From left: President William Ruto, ODM leader Raila Odinga and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.
The stage is set for a supremacy contest among Kenya’s political bigwigs in upcoming mini polls for 22 electoral positions, which could be a harbinger of the 2027 General Election battle lines.
Six National Assembly seats, one senatorial position, and 15 Member of County Assembly (MCA) vacancies are up for grabs in byelections that have been delayed for months due to the lack of a fully constituted Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC).
With the IEBC team now in office, President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga’s political alliance, and the emerging opposition bloc aligned with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and ex-Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka, are set to face a stern test.
The new IEBC chairperson, Erastus Ethekon, told the Daily Nation on Wednesday that the Commission was putting its house in order to deal with the myriad items on its in-tray, including the mini polls.
“We shall issue a comprehensive statement on pending issues in due course,” said Mr Ethekon in a phone interview.
The long-delayed mini polls have caused a representation crisis in various electoral areas.
The upcoming by-elections are poised to become a political battlefield where President Ruto, Mr Odinga, and Mr Gachagua’s new opposition force will all be put to the test against each other.
Beyond the traditional political heavyweights, the Generation Z vote is also expected to influence the poll's outcome, albeit only for those who were on the IEBC register as of August 2022.
The electoral vacancies arose from the deaths of sitting office bearers, successful court petitions and the elevation of two MPs to the Cabinet.
The IEBC, which had been crippled since January 2023 due to the absence of Commissioners, is now fully constituted following the recent swearing-in of the Chairperson and six commissioners; Ann Njeri Nderitu, Moses Alutalala Mukhwana, Mary Karen Sorobit, Hassan Noor Hassan, Francis Odhiambo Aduol, and Fahima Arafat Abdallah.
The poll agency has already received writs from parliamentary and county assembly speakers notifying it of the 22 electoral vacancies.
Among the notable ones is the Baringo Senatorial seat, which fell vacant following the death of William Cheptumo (UDA) in February, and the Bansisa parliamentary seat, left open after MP Hassan Kullow (UDM) died in a road accident in March.
The Malava and Magarini constituencies will also head to the polls following the death of Malulu Injendi and the Supreme Court’s nullification of Harrison Kombe’s (ODM) election, respectively.
Additionally, the Ugunja Constituency became vacant after its MP, Opiyo Wandayi (ODM), was appointed Cabinet Secretary for Energy and Petroleum, while Mbeere North legislator Geoffrey Ruku (DP) was appointed Cabinet Secretary for Public Service, replacing the sacked Justin Muturi.
Budgetary dilemma
The IEBC faces a budgetary dilemma regarding six more by-elections, including the hotly contested Kasipul and Mbeere North seats that fell vacant after the Treasury had approved the Commission’s Sh788 million allocation for 16 by-elections in the current financial year. The Commission now requires an additional Sh215.84 million to cover the new by-elections.
Kasipul fell vacant following the assassination of MP Charles Ong’ondo Were on April 30 in Nairobi.
The coming mini polls, however, are more than just a constitutional requirement; they are emerging as a test ground for the 2027 General Election.
Prof Macharia Munene of the United States International University (USIU) argues that these by-elections will test the strength and weakness of President Ruto and his opponents.
“Since the Gen Zs are yet to register in big numbers, it is premature to conclude that the by-elections will test their strength. More importantly, the by-elections will give the Ethekon-led IEBC an opportunity to rehearse for running of elections,” Prof Munene says.
Political analyst Martin Oloo agrees: “Indeed, all political knives will be drawn and sharpened during the by-elections.”
“The Kenya Kwanza/ODM alliance will be out to defend their position. They will also be keen to suggest that they are far from spent. They will want to assure their supporters that they are ready for 2027,” Mr Oloo says.
The opposition will be keen to demonstrate unity and sharper political acumen as the government in waiting, he adds.
“The duel is likely to be furious. Money will be poured. The political terrain is likely to be stormy!”
In Mbeere North, for instance, analysts say President Ruto’s camp will have to put in extra effort to reclaim the seat.
The former MP Ruku, who was appointed CS, was elected on a DP ticket, but UDA will likely fight for the seat, posing a serious political test for Deputy President Prof Kithure Kindiki to deliver the seat against Mr Gachagua’s Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP).
Kitui Senator Enoch Wambua, an ally of Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, a member of the united opposition faction, has opined that it will be tough for Dr Ruto to win any of the seats through his UDA party.
