.
As late as in his third State of the Nation address on Thursday, President Ruto invoked Mr Odinga’s name, telling a joint sitting of the National Assembly and the Senate how the former premier informed him of his Sh5 trillion “first-world blueprint”.
President William Ruto delivers the State of the Nation address at Parliament Buildings, Nairobi, on November 20, 2025.
“I discussed this vision with the late Raila Odinga, who reminded me that no nation has industrialised without roads, energy, and food security. I have also engaged former President Uhuru Kenyatta, who emphasised the necessity of scaling up infrastructure investments.”
But a top ODM party official, who spoke in confidence since the issue is sensitive, told the Weekly Review there was no clarity on whether or not Mr Odinga would support Dr Ruto’s re-election in 2027.
The official said Raila’s interest was in the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on the implementation of the 10-point agenda and support for the broad-based government until 2027.
“Raila was clear on the kind of engagement he was having with UDA. He refused to enter a cooperation agreement and insisted on signing an MoU to address people-centred issues like compensation of victims of police brutality,” said the official.
In his last public address on September 22, 2025, Mr Odinga reminded ODM members to read and stick to the content of the March 2025 MoU, which he insisted does not cover the 2027 elections.
“We have not passed any resolution as a party to say how we are going to go into the elections of 2027. So, wherever you are, don’t commit the party to anything that has not been discussed,” said Mr Odinga. “Who told you that ODM will not have a candidate in 2027? We have a clear plan that we have negotiated and agreed on; other decisions will be taken when the time comes.”
ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna – one of the fiercest critics of the broad-based arrangement – has since suggested that the party should be guided by what Mr Odinga said in public as opposed to what he told individual party members privately.
Nairobi County Senator Edwin Sifuna during an interview in his office.
“Many people are saying what Baba (Raila) told them in private. Since we are unable to agree on what Raila told each of us separately, let us follow what he told us together in public. He told us to keep ODM as a separate entity,” said Mr Sifuna last weekend during ODM’s 20th anniversary. ODM co-deputy party leader Godfrey Osotsi told the Weekly Review that Mr Odinga talked to many people, but his message remained consistent on his desire for the government to implement the 10-point agenda covered by the MoU.
“Baba (Raila) talked to many people, but he was consistent at all times. People should not contradict him now that he is dead.”
“He was consistent that ODM should strengthen itself ahead of the 2027 elections. That is why he was focused on party elections. The broad-based arrangement is not a coalition. The party will make a decision on how it will approach the 2027 elections at the right time,” said Mr Osotsi.
During Mr Odinga’s burial, ODM National Chairperson and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, Minority Leader Junet Mohammed, Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Nassir, among others, told mourners that Mr Odinga’s final wish was that they continue working with President Ruto.
“We have always followed Raila. The last instructions he left were for us to work with you (Ruto) under the broad-based government,” said Governor Wanga.
Homa Bay Governor and ODM Chairperson Gladys Wanga.
“Our people are holding critical dockets in government. We are in charge of Finance (Treasury CS John Mbadi), we are in charge of Security (Interior PS Raymond Omollo). That is where Raila told us to be.”
On Friday, Mr Mbadi said he had what it takes to be the ‘kingpin.’
“I know where Raila was taking us, the paths he was following; however, I won’t put on his shoes. Rather, I’ll buy shoes that fit me and lead the Luo community the way I know, as we enter Canaan,” he added.
He added: “Raila Odinga carried the light and led our people for over 30 years. He planned to take us to Canaan but unfortunately, he couldn’t reach there. However, we must enter Canaan,” Mr Mbadi said during an empowerment programme in Kisumu on Friday.
Prof David Monda, a US-based university lecturer and political analyst, notes that Mr Odinga, even in life, left many guessing his next political move.
“What was Raila’s masterstroke of not openly showing his political endgame till late in the game has ended up being ODM’s biggest Achilles heel. Because Raila always kept everyone guessing via his tactic of political strategic ambiguity, his sudden demise has left everyone guessing about what he would have wanted for ODM going forward.”
“This is very dangerous for the party because ODM as an institution was not ideologically driven but individually driven by the grand old patriarch that is now not there,” observes Prof Monda.
He notes that some of Mr Odinga’s key allies, including those who joined the Cabinet — such as John Mbadi (National Treasury), Opiyo Wandayi (Energy) and Hassan Joho (Mining) — are keen to remain in Dr Ruto’s corner.
“Revolutionaries want ODM to return to its true founding principles. They want to overturn the apple cart. These are the Sifunas, Babus and Winnie Odingas. They see some people as political opportunists who made a career out of hanging on Raila’s coattails and gaining political benefits,” notes Prof Monda. ODM members critical of the broad-based government and the United Opposition have insisted that Mr Odinga would not have wanted his party swallowed by UDA.
This comes even as Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, a member of the United Opposition, continues to project himself as the most reliable ally of Mr Odinga, who backed him in three successive elections — 2013, 2017 and 2022.
Kitui Senator Enoch Wambua says that Mr Odinga was clear about his engagement with President Ruto. He said that based on the MoU, it was clear that the former premier was not ready to back the President’s re-election bid.
“When I hear people quoting private conversations that they allegedly had with Baba on his position regarding the broad-based arrangement, I shudder. Some of us also had very private conversations with him on the same subject.”
“As leaders, let us all be fair to the country and stick to what Baba said in public. Did he declare that he was in a broad-based government arrangement with Kenya Kwanza? Yes, he did, many times. Did he make a public declaration on the timelines for the arrangement? Yes — up to 2027.”
Mr Wambua, a close ally of Mr Musyoka, said the ODM leader never endorsed President Ruto for a second term in office.
“Did he say, in public, that ODM should strengthen itself and get ready to field a presidential candidate in 2027? Yes, he did. Did he say that Senator Sifuna speaks for the ODM party? Yes.”
Siaya Governor James Orengo.
Siaya Governor James Orengo, who recently praised Mr Musyoka for standing with Mr Odinga for the longest time, said last weekend that it is Dr Ruto who needs ODM.
“We want a government that is accountable and now, as we speak, I dare say, Ruto needs ODM; it’s not ODM that needs Ruto. There are people in the party behaving as if ODM is the one that needs Ruto.”
“The liberation parties in Africa are dying because they forgot the people. I ask the leadership in ODM: it is a party of the people, by the people, for the people. ODM can never be a party for broad-based interests. In law and politics, there’s nothing like that,” Governor Orengo said.
ODM has found itself caught up in ideological differences between those in support of the broad-based government and those opposed to the deal.
Some of the opponents of the agreement had, even before Mr Odinga’s death, indicated that they would bolt out of the party should the outfit decide to back President Ruto’s 2027 re-election.
Mr Nassir says they will ensure the party is solidly behind the broad-based arrangement. He accused critics of going against the wishes of Mr Odinga.
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