Gachagua: Opposition unifier or bull in China shop?

Once viewed as the glue that held the coalition together, the former deputy president now appears to be sowing discord rather than unity, leaving many within the outfit jittery. From dismissing Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party as the “weakest link” in the opposition to declaring himself the only leader capable of defeating President William Ruto, Mr Gachagua’s blunt style is increasingly destabilising the alliance.

Fashioning himself as the de facto leader of the United opposition, the former Mathira MP has cast himself as its alpha and omega. He has repeatedly insisted that he alone has the numbers, mobilisation capacity and resources to challenge President Ruto in 2027.

While Mr Gachagua maintains that the opposition remains united and focused on denying Dr Ruto a second term, analysts warn that his hardline approach risks fracturing the coalition.

Political commentator Javas Bigambo says Mr Gachagua’s rhetoric reflects a politics of division. He argues that the former Mathira MP tolerates little dissent, often scolding and branding critics.

“It is not that his utterances will jeopardise opposition unity — Rigathi Gachagua himself is a symbol and agent of jeopardy. He jeopardised his own tenure in government as deputy president and damaged his standing among Kenyans through his talk of shares and shareholders,” Mr Bigambo says. “He behaves as though he owns and controls the opposition. That larger-than-life ego is already testing the coalition’s cohesion,” he adds.

Notably, former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i and Peoples’ Liberal Party (PLP) leader Martha Karua have been conspicuously absent from recent opposition events attended by other principals. 

The alliance also includes Wiper Patriotic Front leader Kalonzo Musyoka, Democratic Action Party–Kenya leader Eugene Wamalwa, former Attorney-General Justin Muturi and Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya.

Early this month, Mr Gachagua again lashed out at Jubilee, saying it is heavily infiltrated by President Ruto’s allies, “apologists, traitors and sell-outs”. He urged Dr Matiang’i to form a new party anchored in Nyanza to secure loyalty and discipline.

Mr Gachagua argued that Dr Matiang’i faces resistance in Kisii, where some supporters are reluctant to back a candidate seen as relying on a Mt Kenya–based party. “It is very difficult for anyone aspiring to the presidency to lack a solid home base and still expect to negotiate effectively. You must lock your base first, then go to the table with a clear deliverable,” he said.

Heavy lifting 

In another salvo, Mr Gachagua claimed he is doing the heavy lifting in the opposition, saying he can deliver more than six million votes from his region while support from other areas would merely “top up” the tally.

“I don’t think Kalonzo will be foolish to leave because of a million votes. He will be like Ruto. He left the mountain and went to Luo-Nyanza, abandoning five million votes in search of 1.5 million. I don’t think Kalonzo is that daft,” Mr Gachagua said during a meeting in Kathiani, Machakos County.

“How will Kalonzo argue his case when he comes with 1.5 million votes? Do you think I will listen to him? If you in Ukambani want him to be the United opposition’s flagbearer, he must come to the table after delivering four million votes.”

However, Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka, an ally of Dr Fred Matiang’i, has warned that Mr Rigathi Gachagua’s reckless rhetoric and calculated provocation could ultimately weaken the opposition and strengthen the very government it seeks to challenge.

He said Kenya’s opposition cannot be built on suspicion, exclusion, or the casual branding of reform-minded leaders as “projects” or “moles.”

“Regrettably, Hon. Rigathi Gachagua appears to have made Dr Matiang’i a convenient political target, deploying labels, insinuations and conspiracy theories that neither enrich democratic debate nor advance the cause of a credible, united opposition,” Mr Onyonka said.

“What is indefensible is the attempt to recast him as an enemy of the opposition or portray him as a shadowy agent of state manipulation. Such claims are unsupported by facts, corrosive to trust, and politically reckless,” he added.

The lawmaker described Mr Gachagua’s sustained attacks on the former Interior minister as “personal vendettas pursued through megaphone politics,” saying they erode collective unity within the United opposition.

“When a leader from a particular community is persistently singled out and vilified, the message received by that community is not abstract — it is personal. History shows that whenever the opposition turns inward, it hands an advantage to the incumbent,” he said.

The combative style of the former Deputy President appears to be winning him more enemies than allies, even within his Democratic Congress Party (DCP), as key figures continue to defect — the latest being Juja MP George Koimburi.
Mr Koimburi now joins a growing list of former allies who have fallen out with Mr Gachagua, including Githunguri MP Gathoni Wamuchomba, Mary wa Maua (Maragua), Peter Kihungi (Kangema), and Muchangi Karemba (Runyenjes), among others.

Ms Wamuchomba, once an ardent supporter of the ex-DP, has become one of his fiercest critics. She has accused him of intolerance to dissent, political coercion, and attempts to dictate Mt Kenya’s political direction.
Earlier this month, she accused the former Mathira MP of “consistently intimidating and coercing her” to abandon the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) for DCP.

“He has been attacking and abusing every leader who does not support his tribal narratives and venom. He has created political enemies in every county of the mountain, including Machakos,” she said.

For his part, Mr Koimburi claimed Mr Gachagua has turned DCP into a “cash cow, rent-seeking from political aspirants” with promises of tickets in 2027. He accused the former DP of betrayal despite standing by him during his impeachment “at great personal risk.”

Responding to the defections, Mr Gachagua last week branded departing allies as “self-seekers out to profit from President Ruto’s UDA 2027 strategy.”

“It is true I have been losing some of my foot soldiers. But this is nothing to worry about … the biggest problem in my camp is infiltration by spies, poaching by State machinery, and the party becoming too big for joyriders who must exit noisily to justify their decamping,” he said.

Lawyer and political commentator Steve Ogolla argues that the United opposition’s unity will be tested, as its presidential candidate must be capable of securing the Mt Kenya vote to stand a realistic chance against President Ruto in 2027.

While experience suggests the senior-most regional leader — in this case Mr Kalonzo Musyoka — would be the natural choice, Mr Ogolla says other political considerations could override this.

“Mr Kalonzo’s fate is sealed by the low numbers he commands. That is the reality. If the United opposition wants a real shot at the presidency, their candidate must come from Mt Kenya, with Kalonzo as running mate,” he said. 
“Politics everywhere thrives on euphoria. You must be able to create and sustain it — and sadly, Kalonzo has not demonstrated that capacity,” Mr Ogolla added.

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