Whether or not veteran politician Raila Odinga wins the chairmanship of the African Union Commission (AUC) on Saturday is an outcome that is expected to trigger political realignments and shape the 2027 elections.
As Mr Odinga prepares to face opponents from Djibouti and Madagascar in Addis Ababa for the top continental seat, analysts say both President William Ruto and opposition politicians — including former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka — will be watching closely as what happens in neighbouring Ethiopia after the vote will have ramifications in Kenya.
For Mr Odinga, the outcome has the potential to put his illustrious local political career on the line. A loss is likely to puncture him and provide political fodder for opponents to deride him as a perennial loser, while a win would vindicate him but also challenge his influence in local politics.
If Mr Odinga assumes the seat in Addis, his first four-year term would end in 2029, two years after the next presidential election.
A general view of a plenary session at the African Union headquarters in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on November 17, 2018.
While he could opt to play a role in the election campaigns, his involvement would be diminished and controversial.
Politicians in Mr Odinga’s bases of Nyanza, Coast and Western, who have relied on his popularity to win their seats in successive elections, also face a bleak future if the former prime minister wins the continental seat.
In his ODM, the outcome would determine the future of the party, which has fielded Mr Odinga as its presidential candidate in the last four consecutive elections.
Already, senior members of the party are pulling in different directions, with the events in Addis likely to determine if the party can hold together or splinter ahead of the next elections.
For President Ruto, a victory for Mr Odinga would be a major boost in his bid to inherit some of the opposition bastions, including the Nyanza, Coast and Western blocs.
It would also cement the political rapprochement between the ruling UDA and ODM, ensuring political stability and a possible alliance in 2027.
On the contrary, a defeat for Mr Odinga has the potential to trigger a political fallout with Dr Ruto, which could be costly for the President’s re-election bid.
Dr Ruto is struggling to hold on to the Mt Kenya voting bloc that brought him to power following the impeachment of Mr Rigathi Gachagua as deputy president.
He has significantly reduced his visits to the Mountain while more than doubling his trips to the western part of the country.
President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga in Uganda in February 2024.
Photo credit: File | Nation Media Group
“We will have our own presidential candidate as ODM and if there is a need for an alliance with other like-minded parties, we will agree on the best candidate. But we will cross that bridge when we come to it,” Dr Oginga said.
He added: “ODM cannot collapse just because Raila has gone to the AU. "He will be there to give us guidance and the law will not stop him. We want to strengthen the party so that when he comes, it will be bigger and stronger. We will not cede our strongholds to anyone.
"If Ruto wants to be in a coalition with us, we will have to discuss but with our candidate in place. Dissolving ODM is also out of the question. We did that during the NDP era when we decided to work with former President Daniel Moi and it worked against us.”
Raila possible candidature
However, there is nothing stopping Mr Odinga from stepping down to come back and run if he wins in tomorrow’s election.
But it would be a big gamble for him to leave such a high-profile job to seek the presidency, which has eluded him in his five previous attempts.
Prof Macharia Munene, a university lecturer and political analyst, notes that Mr Odinga is likely to be on the ballot in 2027 if he loses the election.
He says a loss in the AUC elections would present Dr Ruto with a new headache in dealing with Mr Odinga, who is seen by those in government as a nuisance.
“Nothing is guaranteed. He could win or lose. If he wins, some people would be happy because the political space would be open. If he loses, he would certainly be a candidate in 2027.
But at the same time even if he wins there is no guarantee that he will not run,” says Prof Munene, adding that people should be prepared for surprises.
He adds that it would be a big win for President Ruto if Mr Odinga emerges victorious since a credible political opponent would be kept away. At the same time, Mr Odinga’s supporters would consider Dr Ruto a reliable ally who had ensured the veteran politician ascended to the continental seat.
“There is a feeling that Raila is a problem and has the power to stir political emotions. The last thing Ruto wants is a vibrant campaign in 2027.
"A Raila victory (in Addis Ababa) would be a blessing in disguise. The way ODM is talking, it is as if Raila would be their candidate if he loses the AUC race,” he says.
The don adds: “If Raila, (Kalonzo) Musyoka and Ruto contest the 2027 presidential race, projections are there would be no clear winner. But if Raila is out of the equation, the campaigns would not be competitive,” he says.
