While government loyalists had expected the ruling to weaken Mr Gachagua’s grip on the region and trigger a shift in support towards Prof Kindiki, political observers say the opposite appears to have happened.
President William Ruto remains keen on reclaiming the Mt Kenya voting bloc that overwhelmingly backed him in the 2022 election. However, analysts argue that one of his biggest challenges remains how to neutralise Mr Gachagua’s perceived influence in the region.
'Ruling-generated sympathy'
"President Ruto would no doubt like to recapture the Mountain that largely made him President in 2022. One of his current dilemmas is how to deal with Mr Gachagua’s perceived influence. After trying several political formulas over the last 20 months with little success, the impeachment ruling would have worked in his favour had Gachagua’s supporters embraced it in a defeatist manner. Instead, that has not happened," said Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya.
Trans-Nzoia County Governor George Natembeya.
Photo credit: Dennis Onsongo | Nation Media Group
Mr Natembeya argued that the ruling appears to have generated sympathy for Mr Gachagua beyond political circles, including among sections of the legal fraternity.
"What has emerged is a national debate, even among legal professionals, many of whom appear troubled by a judgment that acknowledged violations of Mr Gachagua’s rights yet still upheld the impeachment," he said.
Murang’a Senator Joe Nyutu said Prof Kindiki had been expected to gain substantial political ground if Mt Kenya voters accepted the ruling and moved on from Mr Gachagua.
"It is not the case.hat we are witnessing is a situation where public opinion appears dissatisfied with the verdict, further hardening opposition sentiments against the government and its 2027 prospects," said Mr Nyutu.
According to the senator, Prof Kindiki increasingly finds himself viewed through the prism of the events that led to Mr Gachagua’s removal from office.
"Prof Kindiki appears, in the minds of many, as the man who benefited from a process they perceive to have been unjust. That perception is proving difficult to shake off," he said.
Mr Joe Nyutu.
Photo credit: Joseph Kanyi | Nation Media Group
However, Laikipia East MP Mwangi Kiunjuri defended the Deputy President aying he had unfairly been drawn into political battles that predated his elevation to the office.
"In all fairness, Prof Kindiki served as Interior Cabinet Secretary under the same administration in which Mr Gachagua was Deputy President," said Mr Kiunjuri.
"Mr Gachagua fell out with a significant number of elected leaders from Mt Kenya, who then moved against him. President Ruto subsequently appointed Prof Kindiki as Deputy President. It would be politically unfair to expect him to have rejected the offer."
Laikipia East MP Mwangi Kiunjuri during the interview with the Nation at his office in Nairobi.
Photo credit: File | Nation Media Group
Manyatta MP Gitonga Mukunji argued that Prof Kindiki finds himself on the wrong side of prevailing political emotions in the region.
"Prof Kindiki is standing on what many opposition supporters consider the politically incorrect side.He cannot escape the reality that he serves in a government that currently faces significant hostility in parts of Mt Kenya. Whether fairly or unfairly, he absorbs the collective criticism directed at the administration," said MP MUkunji.
On the other hand, Mbeere North MP Mr Leo Wamuthende said opposition leaders were deliberately targeting government figures in an effort to weaken them politically.
"The opposition wants Mt Kenya voters to reject even development projects in the name of avenging an impeached leader. It is unfortunate that some leaders want voters to ignore Prof Kindiki’s role in advancing development and security and instead reduce him to a casualty of political competition," he said during an interview on Inooro TV.
Mbeere North MP Leo Wamuthende.
Photo credit: DPCS
Gatundu North MP Elijah Kururia said the High Court ruling had strengthened Prof Kindiki’s constitutional position and should encourage Mt Kenya residents to view him as a strategic investment for the future.
"The ruling confirms Prof Kindiki as the legitimate Deputy President of Kenya. As a region, we should appreciate the value of having one of our own occupying such a senior office. We have a tendency of sabotaging ourselves politically, and we should be careful not to lose this opportunity,” he said.
Kirinyaga Woman Representative Njeri Maina, however, argued that President Ruto’s administration continues to face deep hostility in Mt Kenya, making Prof Kindiki’s political task more difficult.
"The presidency consists of the President, the Deputy President and the Cabinet. If the government has acquired a negative image among voters, that perception naturally affects everyone within the Executive.It is therefore up to Prof Kindiki to win hearts and minds. I wish him well because, judging by the intensity of opposition sentiments in the region, he will need all the political goodwill he can get,"she said.
Kirinyaga Women Rep Jane Njeri Maina.
Photo credit: Dennis Onsongo | Nation
The same survey rated Mr Gachagua as the region’s most influential political figure, with a popularity rating of 70 percent.
Political observers say those numbers highlight the scale of the challenge facing Prof Kindiki as he seeks to emerge as the region’s principal government-aligned leader ahead of 2027.
Starehe MP Amos Mwago argued that the High Court ruling may have inadvertently strengthened Mr Gachagua’s standing while complicating Prof Kindiki’s efforts to consolidate support in Mt Kenya East.
Public Service Cabinet Secretary Geoffrey Ruku has recently championed the creation of a voting bloc comprising Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi and Kirinyaga counties to rally behind Prof Kindiki.
"Many legal analysts appear unconvinced by the reasoning behind the Gachagua ruling and see political undertones in it.That sentiment could also influence public perceptions regarding other impeachment-related cases, including that of former Meru Governor Kawira Mwangaza,” Mr Mwago said.
Like Mr Gachagua, Ms Mwangaza has refused to retreat from politics after her removal from office. She has since launched the Umoja na Maendeleo Party and has become one of Prof Kindiki’s most vocal critics in Meru County.
In a recent address in Meru County, Prof Kindiki appealed to voters to view his political journey through a long-term political lens.
"As Deputy President, I only need to serve my boss diligently for the next several years before seeking higher office. The opposition may not even produce a viable presidential candidate, meaning our wait could be much longer. I represent your best opportunity to reach the top,"he said.
But Naivasha MP Jayne Kihara dismissed the argument saying voters were more concerned about governance than regional representation.
Prof Kindiki’s challenge is compounded by Mr Gachagua’s reaction to the court setback. Rather than retreating, the former Deputy President emerged defiant, vowing to intensify efforts to remove President Ruto from power in 2027.
Political analyst Festus Wangwe said Mr Gachagua’s post-verdict posture signalled renewed determination.
"His statement after the ruling reflected a man determined to escalate the Wantam campaign and pursue political revenge," said Mr Wangwe.
"He must actively build political support. Many leaders appear reluctant to defend him publicly. Even within Mt Kenya East, there is no unanimous backing of his leadership project," he said.
According to Mr Wangwe, current political conversations in the region continue to be dominated by figures such as Rigathi Gachagua, Uhuru Kenyatta, Martha Karua, Justin Muturi and Mithika Linturi.
"For now," he said, "Prof Kindiki still largely falls into the category of 'others'." Kindiki’s Mt Kenya Dilemma: Why Gachagua Verdict May Have Complicated Deputy President’s Political Path
