Deputy President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga, seen as frontrunners in the 2022 State House race, are each fighting to shake off the establishment tag.
President Kenyatta’s estranged deputy Ruto says he should only be judged by what he did in the first term. He wants Mr Odinga to take blame for the change of priorities in the second.
However, ODM has said the DP cannot try to run away from Jubilee’s failures by seeking to portray himself as an outsider while taking credit for successes.
Mr Odinga and the ODM party have, in the past few weeks, launched a plan to chart their own path away from the shadow of the Head of State, with whom they have been working together since the March 2018 truce.
Next year’s polls, said nominated MP Maina Kamanda, an ardent defender of President Kenyatta, will be a two-horse race between Mr Odinga and Mr Ruto. Though still keen to enjoy the fruits of incumbency, each is working hard to avoid being seen as a government project.
The establishment candidate tag hurt President Kenyatta in 2002 when an attempt by then President Daniel Moi to install him as successor flopped, handing Mwai Kibaki a decisive victory.
In 2013, President Kenyatta, then a deputy prime minister, avoided associating himself with the ruling government, choosing to chart a path with a rebellious Ruto, with whom he rallied supporters against Mr Odinga, whom they accused of being a puppet of the West at a time the two were facing charges of crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court.
It is for these reasons, analysts say, that the DP and the former Prime Minister reject the project tag and have made public proclamations that they do not want to be endorsed by the Head of State, who is set to retire next year.
Citing the occasion when Mr Odinga declared “Kibaki Tosha”, Prof Iraki says the sponsor in that case had a positive public image and that worked in favour of Mr Kibaki. Prof Iraki says that in next year’s polls, if people feel that Mr Kenyatta has done little to meet their expectations, the person he campaigns for is likely to lose.
“The project might be seen as weak and an extension of the sponsor’s influence,” Prof Iraki opined.
The DP, who is associating with the ‘Hustler Narrative’, says he doesn’t need support from people he describes as tribal chiefs but that he is with God and hustlers.
“We want to tell them that Hustler Nation is a national one and cannot fit in a tribal outfit and also a particular corner of this country. We will be a national party, which will accommodate everyone,” he said recently in West Pokot.
Prof Ken Oluoch, head of the Political Science department at Moi University, says any contender who wants to succeed President Kenyatta must work hard not to be endorsed by him. He argues that in our democracy, it’s prudent for presidential aspirants to build their bases without support from those in power.
“The tag ‘project’ is not good for any of the potential presidential candidates. In an emerging democracy such as this, each presidential candidate would rather be seen as depending on his own popularity and manifesto as a means of attracting votes,” Prof Oluoch argues.
Despite the political truce between Mr Kenyatta and Mr Odinga, allies of the latter have always insisted that they are not party to Jubilee failures and they should not be judged by the current administration‘s performance.
“Yes, we’re working with Jubilee and in most cases, we have supported their Bills in Parliament, but that does not mean that we are in government,” said Suna East MP Junet Mohamed in an interview last Wednesday.
Mr Odinga, whose party has launched talks on a possible coalition with the ruling Jubilee with the intention of fielding a presidential candidate, last month said he will present his candidacy to Kenyans when time is ripe and will not wait for Mr Kenyatta’s endorsement.
“President Kenyatta hasn’t said he will endorse anyone. I also do not want to be endorsed by anybody. I competed with Uhuru, so how will he endorse me? I’ve been working with him and even had lengthy and candid conversations,” Mr Odinga said in an interview.
Political analyst and governance expert Javas Bigambo says those who have been labelled projects of a retiring head of State have never made it through, a gamble he says no serious candidate will try next year.
Soy MP Caleb Kositany, the DP’s de facto spokesperson, says the DP is banking on endorsement from Kenyans hence their grassroots drive.
“For us, there is nothing like a deep state whatsoever. Our opponents are just desperate. Instead of going to voters as early as now, they are busy waiting for endorsements,” he said.