Uriri MP Mark Nyamita, who is an ODM legislator, describes Mr Odinga as a central figure in the country’s elections, saying his presence or absence would definitely affect the 2027 polls.
Mr Nyamita notes that whether he wins or loses, the political realignments will largely be determined by the political direction he takes.
In the event of a victory, the ODM MP observes that President Ruto would easily appeal to Mr Odinga’s support base. He notes that Dr Ruto has campaigned vigorously for Mr Odinga and would easily take credit for a victory.
“It would be the second time that Ruto has played a crucial role in ensuring Raila’s victory. In 2007, Ruto delivered votes to Raila that made him the country’s prime minister. So ODM regions would not find it difficult to support President Ruto for a second term,” he said.
Should he lose, Mr Nyamita says the impact will depend on the political direction the veteran politician takes.
He says if Mr Odinga sticks with Dr Ruto, political stability would continue until 2027 without any new major realignments.
“If he decides to run, then everybody would go back to the drawing board,” he says.
Kimilili MP Didmus Barasa, however, notes that ODM members are already laying the groundwork to return to opposition politics.
The UDA MP cites ODM’s threat to impeach National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula over his decision to retain Kenya Kwanza as the majority coalition over Azimio despite a court decision, as a tell-tale sign.
“The outcome of the (AUC) elections would depend on so many factors, not necessarily how vigorously you campaigned. The way our ODM colleagues have started behaving, it’s as if they have learnt that things are not going well in Addis,” said Mr Barasa.
Kimilili MP Didmus Wekesa Barasa.
Photo credit: File | Nation Media Group
He added: “Why have they started threatening us? They say they will impeach Speaker Wetang’ula. We want to tell them that we can also decide to go back to square one.”
“It is going to be messy, noisy and with casualties, given the way Parliament is being run without regard to the law. It will not be business as usual,” said National Assembly minority leader Junet Mohammed, a close ally of Mr Odinga, who has in recent months vigorously supported Dr Ruto.
A possible fallout between Dr Ruto and Mr Odinga would also directly affect the five ODM members appointed to the Cabinet.
President Ruto has included top former ODM party officials in his Cabinet by appointing Mr Opiyo Wandayi (Energy and Petroleum), Mr John Mbadi (National Treasury and Economic Planning), Mr Hassan Joho (Mining and Blue Economy) and Mr Wycliffe Oparanya (Cooperatives and MSMEs).
Mr Barasa also observes that some politicians, especially from Nyanza, are quietly praying for Mr Odinga to lose for their own political survival.
“A Raila victory in the AUC race would mean that no one will be elected because they are fierce defenders of Mr Odinga but on the basis of their manifesto and development track record,” says Mr Barasa.
But UDA organising secretary and Mwala MP Vincent Kawaya says that the outcome will not cut the political ties between Dr Ruto and Mr Odinga.
“I really want Raila to win. If he wins, politics would probably change depending on how the campaigns were handled. Ruto has given his all in the (AUC) campaigns. Based on that, it would be unlikely for Raila to break the relationship,” says Mr Kawaya.
He adds: “I don’t see any reason why Raila would not support Ruto whether he wins or not. If he doesn’t win, I foresee the formation of an alliance between UDA and ODM with Raila playing a key role in Ruto’s re-election,” he says.
Mr Musyoka, the Wiper leader, has since asked Mr Odinga to rejoin him in the struggle to free the country from the mismanagement of the Kenya Kwanza administration.
“Raila is going to seek the African Union seat and I am telling him to go but if things don’t go well, he should come back so that we liberate Kenya,” Mr Musyoka said on Tuesday in Mombasa.
Political analyst Javas Bigambo notes that if he wins the seat, Mr Odinga will proudly wear the cap of an African statesman, effectively reducing his direct influence in local politics.
“If he loses, he will remain politically active in Kenya, with a possible showdown with President Ruto in 2027,” he says.
In the event of defeat, the analyst adds, Mr Odinga would also face an uphill task of damage control as he tries to reinvent himself politically, even though he will be under pressure to hang his boots.
Mr Musyoka and other opposition politicians would likely pressure him to back one of them, having supported the former prime minister in the last election.
