The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) faces a rehearsal of a make-or-break task tomorrow (Thursday) as it strives to deliver credible by-elections and restore confidence ahead of the 2027 General Election.
The political wave building in the country leaves little doubt that 2027 will be a high-stakes national exercise that, if mishandled, could threaten the nation’s stability.
Analysts say the by-elections in 24 electoral areas serve as a litmus test for the country’s electoral preparedness, credibility of the reconstituted commission and the realignment of the political forces.
Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) Chairperson Erastus Edung Ethekon (right) Vice-Chairperson Fahima Araphat Abdallah (centre) and commissioner Hassan Noor Hassan before the Constitution Implementation Oversight Committee at Parliament Buildings in Nairobi on September 25, 2025.
Photo credit: Dennis Onsongo | Nation Media Group
The IEBC currently comprises Chairperson Erastus Edung Ethekon, Deputy Chairperson Fahima Araphat Abdallah, and Commissioners Anne Njeri Nderitu, Moses Alutalala Mukhwana, Mary Karen Sorobit, Hassan Noor Hassan and Francis Odhiambo Aduol, who came into office in July.
Already, politicians are issuing both cautionary and reckless statements about 2027 warning the IEBC that no “monkey business” will be tolerated.
Although delivering credible elections is a shared responsibility—IEBC as the host, supported by cohesion agencies and security organs—public scrutiny remains fixed on the commission.
The electoral agency committed to a free and transparent process in the minipolls which is the team’s first major assignment to supervise in a contest that has drawn a political contest between President William Ruto and the United Opposition alliance.
President Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance is keen to demonstrate its grassroots dominance in the by-lections while Mr Gachagua and his team is expected to use the mini-polls to test their camp’s political appeal for the 2027 election.
Mr Ethekon assured that matters touching on electoral integrity are handled with utmost seriousness, and that the commission’s officers operate independently and within the law.
Regarding the by-elections, Mr Ethekon said they will be conducted within the legal framework and in the presence of observers, agents and other stakeholders, to reinforce transparency.
He reaffirmed that the IEBC “does not take instructions from any individual, political actor, or external interest,” and that the commission remains committed to upholding the Constitution and delivering a credible process.
On Tuesday, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka told Nation that the United Opposition is “taking nothing less than total commitment to an honest General Election” in 2027.
“We are pursuing reforms on how we vote, count, and declare results. We are opposed to the Elections (Amendment) Bill 2024, now in the Senate, which seeks to stop live streaming of results from the national tally centre. This can usher in moves to rig the vote,” he said.
Speaking separately after spearheading campaigns for the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) candidate Stanley Kenga in Kilifi’s Magarini Constituency, Mr Musyoka said the new IEBC team has no option but to get it right or else lose public faith even before the 2027 General Election. He added Kenyans have set the bar high for the commission and they risk being shown the door if they mess up in the by-election process.
"This is a new IEBC team and we all know how it came to be in office. It is the lowest rated public institution when it comes to trust by the public, so the chairman and his commission have a huge responsibility. If you do not get this one right, Kenyans will not have confidence in you to manage the elections in 2027," he said.
Wiper Patriotic Front Leader Kalonzo Musyoka arrives at Ngalula in Adu Ward as he leads United Opposition campaigns in Magarini constituency for DCP candidate Stanley Karisa Kenga on November 24, 2025.
Photo credit: Pool
The United Opposition has filed a court case seeking four key orders, including compelling the IEBC to gazette polling stations at least six months before the General Election.
They also want a declaration that presidential results announced at the constituency level are final, and that ballot reconciliation must be conducted at polling stations.
Another key declaration sought is the nullification of the IEBC’s practice of centralising verification, collation, and declaration of presidential results at the national tallying centre.
“The national tallying centre should only collate and announce results it receives from constituencies—not ‘verify,’ change, or reject them,” said opposition lawyer Gitobu Imanyara.
Mr Musyoka said the IEBC is currently suffering a trust deficit, hence the heightened scrutiny from local and international actors.
Former Attorney-General Justin Muturi on Tuesday told Nation that “the IEBC is the one that is supposed to call out all those appearing to work towards bungling elections.”
IEBC official checks ballot boxes at Malava Boys High School tallying centre on November 25, 2025. They are to be distributed to polling stations ahead of Thursday’s parliamentary by-elections.
Photo credit: Isaac Wale | Nation Media Group
He said electoral malpractices should be brought to the IEBC’s attention so corrective measures can be taken.
“This is an IEBC recently appointed in an environment that did not enjoy national unanimity. The members were subjected to an authenticity test, and the results were far from average. The IEBC has been left to vindicate itself and assure all stakeholders that it can be the neutral arbiter required in 2027,” he said.
“Working in the electoral body, especially since the advent of multiparty democracy in 1992, has been a serious challenge. You join with your professional standing high but leave badly tarnished. Accepting to serve as a commissioner or chairperson is a daredevil decision,” he said.
Mr Wangwe warned that the IEBC “must realise it can become a bomb that will explode Kenya and her people, and also serve as a billboard of international shame—not forgetting that it can take Kenya back to the International Criminal Court (ICC).”
Political commentator and scholar Prof Peter Kagwanja said the IEBC must prove it has the capacity to deliver the 2027 General Election, starting with how it handles Thursday’s by-elections.
He said the international community should remain vigilant “since Kenya is too important a global player to be allowed to slip into instability.”
Prof Kagwanja added that there are serious doubts about the incumbent government’s commitment to democracy.
“We have heard government allies openly speak of rigging the 2027 General Election with no consequences. We have also heard war drums, with politicians threatening communities in cosmopolitan regions, including the President himself declaring he might consider not handing over power,” he said.
Last weekend, former Public Service CS Moses Kuria also added to the controversy.
“This government should realise that I am the one who taught it the little vote-rigging expertise it has… Leave rigging to me… and if this government tries, it must remember this is not Tanzania.”
He warned that Kenyans’ tolerance for compromised democracy is at its lowest, and that the IEBC must remain alert.
Prof Kagwanja said the National Security Council and National Security Advisory Committee must abandon self-interest and prioritise the country.
He urged all security agencies, the Judiciary, human rights groups and civic institutions to work together to safeguard peace, stability and prosperity, providing a foundation upon which IEBC can deliver a credible poll.
On November 24, 2025, Jubilee Deputy Party Leader Fred Matiang’i warned that “the government is determined to manage politics through state-sponsored violence and goons.”
He cautioned that the seeds of violence currently being planted could yield serious long-term consequences.
Dr Matiang’i urged the IEBC to call out those complicating its work of delivering credible elections.
Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) leader Rigathi Gachagua has repeatedly warned that the country is heading in a dangerous direction, alleging that some IEBC officials are already “cutting dirty deals.”
“I have credible intelligence about a senior IEBC official cutting corrupt deals in hotels and travelling in chartered planes to negotiate with government-allied politicians and junior IEBC officers,” he said on Sunday.
He said he has written to the IEBC chair demanding the implicated officials resign. also responded to Gachagua’s claims.
“The Commission acknowledges receipt of your correspondence. The concerns are weighty and deserve attention,” he said.
