The impending Nairobi gubernatorial, Machakos senate, Matungu and Kabuchai constituency by-elections — just months to a planned referendum — present the ultimate test for top politicians to size each other up ahead of the 2022 elections.
President Kenyatta’s Jubilee, his estranged deputy William Ruto, Orange Democratic Movement leader Raila Odinga, Wiper boss Kalonzo Musyoka, Amani National Congress leader Musalia Mudavadi, his Ford-Kenya counterpart Moses Wetang’ula as well as Machakos Governor and Maendeleo Chap Chap leader Alfred Mutua are some of the big names viewing the upcoming polls as a measure of their influence in the different parts of the country.
Buoyed by his recent win in the Msambweni by-election, DP Ruto has set his eyes on the mini elections in February and March 2021 in races that will see the Mudavadi, Odinga, and Wetang’ula influence in Matungu and Kabuchai in Western put to test, with Mr Musyoka and Dr Mutua also out to defend their clout in Machakos.
“The Msambweni by-election has opened a new chapter in the politics of our country. It is no longer about the big name that we carry. Not the people in power that we are connected to. It is about our hard work, commitment and how we address the issues and aspirations of the ordinary people,” the DP said last week after meeting Mr Feisal Bader, the independent candidate he backed, who won the contest.
That the by-elections will come just months to the planned Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) referendum, which the secretariat hopes to happen in June 2021, makes the races even more important for politicians seeking to stamp their authority ahead of the 2022 General Election.
In Nairobi, the by-election to replace the impeached Mike Sonko will gauge whether the DP’s “Hustler Nation” politics will stand the test of time against what is bound to be a huge force by President Kenyatta and Mr Odinga.
While both ODM and Jubilee have invited their members to bid for the February 18, 2021 by-election, there are already high-level talks for a joint bid.
“The handshake is a formidable force in Nairobi. What is most likely to happen is we will have a governor nominee from Jubilee, and a deputy governor from ODM.
“Parties are now consulting and we expect a way forward very soon,” nominated MP Maina Kamanda told the Nation yesterday, confident of a win for the Uhuru-Raila team in Nairobi.
In Machakos, the DP is said to be weighing the option of fielding his new-found ally Johnson Muthama — a former Machakos Senator, who was part of the campaign team that brought home the Msambweni MP seat, and who has fallen out with Mr Musyoka over the 2017 nominations.
Dr Mutua will field former minister, Mutua Katuku, while Mr Musyoka’s Wiper candidate is expected to be backed by Mr Odinga, Mr Mudavadi, and Mr Wetang’ula.
“You even saw the old man chest-thumping and saying that they will win by 80 per cent in Msambweni. Did we not beat him there? The seat was ODM’s, but we beat him. I’m not saying much, but you know,” the DP said in Bumula, Bungoma, on Saturday, signalling a big fight for the vacant seats.
In Western, pointing to the interests that parties have placed on the mini polls, Mr Odinga’s ODM has dismissed a push by Mr Mudavadi’s ANC for the Orange party not to field a candidate in the upcoming by-elections, warning them to prepare for a “bruising battle” in the Matungu poll, which was held by ANC.
The ANC party has said that ODM and President Kenyatta’s Jubilee should not field a candidate in Matungu because it is an “ANC zone” and because of the ongoing BBI cooperation, a train Mr Mudavadi has joined promising to popularise the Uhuru-Raila deal.
At the same time, Mr Mudavadi has cited the announcement by Mr Wetang’ula that the party won’t field a candidate in the race to replace Justus Murunga — with the ANC returning the favour in the Kabuchai poll — as a sign of a growing Luhya unity that he said had been exploited for so long. “We want to ask Uhuru and Raila, that personally, I will be offended if you field a candidate in Matungu. Good friendship is that when you are helped, you extend a hand and help. Jubilee has over 100 MPs. ODM has about 70. ANC has 15. Why do you want to take our seat in Matungu?” asked Kakamega Senator Cleophas Malala in Nairobi last week.
But ODM would hear none of it, with Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna saying the Mudavadi party should prepare for battle.
“Kenya is a multiparty democracy. That means parties must compete democratically in elections. Even in Kibra and recently in Kisumu North, ANC fielded candidates despite what they term BBI cooperation. Let them prepare for a bruising battle in Matungu because ODM shall be fielding a candidate,” Mr Sifuna told the Nation in a text message.
In Kabuchai, Bungoma County, Senator Wetang’ula hopes to stamp his authority in his backyard and solidify the Ford-Kenya support in the region.
