The political war between President William Ruto and his deputy, Rigathi Gachagua , enters a defining phase this week when a motion to impeach the latter is expected to be introduced in Parliament.
Dr Ruto’s camp has insisted that the motion could come as early as tomorrow (Tuesday) even as it emerged that the ruling Kenya Kwanza Alliance was planning a Parliamentary Group meeting to decide on the matter that could redefine Kenya’s political landscape.
The PG expected to be chaired by Dr Ruto could set the tone on his relationship with his deputy because if the meeting sanctions the move, it will openly show the Head of State’s hand in the bid to oust Mr Gachagua, or he could intervene to de-escalate the crisis as urged by the Deputy President.
With both sides claiming to have the numbers to either approve or derail the motion, the country enters a week of intense lobbying given whichever camp that loses could face far-reaching political ramifications.
Dr Ruto’s allies, who insist that Mr Gachagua must be shed because of allegations of gross misconduct, claim to have marshalled more than 300 legislators, who support the move.
But the DP’s camp in the National Assembly insists it has the muscle to rally more than a third (117) MPs to deny their opponents the requisite two-thirds (233) needed to propel the impeachment trial to the Senate, where another two-thirds majority would be sufficient to send Mr Gachagua home.
Basking on the unity between Dr Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga , the President’s allies, however, hope to put up a spirited fight to send Mr Gachagua home. Dr Ruto’s UDA has the majority in the National Assembly at more than 130, with a larger percentage being loyal to the Head of State rather than the DP, followed by Mr Odinga’s ODM with over 85 MPs.
Former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party has about 29 MPs, while Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka boasts about 25 legislators, with both parties appearing to lean on Mr Gachagua’s side.
Nominated MP Sabina Chege, who claims to lead another faction of Jubilee, has, however, backed Mr Gachagua.
Mr Musyoka on Sunday termed “diversionary,” the impeachment plan against the DP, warning against attempts to bribe MPs to sign the motion. “This is a government that has obviously failed and the blame game continues. I want to suggest that Kenya Kwanza have their wars and tell a lot more things so that the country can be free.
“But let not MPs be paid Sh100,000 to put their signatures on the impeachment motion, we don’t want to go that way. Before you sign, let us know what it’s all about, we are not here to discuss those diversionary tactics,” Mr Musyoka said in Kitengela.
In Azimio, Gideon Moi’s Kanu and Eugene Wamalwa’s Dap-K, both with five MPs, are against the planned Gachagua ouster, with the former Defence Minister terming it a “red-herring”.
“While we respect the role of impeachment as a crucial tool for parliamentary oversight, our nation is facing pressing issues that demand urgent legislative attention and vigilance.
“We cannot be preoccupied with an impeachment as the country stares at significant failures in public policy decisions, including a potential takeover of key strategic national assets such as JKIA by the now infamous Adani Group ; failed funding model for tertiary education; and a broken public healthcare system,” Kanu said in a statement.
The statement, signed by the party’s Director of Communications Manasse Nyainda, added that “if Parliament decides to pursue impeachment, it should be of both the President and the Deputy President, having been elected as a package, for the Executive’s continued malfeasance.”
On the other hand, Amani National Congress associated with Prime CS Musalia Mudavadi has about seven MPs, and Ford Kenya, led by National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula , has about six, while independent legislators are about 12, all appearing to lean towards Dr Ruto’s side.
The DP has in the past two weeks stepped up his Mt Kenya mobilisation rallies, threatening that he will not go down alone, even as he maintained that the region overwhelmingly voted for the President and must maintain a major stake in the Kenya Kwanza administration.
But National Assembly Majority leader Kimani Ichung’wah, who has become the DP’s fierce critic from his Mt Kenya backyard, sees his outbursts as only having the potential to work against any efforts to save his skin. “When you find yourself in a hole that you just fell into and desire to get out, don’t dig,” Mr Ichung’wah said in light of the latest flare-ups by the DP against his boss.
Mr Gachagua has, however, insisted that no one has the capacity to remove him from office midway, telling Dr Ruto to let him complete his term and in 2027 decide on whoever he wants to work with. “No one can sack me midway and whoever wants to do so, let him come to you (the people) and seek your opinion first. Let them allow me to finish the first term. I am being fought for speaking the truth because there is no need to tell lies all the time,” he said on Friday when he attended a special AGM for Komothai Coffee Growers Cooperative Society in Githunguri, Kiambu County.
National Assembly Majority whip Sylvanus Ososo told Nation that Mr Gachagua's impeachment was now a matter of when not if. “We have 309 MPs signing the motion. This is overwhelming,” said Mr Osoro, adding it will be an uphill task for Mr Gachagua to counter the numbers,
Kimilili MP Didmas Barasa said they have no option but to impeach Mr Gachagua for “promoting tribalism”.
