By the time Mr Kenyatta was running to Mr Odinga for help, he was escaping a deputy (Dr Ruto), who had perceivably become a serious challenge to his rule. Instead of attempting to impeach Dr Ruto, Mr Kenyatta came up with a hybrid solution. He packaged then Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang'i as his makeshift principal assistant and sidelined Dr Ruto.
Knowing all too well that Dr Ruto would likely invite his parliamentary numbers to destabilise his rule, Mr Kenyatta went for Mr Odinga and made him his political guard. This culminated in the March 9, 2018 handshake that won stability for the time being but ended in tears when both attempted to hatch a joint 2022 succession plan.
In the plan, Mr Kenyatta supported Mr Odinga to succeed him against his rebel deputy, Dr Ruto, who went ahead to the presidency after Mr Kenyatta’s backyard overwhelmingly voted for him. Seven years later, Dr Ruto encountered a perceived hostile deputy, Mr Rigathi Gachagua, whose removal from office he swiftly orchestrated through impeachment by Parliament.
Perhaps, in trying to do things differently, instead of tolerating Mr Gachagua like Mr Kenyatta had entertained him as a troublesome deputy, Dr Ruto ordered Mr Gachagua’s impeachment in October last year. In doing so, he most likely thought he would heal the incompatibility challenge between him and his deputy. He then chose Prof Kithure Kindiki, also from Mt Kenya—his then Interior CS—as his deputy.
President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga at State House in Mombasa on February 24, 2025.
Photo credit: PCS
“But things backfired since picking Prof Kindiki made the Mt Kenya region—formed the backbone of President Ruto’s rule—rebel and follow Mr Gachagua into the impeachment ditch, hold him up and bless him to become opposition,” says political analyst John Okumu.
He says Mr Kenyatta knew his rule was founded in Ruto's support base, hence avoided the miscalculation of impeaching him for fear of exposing his underbelly. “This is what Dr Ruto did not factor in in his Gachagua impeachment project. He only courted Mt Kenya numbers in both the National Assembly and the Senate but never considered its voters’ possible reaction.”
Believing that Prof Kindiki would take over Mt Kenya and lead it to continue loving Dr Ruto, the region has instead staged spirited resistance and stuck with Mr Gachagua, who has since directed it to sever ties with Kenya Kwanza and its re-election bid.
While Mr Kenyatta's immediate worry was how to keep his legislative agenda alive after his falling out with Dr Ruto, in the current equation, the incumbent has had his numbers right.
“It is in mitigating that deficit that Mr Kenyatta went for Mr Odinga to keep his government going. But in Dr Ruto's dilemma, his biggest worry is not legislative strength as he has it. His is about 2027 re-election,” says political analyst Macharia Munene.
He says, “the gravest mistake Dr Ruto made was to gamble with his numbers in his first term.”
Prof Munene says that “had Mr Kenyatta messed up his numbers during his first term, he would have lost the 2017 re-election bid, the outcome that is most likely to hit Dr Ruto in 2027”.
President William Ruto (left) and Raila Odinga at the African Union Commission headquarters in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on February 15, 2025.
Photo credit: Pool
He argues that had Mr Kenyatta impeached Dr Ruto in their first term, Mr Odinga would have seized the opportunity to team up with Dr Ruto and dethrone the incumbent in 2017.
Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology don Charles Mwangi says, “Similarly, Mr Kenyatta had to go for Mr Odinga and share with him government warmth to keep him close, away from pursuing a political revolution.”
Today, Dr Ruto is seen crafting a pact with Mr Odinga to bring him into the government to share with him the warmth of power to keep him off from pursuing a revolution. This is after the initial plan to have Mr Odinga elected the African Union Commission (AUC) chair flopped. Had that succeeded, Dr Ruto would have inherited Mr Odinga’s vote basket to keep his re-election bid alive. “Now this is where it gets interesting: While Mr Kenyatta only waged a full-scale war against his deputy in the second term, Dr Ruto has done it in the first term. The parallels are that Mr Kenyatta had nothing to lose, but Dr Ruto has everything to lose,” he said.
As Dr Ruto tries to find that balance to stabilise his reign for re-election, he has gone for Mr Odinga, whose 2027 ambitions remain unknown. Maragua MP Mary wa Maua says, “Mr Kenyatta knew he had ample space to cede to Mr Odinga's possible demands, including that of supporting him for the 2022 presidential bid...Dr Ruto does not enjoy that latitude. Dr Ruto can only promise Mr Odinga power sharing but most likely will not agree to back down from re-election to support Mr Odinga like Mr Kenyatta did. This makes the perfect problem for Dr Ruto who won the 2022 election with good ground, shot himself in the foot through a totally uncalled-for impeachment gamble that has now exposed him to grand blackmail from Mr Odinga, whose close allies insist that ODM must field a presidential candidate in 2027.”
As it gets crystal clear by every dawn to Dr Ruto and his handlers that Mt Kenya voting bloc remains a matter of life and death to his 2027 re-election bid, Prof Kindiki appears to have been briefed to give it his all and deliver it back to his boss. This, perhaps, explains why in the past one month, Prof Kindiki has been trying a combination of tricks that include meeting delegations at his official Karen residence, making cautious ground visits and receiving delegations at his Irunduni village home.
His message has been consistent: “We must not get invited to hate our government and the President we unanimously elected and who has the key to development.” Prof Kindiki has cited the revival of stalled projects to endear the government to the region. But Murang'a senator Joe Nyutu counters that “Mr Kenyatta was in that dilemma in his final term when he thought rapid developments would win Mt Kenya support for Mr Odinga.”
Instead, “we told him that development was our constitutional right and was not supposed to be attached to political support. Finally, we rebelled and went ahead to refuse to support Mr Odinga in 2022,” Mr Nyutu said.
Azimio la Umoja leader Raila Odinga and former President Uhuru Kenyatta during the prayer service for victims of police brutality in Nairobi on July 28, 2023.
Photo credit: Wilfred Nyangaresi | Nation Media Group
“We will not treat Dr Ruto differently ... Developing our region is our constitutional right and is not supposed to be tied to supporting his re-election bid ... We will ultimately vote for someone else, that is for sure.”
Mr Odinga on Thursday as he celebrated ODM's two decades of existence declared that "we do not just support and follow anyone just for the sake of it.”
Kisumu governor Prof Anyang' Nyong'o announced that "we in ODM at all times enter into partnerships with the ultimate goal of winning political power for ourselves as a party that has its independent and unique culture and values".
It is ODM's Secretary General Mr Edwin Sifuna's words that cut like a sharp knife into a red wound that "I personally cannot support President Ruto under whatever circumstances and even if my party boss Mr Odinga chose to I would advise him against it" that must be sounding the sword of Damocles to the president.
As it is, according to the Democratic Congress Party youth leader Ms Gladys Njoroge, a day is soon coming when President Ruto, Mr Gachagua and Prof Kindiki will realise that they all made grave mistakes and miscalculations about 2022-2027.
"Their petty quarrels have now handed Mr Odinga a huge edge in a government that was all theirs. From the government's comfort, the three are now 2027 gamblers as Mr Odinga remains strategically placed even to justifiably with immediate effect demand 90 percent of the government they owned," she said.
