It’s D-day for President-elect William Ruto and Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition Party leader Raila Odinga as the Supreme Court makes rules on a consolidated petition challenging the outcome of the August 9 presidential election today.
Mr Odinga, the runner-up in last month’s presidential election, alongside seven other petitioners, went to court seeking to have Dr Ruto’s win nullified, insisting that the exercise was marred with massive irregularities and that his victory does not meet the constitutional threshold of a free, fair, transparent and verifiable election.
On August 15, six days after the General Election, Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) chairman Wafula Chebukati, had declared Dr Ruto President-elect after he garnered 7,176,141 million votes (50.49 per cent) against Mr Odinga’s 6,942,930 million (48.85 per cent).
Prof George Wajackoyah of Roots Party managed 61,969 votes (0.44 per cent) while Agano Party’s David Mwaure Waihiga came fourth with 31,987 votes (0.23 per cent).
Today’s pronouncement by the seven-judge bench of the Supreme Court will decide the fates of Dr Ruto and his main challenger, Mr Odinga, as it will have a bearing on their political future.
Dr Ruto urged respect for independent institutions. He told political leaders to allow them to discharge their mandate “free of intimidation, coercion and blackmail”.
“To entrench our democracy, our priority as an administration is to have a well-functioning, efficient and independent judiciary that will safeguard the public interest and protect our Constitution,” Dr Ruto told a delegation of African Judges and Jurists when they paid him a courtesy call at his Karen residence last Thursday.
Mr Odinga, on the other hand, believes the August 9 presidential election was marred with massive irregularities, adding that what he was seeking is simply “the truth” and that he would go home if at all he lost the election fairly.
“We are asking the court to deliver justice and I’ve got the conviction that I was not beaten and therefore I will stand firm and will not be shaken until the voice of the people of Kenya as expressed on August 9 is respected,” the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader told a congregation at Kibra African Inland Church last Sunday.
For Dr Ruto, who already had one foot in State House, nullification of the results will be a big blow to him as it would complicate further chances of victory amid a continued onslaught by the state.
For Mr Odinga, nullification gives him the fresh impetus to rejuvenate his bid to become Kenya’s fifth President.
However, in the event that the Supreme court upholds Dr Ruto’s win, that could likely mark the end of his political career, in a somewhat anti-climax wrap-up.
Political analysts opine that whichever way the verdict goes, it will have far-reaching effects on the two presidential front runners.
Mr Dismas Mokua argues that should the Supreme Court uphold Dr Ruto’s victory, Mr Odinga could “say bye to competitive politics and nurture talent.”
“Probability of Raila running and winning in 2027 is fairly low. Beating an incumbent in Kenya is a tall order.
Azimio may disintegrate because there will be no glue holding the coalition together. The same may hold true for ODM.
“Raila’s powerful persona remains the glue in both Azimio and ODM,” Mr Mokua says.
He also believes that, in the event of a nullification of the presidential election, Dr Ruto could still have a head start.
“This is because a number of governors, members of the National Assembly and senators have aligned with him. His Karen residence has witnessed massive movement with powerful personalities aligning with Ruto. Raila may need to recalibrate his team and work on voter turn-out in his bases and effective agent management,” Mr Mokua says.
A victory for Dr Ruto not only ends Mr Odinga’s career but also spells doom for President Uhuru Kenyatta , who rallied his troops against his deputy’s candidature.
It will be a big win for the “Hustler Nation,” which Dr Ruto had styled his campaigns to show his commitment to uplift ordinary citizens, but a big loss to the “dynasty,” a moniker referring to politicians from well-off families including the Kenyattas, Mois and Odingas, which all coalesced around Raila, the scion of the country’s first Vice-President Jaramogi Oginga Odinga.
President Kenyatta is the son of the country’s Founding Father Mzee Jomo Kenyatta while Kanu Chairman Gideon Moi, who lost his Baringo Senate seat to Dr Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA), is the last born son to the second president Daniel Moi.
Dr Ruto shall have made history for outwitting an entire government machinery, which stood on his path to victory.
He shall have also made history for being the first presidential candidate in Kenya’s history to win on the first try, with Mr Odinga having made five unsuccessful attempts.
United States International University don Macharia Munene argues that should the apex court call for a runoff for whatever reason, “Ruto will mobilise supporters to turn up in bigger numbers to prove they were not wrong in voting for him.”
Mr Odinga on the other hand, he says “will have to decide whether to participate or not.”
“Although his key people are calling for voters to turn up in large numbers, he can still call for protests that would not help him much,” Prof Munene argues.
Mr Odinga made the first stab at the top seat in 1997 and, unlike in the past when he staged a fierce fight against government functionaries, this time round he won the state’s support and contested as its preferred candidate, but posted negative results according to Mr Chebukati.
Mr Odinga had similarly disputed the elections of 2007, 2013, 2017 and now in 2022 at the Supreme Court.
In 2013, then Chief Justice Willy Mutunga led the judges in dismissing Mr Odinga’s petition, a verdict which upheld President Uhuru Kenyatta’s victory.
In 2017, the Supreme Court bench led by Chief Justice David Maraga, nullified President Kenyatta’s election in a majority decision, citing massive irregularities and illegalities in the exercise.
Justice Maraga called for fresh elections within 60 days but Mr Odinga boycotted the rerun, claiming that he had no confidence in the IEBC.
Today’s verdict will be monumental in his career, as it could clear the way for his State House bid or probably consign him to political oblivion.
Political commentator Beauttah Omanga says today’s verdict will be a “massive test for Ruto’s and Raila’s fidelity to the supreme law.”
“It will put to challenge their commitment to adhere to all that is contained in our cherished Constitution. They all owe it to Kenyans to respect whichever way it goes and guide the country into a united nation they all have been preaching in their campaigns,” Mr Omanga says. For both of them, he says, the verdict “will usher in a new chapter.”
“In case the court agrees with Chebukati that Ruto won, then that might force Raila to go back to the drawing board and immediately start nurturing a candidate he will support after five years since he shall have exhausted his bullets.”
“He will most likely settle on a combination that will guarantee his wing the elusive victory. To Ruto, he would prove his critics wrong that, even with the state’s backing, early and effective grassroots mobilisation is key to victory in any elective seat.”
