The three top contenders in the Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election share a personal history and have a lot in common, from childhood to politics, a factor that is complicating their campaign strategies.
Mr Muchina Nyaga of President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) hails from Kaimbaga Ward, which he shares with Wilson Kigwa of the Jubilee Party.
Muchina and Kamau Ngotho of former deputy president Rigathi Gachagua’s Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) are not only former primary school classmates but also childhood friends.
UDA's Ol-Kalou Constituency by-election candidate Muchina Nyagah speaks at the party headquarters in Nairobi on May 14, 2026.
Photo credit: Bonface Bogita | Nation Media Group
While Mr Muchina entered politics in 2013 as a personal assistant to the late MP David Kiaraho, Mr Kigwa also contested the Ol Kalou parliamentary seat in the same election year but was defeated by Mr Kiaraho.
Meanwhile, Mr Ngotho ran for and successfully won the Karau MCA seat on a Democratic Party ticket.
After he lost the election, Mr Kigwa was appointed a chief officer in the first county government under Governor Daniel Waithaka.
Mr Ngotho began his education in Class One at St Joseph Primary School, where his father served as the headteacher. Later, in Class Six, he transferred to AC Primary School, where he became a classmate of Mr Muchina.
"Mr Ngotho was my classmate at St Joseph Primary School, where his father served as the headteacher. He transferred to AC Primary School the same year his father was reassigned. Following his university education, he did not pursue employment due to his affluent background. Instead, he was appointed to manage his father's various businesses, which included land, farming, real estate and a private academy," explains former Karau MCA Ken Mukira.
Sammy Kamau Ngotho, winner of the Ol Kalou parliamentary party primaries for the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) at the party headquarters in Nairobi on May 12, 2026.
Photo credit: Bonface Bogita | Nation Media Group
Mr Mukira also contested the Karau MCA seat in 2013 but lost to Mr Ngotho, who won on a Democratic Party ticket.
Upon his election, Mr Ngotho appointed Mr Mukira chairperson of the bursary committee. In the 2017 election, Mr Mukira capitalised on the political influence of the late Mr Kiaraho and won the Karau Ward seat, defeating Mr Ngotho.
From AC Primary School, Mr Ngotho joined Utumishi Boys High School before proceeding to the University of Nairobi, where he graduated with a bachelor's degree in agricultural economics.
Mr Kigwa attended the same university, where he studied electrical and electronic engineering before obtaining a Master of Business Administration (MBA), after completing his primary and secondary education at Kaimbaga Primary School and Nyandarua High School.
After AC Primary School, Mr Muchina joined Ol Kalou Secondary School, a few kilometres from his home, and later attended Mt Kenya University, where he studied procurement. He later obtained a diploma in business management from Nairobi Institute of Business Studies (NIBS).
Though Mr Ngotho hails from Karau Ward, Karau and Kaimbaga wards border each other, and one is almost an extension of the other.
Primary and secondary school learners from both wards attend schools in either ward. Residents shop and conduct business in Ol Kalou town, while young people share the same stadium for sports. The two wards are, in many ways, one large extended community and have exhibited similar voting patterns over the years.
This time, however, Karau Ward residents feel the parliamentary seat should remain in Karau, the late Mr Kiaraho's home ward.
These factors complicate the campaign strategies for the three candidates, who must safeguard support in their home wards while seeking votes from the rest of the constituency.
This explains why much of the campaigning has been concentrated in Rurii, Kanjuiri and Mirangine wards.
Traditionally, Mr Kiaraho relied heavily on the three wards to win elections, while his opponents dominated Karau and Kaimbaga wards.
The Kiaraho factor and his traditional strongholds are giving the DCP camp sleepless nights, especially considering that the late MP's family supports the UDA candidate, who also enjoys strong backing from the government.