“I can tell you that if it is not a referendum on Ruto’s administration, it will be a big political lesson for Ruto. For him to secure any of those, he will have to work extremely work hard,” said Mr Wambua.
He said the by-elections present a mixed bag of political scenarios that could see key players make major political compromises.
“There could be political compromises. When the polls are called there could be compromises based on the political arrangements,” he said.
Similar remarks were made by Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi, who said that political figures aspiring for national offices will have to flex their muscles in the mini-polls. He said a loss for President Ruto would hurt his image going into the 2027 General Election.
“It would be an opportunity for the top leaders to measure their popularity. If you are President and the candidate you back loses in a by-election, it points to waning political influence,” said Mr Mwangangi.
Opposition leaders (from left): Eugene Wamalwa, Kalonzo Musyoka, Fred Matiang’i and Rigathi Gachagua in Kisumu on July 3, 2025.
He says the credibility of the mini-polls will also be a test of whether the country has the right people in the IEBC to deliver credible elections.
He foresaw the possibility of Mr Gachagua, Mr Musyoka and DAP-K led by Eugene Wamalwa fielding jointly in some areas.
It will depend on where the by-election is. If it is Ukambani, I don’t see why another affiliate party would want to field separately. For UDA, it would be bad for Kenya Kwanza because it would show how unpopular they have become since taking office,” he added.
Political analyst Dismas Mokua says the by-elections could give the Gen Zs an opportunity to introduce a new brand of politics, but warns against writing off seasoned politicians like President Ruto and Mr Odinga.
“Gen Zs can use the by-elections to introduce a new brand of politics by embracing democratic meritocracy in the selection and support of candidates for the by-elections. “They can practice democratic meritocracy by identifying the sharpest tools in the shed for political office. Political parties in Kenya have challenges during party primaries, and party nominees hardly represent the cream of the crop. Gen Zs will need to crystallise their agenda and identify leaders. A leaderless Gen Z may have challenges crafting a by-election winning strategy,” Mr Mokua argues.
He added that “writing off seasoned politicians may surprise Gen Zs as seasoned politicians have developed capacity to swim the volatile and complex political waters.”
“They have survival infrastructure and can maneuver turbulence besides crafting strategies for new scenarios. Ignoring or belittling seasoned politicians is a recipe for poor performance during the by-elections,” added Mr Mokua.
President Ruto, buoyed by his UDA party’s government machinery, is expected to use the by-elections to consolidate power.
President William Ruto addresses the public during a tree-planting exercise in Simotwo, Elgeyo Marakwet County on July 12, 2025.
Mr Odinga’s ODM, currently enjoying a fragile détente with Dr Ruto through bipartisan cooperation, could also be testing the strength of the ‘broad based,’ deal in ODM strongholds.
Mr Raila’s elder brother and Siaya Senator, Dr Oburu Oginga, recently hinted that ODM and UDA may engage in selective cooperation in certain constituencies.
Dr Oginga explained that ODM agreed with UDA not to face off in each other’s strongholds, on the basis of their collaboration.
“We agreed there should not be competition in the strongholds between ODM and UDA, the parties in this agreement, so that we don’t waste available resources. The strongholds are well known. I don’t expect anyone to come and ask me where the strongholds are because they are known.”
He noted that this, however, does not stop other parties from fielding candidates because Kenya is “a multi-party democracy.”
But ODM Secretary General Edwin Sifuna has always poured cold water on the idea of joint candidacy with UDA in some areas, stating the party has no formal coalition agreement with UDA and would field candidates across the country.
On Tuesday, Mr Odinga chaired the ODM party’s Central Committee that set October 2025 as the month for convening the National Delegates Convention (NDC).
“The NDC will, among other matters, consider reports from party organs, review and adopt party policy positions, elect national officials and chart the path forward in readiness for the 2027 General Election,” Mr Sifuna said in a statement to newsrooms.
ODM party leader Raila Odinga.
The committee, he noted, also adopted the programme for the Party’s 20th Anniversary celebrations (ODM@20).
“These celebrations will take place across all counties, culminating in a major national event in October 2025, which will reflect on the Party’s journey, achievements, and future direction.”
