President William Ruto (left), party leaders Martha Karua (People's Liberation Party), former deputy president Rigathi Gachagua (DCP), Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper) and former ODM leader Raila Odinga.
With the death of former Prime Minister and ODM leader Raila Odinga, Kenyan politics stands at a crossroads.
It was former Vice President Wamalwa Kijana who aptly coined the politics of Railaphobia and Railamania, referring to the vicious opposition and fanatical support that Raila courted.
Rival forces have gathered around the two contradictory scenarios through which political careers have thrived over the years.
Raila’s towering influence dictated alliances, influenced presidential contests, and shaped policy debates.
His absence leaves a vacuum not just within the opposition, or the broad-based government he steered with President William Ruto, but also in the delicate balance that kept the country’s politics competitive and national discourse vibrant.
For political elites and parties, his death is a moment of reckoning — a recalibration of alliances, leadership, narratives, and direction.
Such was his influence that prior to his deal with President Ruto, even the United Opposition led by former deputy president Rigathi Gachagua and former vice president Kalonzo Musyoka had been wooing him.
His political life was defined by persistence through adversity: detention, exile, repeated electoral downfalls, accusations of foul play, mass mobilisation, and eventually influence from the margins into the corridors of power.
His most resonant contributions were in pushing Kenya’s transition from a de facto one-party regime toward multiparty democracy in the early 1990s, and later, his role in securing the 2010 constitution.
Yet, he never achieved the one thing many believed he was destined for: the presidency.
Even so, his moral and political authority loomed large.
“I assure ODM members that we will support them, because Baba believed in the multiplicity of parties. The strength of ODM matters to me because it is how we are going to have a strong democracy,” President Ruto said during Mr Odinga’s funeral service in Bondo on Sunday.
ODM, he insisted, “will either form the next government or be a part of the next government. What I will not accept, in honour of Odinga, is people playing with ODM to make it an alienated opposition party.” The party is split between two factions: one that backs his re-election and another led by Secretary General Edwin Sifuna that opposes his bid for a second term.
Mr Odinga was often the standard-bearer for dissent and mobilisation the opposition.
With his death, some say, Kenya loses a unifying symbol for opposition forces — a personality around whom diverse and sometimes fractious groups gathered.
“In his passing, our nation, our continent, and our world have lost a titan of conscience, a visionary of uncommon resolve, and defender of the defenseless whose legacy will illuminate Kenya's democratic path for all time,” added president Ruto.
In his absence, the vacuum is immediate.
Mr Odinga’s death leaves president Ruto, with whom they were in the broad-based government exposed, and his ODM party battered.
“I have seen people on social media saying that I am a political orphan. But coming here, I have seen a lot of political orphans, a lot of people are crying,” National Assembly Minority Leader Junet Mohamed, a former confidant of Mr Odinga, said in Bondo on Sunday. “So, I will gather all these political orphans and be their chairman.”
According to Mr Mohamed, Mr Odinga’s passing has also affected his critics, noting that even those who used to turn the ODM leader into their political boogeyman had also lost.
Since Mr Odinga’s death, social media has been abuzz with comments suggesting that many ODM leaders have lost a political father figure who guided their careers and anchored the opposition’s voice.
His death hurts Dr Ruto’s broad-based administration that had banked on his support in 2027.
Just on Monday last week, while in Siaya, Deputy President Prof Kithure Kindiki reiterated that a coalition of President Ruto, Mr Odinga and himself would be too formidable to lose the 2027 election.
"I see new political aspirants, they are showing us theatrics on how they will defeat Ruto and Raila Odinga. Is it even possible to defeat the combination of the two?" Prof Kindiki posed.
On Sunday, ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna, who has openly opposed the broad-based government, dismissed claims of ODM party backing president Ruto in 2027.
Mr Sifuna reminded mourners of Mr Odinga's last public pronouncement when he suggested that ODM still had an option to have a candidate in the next poll.
In his last public appearance on September 22, 2027, Mr Odinga reminded ODM members to read and stick to the content of the March 2025 MoU, which he insisted does not cover the 2027 elections.
"This is not the time to push divisive narratives in the party. I will not be part of those who will participate in bringing down ODM. ODM is Baba's biggest legacy; I will do everything to make the party remain united, even in open provocation," said Mr Sifuna.
The ODM leader’s death now means President Ruto must convince the opposition party’s leadership to stick with the broad-based government, even though the strength may not be as solid as when Mr Odinga was alive.
In ODM, which has suffered factional wars ever since Mr Odinga joined president Ruto’s government, there are also fears tensions could further escalate, and this was evident during his burial service on Sunday.
Last week, the party urged unity among its members and convened a National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting on Thursday morning, resolving to back Siaya Senator Dr Oburu Oginga as the acting party leader.
Dr Oginga is seen as a pro-broad-based framework, something that insiders say could boost ODM-UDA 2027 coalition prospects.
Observers opine that without the gravitational pull of Mr Odinga, ideological and factional lines that were temporarily held in check may resurface and intensify.
