Key political figures – within and outside Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) –and mostly younger ones have launched behind-the-scenes machinations to inherit the late former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s vast political bastions, a man who bestrode the country’s political scene like a colossus.
In the grand scheme of things, some of the interested players are eyeing the control of the ODM party as a way of inheriting Mr Odinga’s traditional backyards.
Other players are seeking to plant themselves as the new regional kingpins in the areas that have traditionally backed Mr Odinga.
Within ODM, fierce political current is brewing as some members begin to question why a section of the party’s National Executive Council (Nec) hurriedly installed Mr Odinga’s elder brother, Dr Oburu Oginga – to serve in an interim capacity.
ODM party leader Oburu Oginga.
Photo credit: Reuters
It’s a new generation of ambitious leaders — a mix of elected officials, technocrats, and family members — who are jostling to inherit his formidable mantle.
ODM co-deputy party leader Abdulswamad Nassir says Odinga’s demise has left a big shoe to fit, not only in the ODM party, which is now being steered by his brother, Dr Oburu Oginga, as interim leader, but also in his Nyanza backyard.
Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Nassir addresses party members in Likoni during a meeting at YWCA.
Photo credit: Wachira Mwangi | Nation Media Group
“…the ODM party Nec has designated the Senator of Siaya Oburu Oginga, to be the acting party leader until the top party organs elect a substantive leader to fit in the big shoes left by our departed leader,” said Mr Nassir.
While Dr Oginga temporarily steers the party, there’s intense jostling on who among the new generation of leaders should inherit the community’s political crown. Dr Oginga is aware of the ongoing jostling.
From left: ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna, Interior PS Raymond Omollo, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and Winnie Odinga have all been mentioned in Raila Odinga's succession debate.
“Some people have been asking me that since I'm more than 80 years old, how I'm I going to steer this party. They have also been asking me how we shall handle this succession. I told them that any of the existing ODM leaders have the capacity to steer the party.”
"They all have capacity but there's a saying which goes that leaders emerge just like mushrooms grow. You just wake up one morning and find them grown. So that's how God works by elevating leaders. Even Raila Odinga, there's nowhere the Luo community convened a meeting and elected him as the Luo leader. He just emerged as a leader and that was it," he said on Friday.
A number of names, politicians and technocrats stand out among those positioning themselves as the next face of ODM leadership. This is happening at two levels, the Luo Nyanza front and at the national stage.
Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga eulogises Raila Odinga during the funeral service at Jaramogi Oginga Odinga University grounds in Bondo, Siaya County on October 19, 2025.
Photo credit: Sila Kiplagat | Nation Media Group
ODM National Chairperson Gladys Wanga, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino, Cabinet Secretaries John Mbadi (Treasury) and Opiyo Wandayi (Energy), Odinga’s daughter Winnie and son Raila Jnr, who was on Thursday installed as the family leader, have all been mentioned.
Raila’s political bastions
The wider succession battle for Raila’s political bastions of Nyanza, Western and Coast have also intensified with ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna, Cabinet Secretaries Ali Hassan Joho (Mining, Wycliffe Oparanya (Co-operatives), and President William Ruto himself keen to inherit Odinga’s bastion.
Other Deputy party leaders, Simba Arati (Kisii governor) and Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi, are also waiting in the wings to lead the party.
Edwin Sifuna: Raila said that ODM will be in the ballot in 2027
Mr Sifuna has been a lone voice in the party, criticising broad-based loyalists, even joining the Kenya Moja Movement that seeks to end Dr Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza rule in 2027.
Mr Joho has, however, maintained that he will stand by President Ruto until the next election, even though Mr Oparanya appears “undecided.”
“I assure ODM members that we will support them, because Baba believed in the multiplicity of parties. The strength of ODM matters to me because it is how we are going to have a strong democracy,” President Ruto said during Mr Odinga’s funeral service in Bondo.
ODM, he insisted, “will either form the next government or be a part of the next government. What I will not accept, in honour of Odinga, is people playing with ODM to make it an alienated opposition party.”
President Ruto: ODM will either form or be part of the next government
Dr Raymond Omollo, the Principal Secretary for Interior and National Administration, is a technocrat quietly making waves within the political establishment. Dr Omollo is seen as one of the few in the Ruto administration with deep Luo roots and strategic proximity to power.
Although not overtly political, his influence and network have expanded considerably since joining the Executive.
Some within the ODM orbit suspect he could become a critical bridge between the State and Nyanza in the post-Raila era.
For the succession in Luo Nyanza that has attracted the young turks, Multimedia University of Kenya lecturer Prof Gitile Naituli says that the region has always been Kenya’s political conscience — unyielding, defiant, and morally awake, hence those touted for its leadership must be ready to keep that fire burning.
“Nyanza is the region that has taught Kenya to question authority, to resist oppression, and to defend justice even at great personal cost,” Prof Naituli says.
Safina Deputy Party Leader Willis Otieno agrees that in the absence of Mr Odinga’s towering influence, Kenya’s political field could open up to younger leaders.
“There are so many leaders from Raila’s academy who can take up the leadership but filling his shoes will not be easy. In the absence of that voice, there is going to be a gap that nobody in Kenya can fill because you must start with nine years in detention,” said Mr Otieno.
Once the face of student activism at the University of Nairobi, Mr Owino’s rise has been meteoric and controversial in equal measure. He is, however, facing intense resistance from party insiders who see him as a rebel without a cause.
But no list of potential Raila successors would be complete without Winnie Odinga, the youngest of Odinga’s children and perhaps the most politically visible member of the family after him.
A nominated MP in the East African Legislative Assembly, Winnie has spent years in her father’s political trenches — managing his communication, travel, and campaign logistics.
Embakasi East MP Babu Owino speaks during the World Teachers Day Celebrations at Kenya Science Campus in Nairobi on October 5, 2025.
Photo credit: Lucy Wanjiru | Nation Media Group
“Currently, ODM has three main factions: A revolutionary Babu/Sifuna faction that want to overturn the status quo, moderates like the old guard on Orengo/Nyongo (Siaya Governor James Orengo and his Kisumu counterpart Anyang’ Nyong’o-holding the ideological party) and conservatives like Wanga/Mbadi/Wandayi that want to maintain the status quo,” observes Prof David Monda.
He foresees a scenario of having the revolutionary wing of Babu/Sifuna leaving ODM for another political formation, and moderates and conservatives remaining in-house ahead of the 2027 elections.
Other players in the jostling include National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula and Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, who are keen to boost their stake in the Western Kenya politics. In Nyanza, former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i is also angling for the Nyanza vote basket.
