ODM leader Raila Odinga's Capitol Hill offices are once again receiving large numbers of visitors, the likes of which were only seen when he was Prime Minister some 13 years ago.
The numbers soared after he signed the memorandum of understanding with President William Ruto on Friday. If it were a stock market, Mr Odinga's value to those seeking favours and appointments in government would have been said to have increased almost tenfold after the KICC pact.
When we visited on Wednesday, the waiting room was full, with some waiting outside. It didn't matter that he was out of the office. Waiting was not too high a price to pay for the promise of the trappings of power.
Raila: I didn’t go to Ruto, he came looking for me
Mr Odinga was a few metres away at the Jaramogi Oginga Odinga Foundation (JOOF), also in Upper Hill, Nairobi, meeting with a delegation from Kisii and Nyamira counties to do damage control after a section of the crowd heckled him at Gusii Stadium on Sunday, afternoon.
According to those who attended the meeting, Mr Odinga asked the Abagusii not to oppose his current pact with President Ruto. He promised them that the region would get a cabinet slot in the next reshuffle, possibly from Nyamira. ODM Treasurer Timothy Bosire's name features prominently in the list of possible picks.
"I met a group of MCAs and Kisii community leaders from Nyamira and Nairobi counties. We discussed areas of mutual cooperation and development. The team was led by George Morara, Duke Masira and Moses Ogeto," Mr Odinga said on Wednesday.
Back to Capitol Hill. The calibre of the visitors is not the hoi polloi but splendidly bedecked ladies and gentlemen on a mission to lobby for the plum jobs Mr Odinga is expected to fill as part of the political pact.
Those shortlisted for PS jobs and CS hopefuls queue up for an audience with the man who is about to control about half the government.
While the list of who's who is already known within the inner sanctums of power, with the beneficiaries already informed, they don't want to stray too far, lest they be forgotten in the ever-changing dynamics of politics, hence the need to keep in constant touch.
A number of people on the PS list had been told to apply, so they know they will soon be in the corridors of power.
Government officials already treat Mr Odinga as a senior member of the executive, even though he has no formal role.
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On a lift to Mr Odinga's office, the glass walls let you see how far you are being lifted. It is a metaphor for the ODM leader himself. Access to him at Capitol Hill sends a clear message that you are now as close to power as you can get - and the photographic evidence is there for all to see.
It is not just his office in Capitol Hill Square that is busy, his home in Karen is even busier as people adjust to the new order. His aides told us that the development is only similar to what happened when Mr Odinga was Prime Minister or during his rapprochement with former President Uhuru Kenyatta.
For the past month, the office of National Assembly Minority Leader Junet Mohamed has also been buzzing with activity as MPs jostle for plum chairmanships of parliamentary committees such as the budget, health and others donated by the majority side, Kenya Kwanza.
In his statement late last year, Mr Odinga's spokesman Denis Onyango attributed the development to a cocktail of issues that have converged and brought people to Mr Odinga. He said these issues have happened almost at the same time, given the many hats he is currently wearing.
"There are ODM issues, people lobbying for positions and there are those who are curious to understand the latest political developments directly from him," he said.
At the heart of this notion is the fact that Mr Odinga, or at least his allies, were brought on board to stabilise a shaky government whose very existence was threatened by the youth-led protests.
In much the same way that the famous 2018 handshake between then President Uhuru Kenyatta and Mr Odinga created new power brokers while sidelining the former kitchen cabinet, Friday's cooperation deal also threatens to leave a trail of political casualties.
In the 2018 deal, the then DP, Dr Ruto and his closest allies were the biggest casualties while Mr Odinga's allies became some of the beneficiaries after the trappings of power were extended to them.Prof Kithure Kindiki and Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi could prove to be the biggest casualties, especially in the run-up to the 2027 elections.
President Willam Ruto and ODM party leader Raila Odinga during the MoU signing event at KICC on March 7, 2025.
Photo credit: Francis Nderitu | Nation Media Group
With Mt Kenya - a key plank in Dr Ruto's 2022 bid - seemingly drifting away following the impeachment of Mr Rigathi Gachagua as Deputy President, Mr Odinga is likely to play a key role in securing a second term for Dr Ruto.
And with the presidency likely to be off the table for his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), Mr Odinga could bargain for the remaining top positions, including deputy president and cabinet secretary.
Mr Odinga on Friday hinted at the possibility of his ODM joining forces with President Ruto's United Democratic Alliance (UDA).
"We make it clear that the memorandum we signed today does not define the formation of a political coalition between ODM and UDA. However, its successful implementation could form the basis of steps towards the establishment of a stable country in the future," Mr Odinga said at the signing of the agreement on Friday.
Embakasi North MP James Gakuya noted that Mr Mudavadi's decision to dissolve his party and join UDA could work against him in the grand scheme of things.
He said if the UDA were to make a political deal with the ODM, Mr Odinga was likely to play a major role in a scenario that could see the former Amani National Congress (ANC) leader relegated in the pecking order.
Prof Kindiki is also likely to suffer a similar fate if he fails to counter Mr Gachagua's influence. In a country where voting patterns determine how positions are shared, an anti-Ruto vote could hurt Prof Kindiki.
Kakamega deputy governor Ayub Savula said Dr Ruto is interested in a person who can give him numbers, both in parliament and in terms of support base.
President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga at State House in Mombasa on February 24, 2025.
Photo credit: PCS
"Politics is a game of numbers. Raila would automatically play a bigger role compared to any other politician because of the numbers he controls. Raila controls the west. In Kakamega with 12 MPs, ODM has 9. It is the same in Busia where he controls all the constituencies except Teso South," said Mr Savula.
Political analyst Peter Kagwanja notes that Mr Odinga is likely to push for more influence in Dr Ruto's administration by demanding more cabinet positions.
He says some of the reshuffles would result in major casualties. He says Deputy President Kithure Kindiki and Mr Mudavadi could be the biggest casualties in such an arrangement.
"He will push for the co-presidency. Raila is going to push for a government that is truly a Raila-Ruto government. That means an expansion of the cabinet, possibly him being elevated to deputy president or prime minister. Raila will not be a rebel, he will not rebel against William Ruto," says Prof Kagwanja.
