ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna has quickly risen to national prominence, emerging as one of the most promising youthful politicians, but a political storm swirling around him presents hard choices ahead of the 2027 polls.
The Nairobi senator’s outspoken and combative demeanour seems to have endeared him to the country’s crucial youthful population, even as he projects himself as the face of the anti-broad-based government team within ODM.
His Linda Mwananchi movement is gaining ground across the country, handing him a platform to build his image and profile as a national leader and anti-establishment figure.
But beneath this rise in influence and the attendant opportunities lie political predicaments that analysts say have the potential to either build or break him, depending on which strategic option he takes in the run-up to the 2027 elections.
ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna addresses delegates during the People’s Delegate Convention organised by the Linda Mwananchi faction of the ODM at Ufungamano House in Nairobi on March 27, 2026.
Photo credit: Wilfred Nyangaresi | Nation Media Group
His hard-line position against the broad-based government of ODM and President William Ruto’s UDA has set him against the party structures. It has, however, made him a darling of forces opposed to President Ruto’s administration.
The 43-year-old lawyer has since found himself caught up in vicious political and legal battles that, if he wins, will propel him further, but if he loses, will see him stripped of his plum secretary-general position that propelled him to national limelight.
ODM leaders have vowed to kick him out of the position, with observers noting that it is highly implausible for him to win the legal battle against the party, whose initial attempt to kick him out was stopped by the Political Parties Dispute Tribunal. The tribunal has since instructed the party and Mr Sifuna to exhaust internal dispute resolution mechanisms.
Smelling a possible legal defeat in the fight for control of the party, his Linda Mwananchi comrades have repeatedly said in their rallies that “they might have the party, but we have the people”.
ODM Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna addresses supporters in Kitengela on Sunday, February 15, 2026.
Photo credit: Stanley Ngotho | Nation Media Group
Unlikely to engage any reverse gear on the sustained political attacks, Mr Sifuna faces a make-or-break political decision in regards to his options ahead of the next elections. His political options are many; however, none seem straightforward.
It is considered a viable option for Mr Sifuna but full of risks of being isolated within the party and possibly denied a nomination ticket for the 2027 elections. The party has already started propping up other aspirants for the Nairobi senate seat, including Lang’ata MP Phelix Odiwuor, popularly known as Jalang’o.
The legal battle is also likely to fuel internal hostility against his alleged defiance and indiscipline. Following his installation as the substantive party leader, Dr Oburu Oginga signalled ruthlessness against those challenging his authority from within.
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ODM has since given Mr Sifuna until April 8 to respond in writing to allegations made against him and is expected to appear before a disciplinary panel on April 10 at 10am. Under the party’s constitution, the disciplinary committee has powers to hear and recommend sanctions ranging from reprimand to expulsion, subject to ratification by higher party organs.
In readiness for the war ahead, which could be long and winding, Mr Sifuna has assembled a formidable legal team that includes senior counsels John Ohaga, Jane Onyango and Zehrabanu Janmohamed.
Democratic Party leader Justin Muturi and Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo are some of the politicians cheering Mr Sifuna to fight to the bitter end. Mr Muturi and Mr Maanzo – both lawyers – say the courts are likely to protect Mr Sifuna from the political onslaught. They add that he should only jump ship when it is apparent that his stay is not tenable.
“He has made no mistake that warrants his removal. He has been consistent in his sentiments against this regime even when Baba (Raila Odinga) was alive. I think he should continue fighting from within so that ODM can field a presidential candidate or negotiate for a better deal with other political players,” explained Mr Maanzo.
But ousted ODM co-deputy party leader Godfrey Osotsi , an ally of Mr Sifuna, considers legal battles unnecessary, with little chances of success. It is on this basis, he argued, that he did not challenge his removal during the Special Delegates Convention (SDC). He added that the party will likely have its way in the matter, citing support from the government.
Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna speaks at Sarova Stanley on March 11, 2026 during the Linda Mwananchi forum reviewing the broad-based government’s 10-point agenda report.
Photo credit: Wilfred Nyangaresi | Nation Media Group
“It is no longer attractive to fight for the soul of ODM because the key leaders in the party are working for President Ruto to kill the party. Ruto is the de facto leader of ODM, and he will have his way on any matter. They have betrayed Raila in death in search of money and fake power play,” Mr Osotsi said.
“It is unfortunate that Raila’s long years fighting for justice, freedom and a better Kenya, virtues that he embodied in his party, have been eroded by close people he trusted due to lust for money. This is regrettable, and it will end in tears. It is tactless for them to be used by Ruto to burn bridges with key regions,” he said.
Political analyst Rachael Omollo argued that “arbitration processes are known to be lengthy and would buy him time to capitalise on his position as the SG of the largest political party”.
“It allows him to shape the narrative – the intention is to keep the issue of suspension alive and frame himself as a victim of ODM internal struggles,” she added.
Remaining in the party, some analysts argue, offers Mr Sifuna an opportunity to inherit Raila’s political base. ODM remains one of the country’s main political parties with strong grassroots networks in Nyanza, Western, Coast, Turkana, and the Maa community.
Former Nyeri Town MP Ngunjiri Wambugu also holds this view. According to him, Mr Sifuna may not get everything he wants, but he stands to benefit significantly by staying in ODM.
“It depends on why he is fighting. Is he fighting to make the party better so that it is better equipped to negotiate in the political space for its members and the principles it stands for? Or is he fighting to build his personal profile so that he can negotiate for himself?
