The outcome of the November 27 by-elections is promising to act as a barometer for President William Ruto in choosing new strategic partners, including pre-election power-sharing deals ahead of the 2027 General Election.
A poor performance in some of the strategic seats like Mbeere North, Malava and Kasipul constituencies could force President Ruto to recalibrate his alliances and how to negotiate with partners and opponents ahead of his re-election bid.
Deputy President Kithure Kindiki , Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and ODM National Chairperson and Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga are some of the key political players who could either become beneficiaries or casualties of the hotly contested mini-polls.
ODM chairperson, Gladys Wanga.
Photo credit: Alex Odhiambo | Nation Media Group
President Ruto has kept off the campaigns, a move pundits believe could be deliberate in gauging the individual political clout of his allies in the said areas.
Analysts note that the outcome is likely to have a bearing on President Ruto’s pick for running mate. Prof Kindiki, who hopes to retain the position going to the next election, is facing a major hurdle in delivering Mbeere North as proof of his influence in the larger Mt Kenya region.
For Deputy President Kindiki, whose rural home is 21 kilometres away in Tharaka-Nithi, a loss would mean a blow to his credibility as the mountain’s new custodian. It would also signal a drifting support base for the region that swept Dr Ruto to power in 2022, effectively exposing Prof Kindiki’s soft underbelly. This could force the President to reconsider the DP’s place in his inner circle.
Prof Kindiki is backing the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) candidate Leonard Muthende, while former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua , the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) leader, is supporting Newton Kariuki, popularly known as Karish of Democratic Party (DP).
But the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has to deliver Kasipul and other seats in its traditional bases as proof of influence post its leader, Raila Odinga, who died on October 15.
Also facing a major test is Mr Mudavadi, who seeks to recapture the seat that was held by his now-folded Amani National Congress (ANC). The late Malulu Injendi was among seven MPs elected on ANC in the 2022 general election.
ANC has since folded to join Dr Ruto’s UDA. Mr Malulu garnered 22,891 votes on ANC, beating his closest competitor, Seth Panyako (then UDA) who got 20,133. In the November 27 mini-poll, Mr Panyako is running on DAP-K against UDA’s David Ndakwa.
Manyasi bows out of Malava parliamentary by-election, endorses UDA’s Ndakwa
The outcome of the mini-poll is crucial for Mr Mudavadi as it would be a pointer to his influence in the Western region that is facing major political realignments, including the entry of new political players and parties.
In the 2022 contest, Mr Mudavadi failed to deliver the vote of his Vihiga home county to President Ruto after ODM leader Raila Odinga garnered 114,717 votes, almost twice of what the president managed (67,631).
Opiyo Wandayi.
Photo credit: File | Nation Media Group
Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi is also facing a litmus test. He has to show his political mettle by delivering the Ugunja parliamentary seat that fell vacant after his appointment to the Cabinet. Mr Wandayi is among the top ODM politicians seeking to win President Ruto’s trust. He is also among the top contenders in Mr Odinga’s succession battle.
Mr Gachagua, who has mounted a strong opposition against UDA in Mt Kenya, on Saturday hinted at how the outcome of the mini-polls is likely to bruise some of Dr Ruto’s allies from the region, with Prof Kindiki as a possible major casualty.
“President Ruto intends to use the by-election results as an excuse to dissolve the Cabinet and reconstitute it. It is possible we will have a new Deputy President and new faces in Cabinet in January 2026,” claimed Mr Gachagua.
“If I were to advise Kindiki, his big problem is not Mt Kenya. It is not even me. His biggest threat is those ODM people who want Ruto in ODM, ready to surrender his presidency or deputy presidency to his host. You know very well what seat Ruto will find easier to surrender.”
Mr Gachagua claimed that Dr Ruto’s allies from Mt Kenya have been lying’ to him that the region would give him three million votes. “Those targeting benefits in a possible government power realignment are only telling him what he wants to hear. But the problem is that they were all trapped by Ruto in this by-election.”
Last Monday, Prof Kindiki told residents at Ishiara market that he—not Mr Gachagua—is the legitimate Mt Kenya kingpin, accusing his predecessor of “self-appointing” himself.
“Who elected him as spokesman of the region? I am the king of the mountain with close to 20 years of experience as an elected leader. I represented former President Uhuru Kenyatta and President William Ruto at the ICC,” he said.
