The current escalating power struggle in the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) mirrors the chaos that ensued in Ford Kenya in 1994.
In both cases, the fierce wrangles were triggered by the leadership vacuum occasioned by the deaths of the outfits’ founding leaders – Raila Odinga and his father Jaramogi Oginga Odinga.
In Jaramogi’s death, the fight was in two strands; some sought to succeed him as the chairman of Ford Kenya. In this front, his son Raila faced off with then Ford-K deputy chairman Kijana Wamalwa.
In his autobiography, The Flame of Freedom Raila says that Wamalwa initially supported him to be his deputy, but changed his mind to back James Orengo (current Siaya Governor).
Raila felt betrayed and the fight between him and Wamalwa for control of the party dragged on for about two years, until he decamped to the National Development Party in 1996.
Separately, there was the battle to succeed Jaramogi as the Luo Kingpin. Those who were close to Jaramogi at that time hinted that he had preferred Orengo.
This triggered a bitter rivalry between Raila and Orengo that went on until after the 2002 elections, when Orengo unsuccessfully contested the presidency.
Through his ODM party that was formed in 2005 following a referendum victory, Raila went on to cement his influence far and beyond Luo Nyanza. He gained substantive backing in Western, Coast, Gusii among other parts of the country that backed him in his presidential runs in 2007, 2013, 2017 and 2022.
Masking factional rivalries
Raila’s long shadow held ODM together for nearly two decades, masking factional rivalries beneath the unifying banner of his name. With that unifying figure gone, the party faces its greatest existential test since its founding.
In his absence, two factions have emerged. The internal fights are so fierce that they threaten to consume the party before 2027. At the heart of the fight, just like in 1994, are the struggle to inherit Raila’s Luo Nyanza support base as well as ODM party leadership.
In the grand fight, Dr Oginga on one side and his niece, Winnie Odinga, on the other. Speaking during a fiery public rally in Kibra, Nairobi, Ms Odinga accused a faction within the party of hijacking power, making unilateral decisions without consultation and threatening critics with expulsion.
“We were passengers and Baba was the driver. Then one day Baba was no more. Suddenly, those who were near him rushed to the steering wheel, all pulling it in different directions, while pushing us around like luggage,” said Ms Odinga.
According to Ms Odinga, the party risks losing public support due to selfish individuals who claim leadership while betraying its founding values.
“We are saying today: relax. Baba died just the other day. What is the hurry? Let us talk first and move forward together. Baba was never a sycophant. There was not a single day when Baba told us he had left us. Those claiming that Baba privately told them this or that are being disrespectful. Everything Baba said was said openly in front of his people,” she said.
“They talk too much, and when we question them, they tell us to leave the party. If we all leave, who will remain? This party belongs to the people. I bring greetings from Babu Owino and Edwin Sifuna . We are united,” she said.
Speaking to party supporters at the same grounds on Wednesday, ODM party leader Dr Oburu Oginga asked a section of leaders and members who are unhappy with the way the outfit is being managed to leave without causing confusion and sending mixed signals to members.
“We must remain united as a party, and we do not intend to chase anyone away. Those who wish to leave should do so on their own. As ODM, our focus is on strengthening the party,” Dr Oginga said.
Another fight to succeed Raila as Luo kingpin is also unfolding, with top leaders angling to speak for the community.
At the centre of the succession battle are Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi, Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi, Interior Principal Secretary Raymond Omollo and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino.
Ms Wanga burst onto the national scene in 2013 as the Homa Bay Woman Representative. Her biggest political leap came in 2022 when she vied for the Homa Bay gubernatorial seat. Her name has been mentioned as a possible running mate for Dr Ruto in the 2027 presidential race.
Mr Omollo is also emerging as an influential figure owing to his position in President Ruto’s administration.
Mr Wandayi and Mr Mbadi have also been going around the region to seek for support in succeeding Mr Odinga, who for more than three decades was the de facto leader of the Luo community. The two have been holding rallies and engaging various interest groups in the region.
Since Mr Odinga’s death, Mr Wandayi has been holding a series of activities in what many view as a strategy to position himself as the next kingpin of the Luo community. From meetings in Nairobi, Kisumu, and Siaya, Mr Wandayi has been busy trying to position himself as a possible spokesperson for the community.
Mr Owino argues that ODM needs a “younger general” to succeed Raila and lead the party forward, saying Dr Oginga is too old for the job.
“It is time for the youthful members to take over and shepherd the party within its ideals as the people’s defender,” he said.
Using Biblical analogies, Mr Owino says ODM does not need a “Joshua” who is an age mate or older than Moses, but a younger one who will uphold the late Odinga’s vision.
“What kind of a general do we need after Baba? Do we need the strongest, weakest or a parachuted general? The answer is simple. Our Moses is gone, and we need a Joshua who is younger than Moses, with vim, vigour, courage and temerity to lead the people Baba left to Canaan.”
“The current ODM does not reflect what Baba stood for. Baba never sought coalitions; they came to him. This approach of seeking them is a different ODM,” he notes.
Political commentator Barrack Muluka said ODM is in flux because Dr Oburu lacks the charisma, moral authority, and leadership acumen of his late brother, Raila Odinga.
“Oburu cannot rally the ODM constituency like Raila did. There isn’t a single individual in the party who can marshal support nationally as Raila did.”