But ahead of the by-elections, the newly formed united opposition bloc led by Mr Gachagua, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, People’s Liberation Party chief Martha Karua, Eugene Wamalwa of DAP-K and Fred Matiang’i, among others, is also preparing to flex its political muscle.
This coalition is expected to field strong candidates, especially in politically volatile constituencies like Mbeere North, Malava and Magarini.
Former Chief Justice David Maraga, who has declared his interest in the presidency, as well as Busia Senator Okiya Omtatah, could also flex their muscles in the mini polls.
Of particular interest is Mbeere North, where Mr Gachagua’s DCP is likely to challenge UDA head-on in a bid to reclaim Mt Kenya seats.
Mr Gachagua, who was impeached as the deputy president in October 2024, has since accused Dr Ruto of sidelining the Kikuyu community and vowed to make him a one-term president.
But in this increasingly fluid political environment, a new force is emerging, Gen Z.
Buoyed by their recent successful anti-government protests and their growing digital activism, Kenya’s youth could influence these by-elections in unprecedented ways.
Their ability to rally behind independent or lesser-known youthful candidates could disrupt traditional party calculations, particularly in urban or mixed constituencies.
Mr Moses Omondi, an ODM Parliamentary aspirant who is seeking to replace Energy CS Opiyo Wandayi as Ugunja MP, told the Daily Nation that he was confident of securing the position.
“I'm anxiously waiting for IEBC to set clear dates of the poll and formally begin massive grassroots campaigns,” Mr Omondi said.
The youthful National Liberal Party Secretary General Omondi K’Oyoo, who is seeking the Kasipul parliamentary seat against late MP Were’s son Boyd Were (ODM), Philip Aroko and Newton Ogada urged for “free, fair and verifiable elections.”
“IEBC should rein in on violent candidates and disqualify candidates advancing this vice, given that Kasipul has been known as the bedrock of political thuggery, intimidation and violence from goons breaching electoral code of conduct,” said Mr K’Oyoo.
He said the by-election will be a major test for the new IEBC commission on their competence and commitment to uphold the rule of law and the will of the people.
In Banissa, both UDM and UDA are gearing up for a contest. Mr Hassan Shabaab has since declared interest in the ruling UDA ticket. Despite several other aspirants eyeing the seat, clan elders under the widely practised negotiated democracy had settled on Mr Ahmed Maalim Hassan alias Barre — a younger brother to the late MP Kullow — for the position.
This will be the first time that by-elections have been held since Kenya Kwanza rode to power in 2022.
At the height of a bitter fallout between then Deputy President Dr Ruto and his boss, now former president Uhuru Kenyatta, the ruling Jubilee Party suffered a string of losses in by-elections, especially in Mt Kenya. They include Kiambaa and Juja in Kiambu County — the home county of Mr Kenyatta.
Embakasi Central MP Benjamin Gathiru alias Mejjadonk, a close ally of Mr Gachagua, told Nation that the by-elections would present them with an opportunity to face off with Dr Ruto’s side.
“It will be a popularity test for UDA. In some places, people believe UDA is dead. Many parties will be fielding candidates, including our party (DCP). It is a chance for Kenyans to express how they feel about UDA,” said Mr Gathiru.
“I believe Gachagua, Kalonzo and Eugene (Wamalwa) will campaign together,” he added.
He further noted that there was a likelihood of the three fielding candidates jointly in some areas.
“It (mini-polls) is going to provide a pointer to what areas may have flipped against or in our favour,” said Kimilili MP Didmus Barasa.
“The changes in Azimio may not have much bearing because ODM still remains strong in its traditional backyards. UDA closing ranks with ODM would mean we do much better in some of the areas compared to our performance in 2022,” he explained.
Mr Barasa, however, acknowledged that they have to make compromises by agreeing to field jointly in some areas. He also said they need strong candidates to ensure victory.
“The by-elections will for sure be a litmus test. We have to ensure we get the best candidates. They will also provide an opportunity to field jointly with ODM,” added the MP.
Kakamega Deputy Governor Ayub Savula observes that both UDA and ODM will have difficulty in Malava.
Mr Injendi was elected on the now-dissolved Amani National Congress (ANC) ticket. ANC dissolved to join Dr Ruto’s UDA.
The IEBC’s whistle is about to blow, and as the political camps prepare to face off, the mini-polls may offer a preview of the 2027 electoral battlefield, complete with old alliances, new rivalries, and a rising generation that refuses to be ignored.