He added: “This man has been bragging that he’s the king, yet we are the ones fighting for development. He held a big office but did nothing to improve the lives of people in this region. I will be here until the by-election is concluded, and I will take our candidate to be sworn in as the new MP.”
Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale says if the United Opposition wins the Malava and Mbeere North seats, then the outcome will allow the President to exercise real politics.
Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi addressing the press in Kakamega on November 23, 2025 after Malava parliamentary aspirant Joab Manyasi stepped down in favour of UDA's David Ndakwa.
Photo credit: Isaac Wale | Nation Media Group
“This will mean dispensing with Mudavadi and Wetang’ula as they will be of no value. The President will also have to rethink how to engage with Mt Kenya because Kindiki cannot deliver anything,” said the Senate Majority Whip.
Political commentator Macharia Munene, a professor of history and international relations at the United States International University, says the President has to make a decision ahead of the 2027 elections, no matter the outcome of the by-elections.
He argues that the Mbeere North seat is gone, and Prof Kindiki knows the same and if there is a decision to be made, the outcome of the by-election will just be a good excuse for the President.
For Malava, if the UDA candidate loses, then it makes Ruto’s work easier, but if he wins, then Ruto might need to rethink.
“Mudavadi is actually fighting for his position more than Kindiki because there was talk of replacing him with Raila before the latter died. Kindiki has no political base and was given the position because Ruto decided to get rid of Gachagua,” avers Prof Munene.
“Kindiki’s political base is in Tharaka-Nithi, but it is weak. Whichever way it turns out, Kindiki will be collateral damage.”
Javas Bigambo, another political commentator, says the outcome of the by-elections will not necessarily inform how the President considers his possible running mate for 2027, but will help him to manage or recalibrate his 2027 campaigns.
He points out that a win for the government in Malava and Mbeere North will show that, beyond the noise and scarecrow politics of Mr Gachagua, President Ruto still has presence in Mt Kenya and Western. This is the same if he loses by a small margin.
“But if the loss is by a huge margin, it will mean a vote of no confidence in the President, meaning he will need a lot of resources to turn around the hearts and minds of the people. For Kindiki, Mbeere North will show how useful or not he will be to the President in 2027 in making inroads, sustaining his presence and fight in Mt Kenya,” says Mr Bigambo.
ODM deputy party leader Godfrey Osotsi says any talks of considering Governor Wanga as Dr Ruto’s possible running mate is neither here nor there because ODM is in a broad-based government until 2027 , when the party will take a stand on the way forward.
“We may field a presidential candidate. The discussions around fielding a candidate or going into a coalition are premature. The statements you hear are personal opinions and not the party’s position. The party’s position is that we are in the broad-based government until 2027,” said the Vihiga senator.
“So we have not gotten to a point where we can say we are supporting someone for the presidency or we have entered into a coalition because broad-based is not a coalition arrangement but one that was to give political stability,” he added.
In Homa Bay, Ms Wanga is facing a direct confrontation with his deputy, Mr Magwanga. Mr Magwanga became Ms Wanga’s running mate after an intervention by Mr Odinga that saw several ODM aspirants for the Homa Bay governor race drop in favour of Ms Wanga.
Boyd Were and Philip Aroko, candidates for the Kasipul Kabondo parliamentary by-election.
Photo credit: File | Nation Media Group
The position taken by Mr Magwanga is seen as a threat to Ms Wanga, given that Kasipul is his home constituency, which he served as the MP until 2017 when he unsuccessfully contested the governor's seat.
On Friday, while in Wire, West Kamagak, the DG argued that the nomination process that identified Boyd as the party’s flagbearer was not free and fair.
The process was called into question, with allegations of irregularities and manipulation, leading to discontent among some party members.
“There is no law that says that if a leader dies, it is his son who should replace him. I have been told to support Boyd, but I will not,” he said.
The deputy governor said he is concerned about cases of violence in Kasipul, including the destruction of property witnessed during the nominations.
“We all encourage investors to put money in our county. It is unfortunate that rowdy youths stormed a private hospital and destroyed property there,” he said.
Mr Magwanga maintained that the forthcoming by-election should be free and fair. He said no one should interfere with it.