“Raila’s influence enabled various coalitions — from Azimio to more recent pacts with President Ruto’s government. With him gone, alliances built around his person may fracture or be renegotiated,” argues advocate Chris Omore.
Prior to his death, political analysts expected Mr Odinga — or at least his political formation — to be a principal player in the 2027 elections.
“His sudden absence reshapes that calculus wholly,” argues Prof Gitile Naituli.
Safina Deputy Party Leader Willis Otieno, a former campaign manager for Mr Odinga in the 2017 elections, argues that the impact of Mr Odinga’s loss is “phenomenal.”
“We are talking of a giant who has shaped all our political conversations for the last 30 years. Nobody will sit discussing national politics without factoring in Raila Odinga, either for or against.”
“Many people today owe their positions largely to discussing Raila. He was our political manifesto, whether you are campaigning against him or turning him to be the hate or showing your adoration, so it’s going to be a phenomenal shift in our national and local politics,” says Mr Otieno.
He argues that President Ruto could be the major casualty of Mr Odinga’s loss as the late ODM leader “was the guarantor of his stability.”
“Raila is the one who was able to hold at bay the generation that was pushing for Ruto’s ouster,” he said, in reference to Mr Odinga’s pact with president Ruto following anti-finance bill protests staged by the Gen Zs last year.
He also argues that the politicians whose “campaign slogans have always been that we are going to help Baba (Mr Odinga) nationally, are facing a serious challenge as “there is no Baba to help and so they will have to define their politics.”
President William Ruto chairs a joint ODM–Kenya Kwanza Parliamentary Group meeting in Karen alongside opposition leader Raila Odinga on August 18, 2025.
“To those whose campaign platform has been how much they can abuse Raila and make him the hate figure of that election, there is no Raila you are going to hate or abuse. You must address your people on substance.”
“We are going to see a tectonic shift in our politics based on the vacuum caused by the absence of the enigma,” adds Mr Otieno.
He also noted that without the weight of Mr Odinga’s candidacy, the political field is more open, new faces — especially from younger generations, might emerge.
He went on: “In the absence of that voice, there is going to be a gap that nobody in Kenya at this point can fill. I don’t think we may ever find somebody who can play that role, because you must start with nine years in detention.”
Mr Otieno also justifies Mr Odinga’s reluctance to anoint a successor.
“People expected Raila Odinga to stand up and tell us that this is my preferred choice, it doesn’t happen that way. What Raila Odinga did was to provide a platform to so many Kenyans. Raila’s academy is so huge that the person to fill that gap will come from that academy.”
Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo adds that ODM might face a challenge on how the leaders position themselves in the party and future coalitions.
“This is going to affect politics in a big way. I also believe one of the biggest casualties of Raila’s demise is William Ruto, as this was the guarantor of his government. He was the one keeping things together,” Mr Maanzo says.
He added that there is need to have a leadership that carries Mr Odinga’s dream beyond 2027 elections to make sure “Kenya is secure and goes through an election smoothly.”
Campaign strategies that revolved around Mr Odinga’s persona — appeals to his legacy, reputation as the perennial challenger, promise of fulfilling “unfinished business,” analysts say, will need reinvention.
New campaigns, they believe, will struggle to find similar emotional or symbolic traction.
Many voters who backed Mr Odinga out of loyalty or identity (ethnic, regional, ideological) could also seek a new “lodestar.”
“How they realign — whether toward a successor, another opposition figure, or the incumbent — could be critical in tight races.”
In both national and county assemblies, opposition voices had often rallied around Raila’s stance. Without that central unifier, coordination may weaken, making coalition-building and coordination harder.
Public pressure
Raila had a connection to grassroots movements. His leadership often opened spaces for civic agitation, protests, and public pressure. With his demise, civil society actors may feel a void. The question becomes: who speaks for the “populace” now — and do they have the clout to push government accountability?
For decades, the media narrative — both mainstream and alternative — has centered heavily on Raila: whether as opposition leader, kingmaker, or cause celebre. Moving forward, media attention may shift to younger voices or to regional centers previously overshadowed. The national narrative might become less about “Raila vs the system” and more composite, fragmented, or diffuse.
No political transition of this magnitude occurs without risk. Several cautionary scenarios loom.
Power vacuums breed violence. Kenyan politics already has fault lines along ethnicity, regional inequality, and resource allocation. Raila’s death might embolden hardliners or spark flare-ups in contested regions, especially in Nyanza or Western Kenya, where his influence was strongest.
Should the opposition struggle to reorganise quickly, there is potential for heavy-handed state responses to dissent. In the absence of a formidable national face, some resistance movements may be suppressed or co-opted.
The death of the ODM leader, observers say, could be the catalyst for younger, emergent leaders to reinvent politics and even lead to new alignments.
Advocate Chris Omore says that Kenya indeed stands at a crossroads.
“The political order Raila helped shape is being tested. The next two years will likely be filled with tumult: leadership races, coalition fracturing, emotional politics, realignments around power and identity,” he argues.
Mr Odinga’s death, other analysts say, also offers Kenya an opportunity to transition from a politics too centered on personality toward a more programmatic, institutional, and inclusive democracy.
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