Caught between Ruto and Raila, Gideon Moi plots new political path

“Our ultimate objective as a party is to field candidates for all elective positions, from MCAs to the presidency. We are scouting, attracting individuals from other political factions, and nurturing promising young candidates through an array of leadership training programs, academies, and grassroots orientations,” the party says in a strategy brief seen by the Sunday Nation.

But for Mr Moi, his is the case of a reluctant politician caught between President William Ruto, who comes from the same region as the Kanu leader, and a firebrand opposition boss whom he backed for the top job, and who seemingly still has influence in the political scene.

Kanu insists it still belongs to the One Kenya Alliance—the outfit that had Mr Moi, former vice presidents Kalonzo Musyoka, Musalia Mudavadi and Ford Kenya leader Moses Wetang’ula—and was looking at politics “with a measured approach, prioritising political dialogue as the means to effectively address the challenges we currently grapple with.”

Read: The rise and fall of Gideon Moi

“We have different approach to issues but the fact of the matter is that we are together in Azimio. As OKA we believe in dialogue, share same table but maybe different eating habits,” says Ibrahim Sheikh, the party’s national vice chairperson.

This, he argues, has allowed the party to build a new strategy to recalibrate its once vibrant branches in the regions.

Foreign parties

Kanu Secretary General George Wainaina explains the party has partnered with some foreign parties and funders to strengthen its financial base and recruit members across the 47 counties. The party, he discloses, has relocated its offices from Yaya Centre to Prudential Building within Nairobi’s Central Business District (CBD) to make it more accessible to members.

“We are now reaching out to the youth, women and people with disabilities apart from partnering with Kabarak University to mentor 500 young turks annually and 2,500 in the next five years. They will be our prospective candidates from ward to national assembly and other elective positions,” says Mr Wainaina.

But for Mr Moi, the elephant in the room—especially in his Rift Valley backyard—is the William Ruto question. For the Moi family and Dr Ruto, theirs is a relationship of an adopted son who has risen to dethrone the anointed heir. Having grown up on the shoulders of his political mentor, President Moi, Dr Ruto made his first and successful attempt at a parliamentary seat in 1997 when he was elected MP for Eldoret North, defeating Moi's preferred candidate, Reuben Chesire.

In 2002, when key and senior Kanu leaders left the party after Mzee Moi chose political novice Uhuru Kenyatta as his successor, Dr Ruto stayed with Moi, Kanu and Mr Kenyatta. The younger Moi was elected unopposed as Baringo Central MP to replace his retiring father - who had represented the constituency since independence. But if it can be said that the rains began to fall on Kanu and the Moi family in 2002—when the party lost the presidential election for the first time since 1963—then their problems came in torrents in the subsequent 2007 election.

Read: Fortunes mixed for political families

In that election, Dr Ruto had jumped to Mr Odinga's side, riding an Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) wave in the Rift Valley. The ODM wave was so powerful that Moi's sons, Gideon, Jonathan and Raymond, who were contesting the Baringo Central, Eldama Ravine and Rongai constituencies, respectively, on a Kanu ticket, lost. Kanu, and by extension Moi, lost to ODM all the MP seats in his Baringo backyard except Mogotio that Prof Hellen Sambili secured on a United Democratic Movement ticket. Kanu's firebrand secretary-general Nick Salat also lost his Bomet parliamentary seat. The party won a paltry 14 seats nationwide.

Dr Ruto did not stop there.

In the subsequent 2013 elections, he reunited with Mr Kenyatta to form the Jubilee Coalition, which catapulted them to power in that election and their re-election in 2017.

Senator Moi, the political giant's heir apparent, supported President Kenyatta in the 2017 election, but there was no love lost between him and Dr Ruto. In the 2022 election, Mr Moi kept his supporters waiting, dancing from a presidential run, to an attempt at the running mate post, before deciding to side with Mr Odinga for the top job. Mr Moi, with other party leaders, Mr Musyoka (Wiper), Mr Wetang’ula (Ford Kenya) and Mr Mudavadi (Amani National Congress) had teamed up to form the One Kenya Alliance (OKA).

Mr Mudavadi and Mr Wetang’ula—now Prime Cabinet Secretary and National Assembly Speaker, respectively—jumped ship and joined President Ruto, leaving Mr Moi and Mr Musyoka, who both later backed Mr Odinga, at the apparent nudging by Mr Kenyatta.

Read: Kanu on a wing and a prayer in the Rift Valley amid UDA onslaught

By the time Mr Moi was announcing that he was going to defend his Baringo Senate seat, his competitor and eventual winner, Mr William Cheptumo of UDA, had already made enough headway, and he ended up garnering almost double the votes.  In all, Kanu won six elective seats in the National Assembly in the 2022 election.

The six Kanu MPs are Mr Kamket, Ms Naisula Lesuuda (Samburu West), Mr Jackson Lekumontare (Samburu East), Mr Julius Sunkuli (Kilgoris), Mr Guyo Wario (North Horr), and Tana River Woman Representative Ms Amina Abdullahi.

Dwindling fortunes

But immediately after the polls, two of Mr Moi’s dyed-in-the-wool supporters opted to back President Ruto. The exit of Tiaty MP William Kamket and that of Mr Salat days after the polls meant Mr Moi lost some of his closest allies. For the two, their exit is the manifestation of the dwindling fortunes of Kanu and Mr Moi, but for the party, it is the sign of the rejuvenation that is going on in the independence party. The exit of Mr Kamket was significant as his was the only constituency in Mr Moi’s Baringo backyard where Mr Odinga beat President Ruto in the August 2022 poll. But Kanu is still bullish that the exits have not done much to injure its political future.

Kanu Executive Director Job Waka said the party will embark on aggressive membership recruitment drive from the polling station to the national level.

“We are targeting generation Z and women in order to have a strong youth and women congress to demystify narration that elderly wazees form majority of the members,” explains Mr Waka, adding the party was changing tact to attract the youth by sponsoring soccer tournaments and empowering them economically by initiating income generating activities.

“We are digitalising our membership recruitment drive and identifying gaps between the young and old generation to facilitate transparency in nomination process among other activities,” says Mr Waka.

He adds election of new office bearers will be concluded in time to have a flawless party register in 2026 to enable it field strong candidates for various elective positions. w“The party is undertaking a comprehensive brand audit, we have embarked on a mission to establish our political positioning vis-à-vis other competing parties...,” the party states in a strategy brief seen by the Sunday Nation.

Mr Moi now has two choices: stick his neck out and risk being neutered by President Ruto, or once again cast his lot with Mr Odinga. For now, the younger Moi seems to have beaten a third path for himself: Buy time, re-strategise and hope the cards fall just right when he strikes. But whether he succeeds or not will depend on how this calculated risk pans out, and whether time—and the people—are on his side when he makes his move.