“My advice would be for him to stay there. Fight for his space from within. He will not get everything he wants, but he will get something he needs to move forward. It will also earn him legitimacy. Let him build his stake in ODM. Plus, he needs an institution. No one goes very far as an individual in Kenyan politics. Today, he’s only relevant because he’s in ODM. If he leaves, his relevance will diminish by the day thereafter,” said Mr Wambugu.
Mr Sifuna’s Linda Mwananchi faction continues to gain traction with its anti-establishment narrative. Within ODM, those opposed to the broad-based government and Dr Oginga’s Linda Ground camp have identified with the movement.
Its growing political wave has since led to speculations that Mr Sifuna and his ODM breakaway team of Mr Osotsi, Siaya Governor James Orengo, MPs Babu Owino (Embakasi East), Anthony Kibagendi (Kitutu Chache South), Caroli Omondi (Suba South) and Wilberforce Ounda (Funyula) may consider crafting a new political party. A recent storm over an attempt to reserve the name gave credence to the speculations.
Siaya Governor James Orengo (right) and ODM Edwin Sifuna address residents of Ugunja town during a public rally by Linda Mwananchi faction on February 8, 2026.
Photo credit: Alex Odhiambo | Nation Media Group
The faction is already positioning itself as an alternative voice, challenging the dominant political formations and emerging as a potential third force in the 2027 contest. In its rallies, the camp has continued to draw significant crowds while sustaining criticism of both the broad-based government and the Linda Ground ODM faction.
One of the MPs in the faction told the Nation that their current focus is on sustaining anti-Ruto sentiment across the country.
“Our interest at the moment is not about forming a political party, but to build on the growing negative sentiment against this administration. Once we get there, we will cross that bridge,” said the MP.
Kakamega Deputy Governor Ayub Savula claimed that Mr Sifuna stands no chance outside ODM. He argued that some of the youth behind Linda Mwananchi may not even vote for him, as they would retreat to their ethnic voting blocs.
“Some of the Gen Z he is riding on are not registered voters. Some are not in Nairobi to help with his course of retaining his senate seat. It is the popularity of ODM that gave him the current impetus. He needs to find out what happened to those who left big parties for start-ups,” said Mr Savula. “My advice to him is to find how to work with the ODM of Dr Oburu because that is the party that will build him for his future ambitions.”
Prof David Monda, a US-based university lecturer and political analyst, said Mr Sifuna currently enjoys the backing of Gen Z and stands a chance of galvanising their support should he declare interest in the top seat. However, he said, this route may benefit President Ruto’s re-election as he would eat into the United Opposition's support bases.
“Sifuna can go it alone for the presidency in his own party. He could possibly galvanise the Gen Z vote but marginalise the United Opposition faction while appearing as a tool for UDA to divide the opposition,” he observed. “This is a very risky option, but carries with it huge rewards, especially if the Gen Z Niko Kadi wave peaks in 2027 and Sifuna is seen as the youth candidate challenging legacy politicians like Ruto, Oburu and Kalonzo [Musyoka].”
Prof Monda said that leading a breakaway team would position Mr Sifuna as a generational and reformist leader, with a national appeal to youth and urban voters. Such a formation, he said, could also be attractive as it would be seen as anti-establishment and status quo.
Political commentator Javas Bigambo said that Mr Sifuna needs to determine whether he has a solid constituency behind him or not, observing that all those cheering him may not be his genuine friends.
“If he thinks he is a tiger, yet he is not in a forest of tigers but in a swimming pool, then it would be a challenge for him. There are people who may be cheering him but are not voters in Nairobi and will forget him the way Ababu Namwamba was forgotten,” said Mr Bigambo.
In one of his media interviews, Mr Sifuna indicated the Linda Mwananchi faction’s willingness to work with the United Opposition led by Democracy for the Citizens Party leader Rigathi Gachagua and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka to deny President Ruto a second term.
“I want to assure everyone who believes that our country cannot withstand another five-year term of William Ruto, we will not be the problem because I cannot countenance waking up and hearing William Ruto has won the election by one hundred thousand or two hundred thousand votes like he did last time. All of us must be able to agree and say this is a formula that will take this gentleman home,” he told NTV’s Fixing the Nation show in February.
Prof Macharia Munene, a university lecturer and political analyst, said that joining the United Opposition is the only way those opposed to President Ruto’s administration can deny him a second term in office. He explained that Mr Sifuna going it alone could end up splitting opposition votes, consequently denying any of the candidates an outright win in the first round of the contest.
“He appears to be popular with the youth. If he chooses to run for the presidency, the end result would be no direct winner. But if the intention is to remove Ruto, he should join forces with the United Opposition. This will give him an opportunity to build his brand for the future. He still has time to build his stature. He already has the image to mobilise the people in his quest to be the president in the subsequent election.”
With the huge backing by Gen Z, Prof Monda argued that Mr Sifuna can go into a coalition with the United Opposition as the head of a presidential ticket. This he, however, said, is likely to be resisted by Mr Musyoka and former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i. Alternatively, he said, Mr Sifuna can join the camp as a running mate.
“Going into a coalition with United Opposition as a running mate or in a high-profile position will potentially keep Kalonzo and the Gachagua/Kamba faction if Kalonzo is the head of the ticket,” said Prof Monda.
