Incumbent governors lead with five days to elections

Incumbent governors in Kisumu, Nyamira, Kajiado and Vihiga are commanding a lead in their quest to defend their seats according to the latest opinion poll released by Infotrak. According to the poll, in Kisumu County, it is an easy race for the incumbent Anyang’ Nyong’o, who is leading with 71 per cent, followed by his predecessor Jack Ranguma in second place with 15 per cent.

According to the poll conducted on July 21 with 600 respondents polled from across all the seven constituencies, only nine per cent of the voters are undecided, while five per cent refused to answer.

In Nyamira, Mr Amos Nyaribo of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), who took over following John Nyagarama’s death in 2020, is leading the crowded race of 12 candidates with 31 per cent, with his closest challenger having 19 per cent while ODM treasurer Timothy Bosire is third with nine per cent.

The pollster sampled 600 respondents from all four constituencies and 20 wards in the county in the poll conducted on July 21, with a 95-degree success.

By the time the poll was conducted, 18 per cent were still undecided while seven per cent refused to answer.

In Vihiga, incumbent Wilber Ottichilo is leading with 42 per cent with his predecessor Moses Akaranga coming a distant second with 13 per cent.

Read: Double-edged sword of opinion poll politics as coalitions differ on rating

Sabatia MP Alfred Agoi of ANC is third with 11 per cent while Senator George Khaniri is fourth with only six per cent. Mr Francis Ominde polled only one per cent.

The poll, however, indicates that out of the 600 respondents polled from the five constituencies, 20 per cent are still undecided, while six per cent refused to answer. The poll was conducted on July 20-21.

In Kajiado County, it’s a tight race, but the incumbent, Mr Joseph Ole Lenku of ODM, is leading with 29 per cent, followed closely by Mr David Nkedianye of Jubilee at 26 per cent while UDA’s Katoo Ole Metito is third with 22 per cent.

According to the poll conducted on July 16, a total of 800 respondents were sampled from the five constituencies, 16 per cent are still undecided while six per cent refused to answer.

Another titanic battle is looming in the Narok gubernatorial race where ODM’s Moitalel Ole Kenta is leading with 47 per cent popularity followed by UDA candidate Patrick Ntutu with 43 per cent.

In the poll conducted on July 16, a total of 800 respondents were polled from the six constituencies. The undecided voters are 14 per cent, while four per cent refused to answer.

In Homa Bay County, Ms Gladys Wanga is leading with 51 per cent, followed by former Nairobi governor Evans Kidero, with 34 per cent.

The poll conducted on July 31 with a survey sample of 800 distributed across all the eight constituencies, indicates that 10 per cent of the voters are still undecided while five per cent refused to answer.

A distant third

In Migori County, Mr Ochilo Ayacko is ahead of the pack with 42 per cent, followed by Mr John Pesa, who has 24 per cent. Former Cabinet Secretary Dalmas Otieno is a distant third with five per cent approval rating.

The July 22 poll had some 20 per cent of the respondents still undecided, while six per cent refused to answer.

The poll covered all the eight constituencies and 40 wards in the constituency and had a sample size of 600 respondents with a margin of error of four per cent.

In Kisii County, Dagoretti North MP Simba Arati leads the crowded race of seven candidates for the gubernatorial seat with 60 per cent, followed by Ezekiel Machogu of UDA with 12 per cent, while immediate Transport CAS Chris Obure is third with two per cent.

Read: Ipsos poll: Raila leads Ruto with 6 percentage points

Current senator Sam Ongeri and Mr Manson Onyongo also have two per cent each. Mr Josiah Onyancha and Mr Onjiri Ratemo polled less than 0.5 per cent.

The 1,200 respondents were drawn from all the nine constituencies in the county in the survey conducted on July 20, with a 95 per cent degree of confidence.

In the Kakamega gubernatorial race, ODM candidate Fernandes Barasa is ahead with 40 per cent followed by ANC’s Cleophas Malala who polled 28 per cent. The poll conducted on July 20-21 with 1,200 respondents, from all the 12 constituencies had 22 per cent of the respondents still undecided while nine per cent refused to answer.

In Trans Nzoia County, former Rift Valley Regional Commissioner George Natembeya commands a comfortable lead of 63 per cent followed by Kiminini MP Chris Wamalwa with 16 per cent.

In Busia County, ODM candidate Paul Otuoma is ahead of his competitors with 59 per cent followed by Nambale MP Sakwa Bunyasi with 17 per cent.

In Uasin Gishu County, Mr Jonathan Bii of UDA is leading the gubernatorial race with 44 per cent while businessman Zedekiah Bundotich Buzeki is second with 29 per cent.

Meanwhile, a Nation Media Group poll of gubernatorial contests in four key counties indicates likely presidential preferences in those regions, but also shows a high degrees of cross-party voting determined by local dynamics and individual appeal of the candidates.

The poll by Infotrak ranks Nairobi Senator Johnson Sakaja of Deputy President William Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza Alliance as the preferred gubernatorial candidate for Nairobi.

Elsewhere, three incumbent governors allied to Azimio la Umoja coalition flag bearer Raila Odinga trail their Kenya Kwanza rivals. They are James Nyoro in Kiambu County, Lee Kinyanjui in Nakuru and Wycliffe Wangamati in Bungoma.

In Nairobi, Mr Sakaja on the UDA ticket maintains a healthy lead polling 47 per cent against his closest rival Polycarp Igathe of Jubilee with 33 per cent.

In Kiambu County, Senator Kimani Wamatangi of UDA leads the pack with 29 per cent followed by former governor William Kabogo (Tujibebe party) with 17 per cent and Mr Nyoro (Jubilee) who is the incumbent, coming third with 13 per cent. Thika Town MP Patrick Wainaina Jungle has 12 per cent and vocal Gatundu South MP Moses Kuria of Chama Cha Kazi polling three per cent. 

Feuds within

In Nakuru, Senator Susan Kihika’s bid for governor has not been adversely affected by by feuds within the Kenya Kwanza grouping. She tops the gubernatorial contest in the county with a seven per cent lead over Governor Kinyanjui of Jubilee, polling 47 per cent against the incumbent’s 40 per cent.

Mr Stanley Karanja Chege (Independent) managed one per cent while Nicholas Munyua (Independent) and Elijah Chege (Independent) managed 0.5 and 0.4 respectively.

In Bungoma County, the outgoing Speaker of the National Senate Kenneth Lusaka (Ford-K) looks well poised to recapture the gubernatorial seat he held between 2013 and 2017. Running on the Ford Kenya ticket, he polls 47 per cent against incumbent Wycliffe Wangamati’s 34 per cent. 

Mr Zacharia Baraza (UDA) managed 1 percent.

Mr Wangamati is defending the seat on a Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K) .

Additional reporting by Macharia Gaitho