While the party secretary-general claimed on a vernacular television station that UDA has about 14,696 votes, Kipipiri MP Wanjiku Muhia wrote on her Facebook account that DCP wants to ensure UDA is "25,000 votes lighter" on July 16, arguing that derogatory language used by UDA campaigners from outside Nyandarua is helping the party achieve that target.
Another Kiaraho factor troubling the DCP is the political network established by the late MP after he was elected in 2013.
"The late MP had a very strong political network. I would say he literally bought political influence. After his election in 2013, Mr Kiaraho directed us to recruit a team he could work with. The recruited officials served as his political advisers and were responsible for reporting to him every morning, and at any other time, on what was happening in the villages. They were each paid a facilitation fee of Sh2, 000 every month for life. In total, we recruited 400 families under the initiative. The team included opinion leaders, clergy, drivers, touts and members of the business community. Every part of the constituency and every sector was represented. That is why the late Mr Kiaraho always knew what was happening across the constituency. He had every detail at his fingertips," says Mr Mukira.
"Sh2, 000 every month is not a small amount for someone living in a rural area or informal settlement. It helps a family pay monthly bills such as water, electricity, milk and rent. Their loyalty to the MP was unwavering. Unknown to many, Mr Kiaraho was a billionaire, and this money came from his own pocket, not the Constituency Development Fund," Mr Mukira added.
He says Mr Muchina of UDA is the biggest casualty of Jubilee's entry into the race because he is competing with Mr Kigwa for votes in Kaimbaga Ward.
"The Jubilee Party may not harvest many votes in other wards, but it will spoil the party for UDA," says Mr Mukira.
On the national government's influence in the election, local politician Joel Mwathi says Mr Ngotho faces a disadvantage.
"The biggest challenge facing the DCP candidate is that he cannot confidently promise to deliver development within the remaining period. He will need time to understand government systems and build the necessary connections. Penetrating government to lobby for development while elected on a DCP ticket is nearly impossible. Besides, most priority projects are already underway, and the national budget has already been approved. The dilemma for Ol Kalou voters is whether to risk stalling ongoing projects by electing Mr Ngotho to satisfy the wider Mt Kenya political agenda or elect the UDA candidate for continuity. Mr Muchina has an upper hand because he understands government systems, having worked closely with the late Mr Kiaraho and interacted with Cabinet secretaries and other senior government officials during the campaign," says Mr Mwathi.
Mr Ngotho, however, has the advantage of having contested against Mr Kiaraho in the 2022 General Election.
The main battleground for the two leading rivals, UDA and DCP, is Kanjuiri Ward, with 15,596 registered voters, and Mirangine Ward, with 14,695 registered voters, a combined 30,291 voters based on the 2022 General Election register.
The two wards traditionally voted as a bloc, delivering victory for Mr Kiaraho.
The other wards are Kaimbaga, Karau and Rurii, with 13,540, 13,594 and 15,572 registered voters, respectively, a combined total of 42,706 voters.
In the 2022 election, the late Mr Kiaraho of Jubilee garnered 24,058 votes, followed by UDA's Kamau Ngotho with 19,380 votes.
The numbers also present another complication for UDA, as Paul Waiganjo of Kanjuiri Ward and Peter Mwangi of Rurii Ward, who lost in the DCP primaries, have since joined UDA and are actively campaigning for Mr Muchina.
In the DCP nominations, Samuel Kamau Ngotho won with 12,947 votes, followed by Paul Waiganjo with 4,978, while Peter Mwangi came third with 3,919 votes.
Others in the race are Abdulahi Abdifatah Hussein (Federal Party of Kenya), Kariuku Timothy Kamau (People's Renaissance Party), Edward Mathenge (Kenya Moja Movement), Rachael Wangui Njoroge (People's Democratic Party), Stephen Wanyoike (National Liberal Party), Wilson Kigwa (Jubilee Party) and Edwin Kariiri Muchiri (Party of National Unity).
Ol Kalou Returning Officer Anthony Njiraini said 73,480 voters will be eligible to cast their ballots in the July 16 by-election.