“His tribal sentiments have the potential to break down this country and we can no longer entertain them and allow him to continue chairing Cabinet sub-committee meetings.
“These are critical meetings that form an agenda for full Cabinet meetings and having such a person chair them will be detrimental to other regions.”
Mr Barasa said the DP must be relieved of his duties. “He should start packing his personal effects in the office of the Deputy President and take them home because this Christmas he will be doing the celebrations at home as an ordinary citizen,” he said.
ODM Deputy Organising Secretary and Saboti MP Caleb Amisi also weighed in on the DP’s ouster motion, saying Dr Ruto has the majority of his party’s support.
“Ruto has the Central MPs by virtue of being the leader of UDA, a party they were elected on, but Rigathi has eloped with the ground. A Rigathi without a state flag won't move a mountain. Therefore, another central leader will emerge with help from the Kenyatta family and business community should the DP be impeached,” Mr Amisi said.
“There will be a Kikuyu candidate on the ballot and it is likely that the next election shall end in a run-off. That’s what people like Kalonzo depend on. Kalonzo has about 24 MPs while Wamalwa has five, but only one walks his journey. Gachagua MPs are not more than 20, yet they need at least 110 MPs to deny the assembly the proverbial two-thirds.”
But DP Gachagua’s allies indicated that they were already mobilising to fight the ouster bid in the legislature and outside.
Embakasi North MP James Gakuya, a close ally of Mr Gachagua, disclosed plans by the DP camp to exploit every available mechanism, including courts, to fight the ouster bid. He dared those pushing for the impeachment to table the motion, instead of engaging in unending rhetoric.
“Let them table the motion so that we can deal with it on the floor of Parliament. They cannot keep talking about impeachment for weeks. Let them table the motion if they have the numbers as they claim. I want to tell them that we are also mobilising,” Mr Gakuya said.
“They should also know that justice can be found elsewhere, not just in Parliament. When the motion comes, we will fight it, both in Parliament and outside. As we fight in Parliament, other people will go to court.”
He claimed of a plot by the government to use money to influence the outcome of the process even as he said that “resignation would be the last option for Gachagua.”
Embakasi Central MP Benjamin Gathiru Mejjadonk, another close ally of Mr Gachagua, had earlier told Nation that they had analysed how the MPs are likely to vote. In their calculation, the MP said only about 180 MPs would support the motion at the voting stage.
“They can’t get two-thirds (233 MPs). We talk, and some of those MPs who are on their side will not vote. They will not be available in Parliament for the final vote. You can rent a Kikuyu, but you can’t buy them,” Mr Gathiru said. “The highest number they can get is 180 MPs. We have done our maths and we dare them to bring it on.”
Mr Gachagua’s camp is said to be actively poisoning the ground for MPs perceived to be critical to him as part of his strategy to counter the ouster plan.
United States International University Prof Macharia Munene says the relationship between Dr Ruto and his deputy seems to be irreparable. “They are no longer in any relationship to speak of. It actually depends on what Ruto wants, not so much on Gachagua's activities or statements. Although there are many efforts to gloss over the differences, they’ll not bear fruit,” Prof Munene says.
He argues that the impeachment motion could proceed, despite the repercussions on the ruling party UDA and the government. “Stability in the party or the government is not the issue given that what counts is what Ruto wants. The rest are wishful thinking. Impeachment is a political accusation that the DP has a case to answer. Given the number of MPs who supposedly have signed the petition, he is likely to be impeached.
“It is up to the Senate to try and either convict or acquit him. He might be able to persuade enough senators to acquit.”
For Mr Martin Oloo, the planned ouster is “a poisoned chalice for President Ruto”.
“Ruto is popularising Riggy G and making him a victim of being hounded by cartels from the official number two slot. It will backfire badly. Members of Parliament from ‘Murima’ are likely to grow cold feet and fear retribution and political annihilation from the political pedestal. Their withdrawal will halt the impeachment and open up unimaginable political hostilities,” Mr Oloo told Nation.
Prof Gitile Naituli said there is a growing determination to impeach the DP. “It is possible because Gachagua cannot marshal the numbers required to avoid his removal. Their differences seem to be irreconcilable, but only the President can save him,” Prof Naituli told Nation .
He says Mr Gachagua stepped on many toes, hence does not enjoy enough support to save his political soul. “He ought to have been accommodative to all.”
On Sunday, the planned impeachment of the DP took centre stage at a Church service attended by National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula in Machakos County.
"Starting this Tuesday we are going to cut a part of us which is trying to divide us along tribal lines," Elgeyo Marakwet Woman Representative Caroline Jeptoo said.
