What Raila wants in talks with Ruto

A new political pact between President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga, if fully implemented, will see the former Prime Minister controlling up to 50 per cent of the cabinet and more of the government.

This will be similar to the 2008 grand coalition government when he shared power with President Mwai Kibaki after the disputed presidential election a year earlier.

The proposed deal— agreed on at Mombasa State House on Monday and in the presence of deputy president Kithure Kindiki, majority leader Kimani Ichung'wah and his minority counterpart Junet Mohamed among other notable leaders — could be implemented as early as next week. Mr Odinga has promised a major announcement then.

Mr Ichung'wah and Mr Mohamed have already been instructed to fast-track relevant bills when they are tabled in Parliament. 

Mr Odinga, though said to be reluctant to join the executive as Prime Minister or in the same role by another name, could also be approved in record time should he change his mind, a source said.

The arrangement, according to those privy to the details, is likely to give ODM three more Cabinet slots in addition to the five it has. 

Mr Odinga’s party is also projected to get at least 10 Principal Secretaries slots.

President Ruto last week received a list of successful PS candidates after a week of interviews.

"There will be PS appointments, the number is not cast in stone but President Ruto was ready for it from the beginning. There are also parliamentary committee seats that Ruto has offered, at least five that used to belong to Kenya Kwanza. A thorough review of policies on education financing, health financing, economic and fiscal policies. Some CS positions are also expected," said a close ally of Mr Odinga, speaking on condition of anonymity because only the opposition chief and the President are allowed to discuss details of the deal for now.

The source also hinted that those brought on board by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua will be victims of the new power matrix, in all levels of power.

Read: Inside President Ruto, Raila Odinga deal after loss in AUC election

The Public Service Commission, chaired by Anthony Muchiri, interviewed a total of 109 PS candidates in a process that ended on January 31.

Already, panic has gripped cabinet ministers and principal secretaries as the development effectively renders a number of them jobless.

To prepare the ground, Mr Odinga embarked on a series of town hall meetings in his Nyanza and Western strongholds to convince his support base that working with and supporting Dr Ruto's government was in the best interest of the nation at the moment.

Cabinet Secretaries Opiyo Wandayi (Energy and Petroleum), Mr John Mbadi (National Treasury and Economic Planning), Mr Hassan Joho (Mining and Blue Economy), Mr Wycliffe Oparanya (Cooperatives and MSMEs) and Ms Beatrice Askul Moe (East African Community) are all former top ODM leaders.

Siaya Governor James Orengo has long insisted that the party must have a structured engagement with the government and not the loose one that makes it vulnerable to its partner, Kenya Kwanza.

"The leadership in Siaya has accepted that Baba (Mr Odinga) should engage in consultations that will eventually lead to a structured relationship where there is equity, fairness, justice and freedom in our country Kenya. I am sure Baba cannot go wrong if he wants to work for the people and where there is a structured relationship as we engage with other parties including people in and out of government," said Governor Orengo.

Mr Odinga has responded by agreeing on a yet-to-be-made-public pact with Dr Ruto.

The agreement could also mean that Odinga will hang up his political boots after the 2027 elections. 

His handlers say he doesn't mind supporting the president's re-election bid unless something 'drastic' happens.

Mr Odinga, those close to him say, is also aware that time may not be on his side, given that he'll be 82 when the next presidential election is called.

At his age, he is not ready for the rigours of a presidential campaign. 

At the end of the elections for the chairmanship of the African Union Commission (AUC) two weeks ago, Mr Odinga had to take time off to recuperate.

"Raila is out of the country for a short rest after a very grueling continental campaign. For the past year, his focus has been on the AUC. He is now concentrating on taking a break and catching his breath," said Denis Onyango, Mr Odinga's spokesman, then, before Mr Odinga jetted back for a media appearance at State House, Mombasa.

Read: Raila prepares ground before unveiling pact with Ruto next week 

The deal, designed to make Mr Odinga as comfortable as possible, could also see his allies grab a number of lucrative jobs in parastatals.

Many in the president's corner admit that the ODM leader came through for them "at a time of need" when popular protests by disgruntled Gen-Zs in 2024 threatened to topple his government. They, therefore, feel beholden to him, a position of weakness that the opposition leader could exploit to his advantage if he hasn't already.

But aware of the backlash likely to come from the proposed political deal, Mr Odinga has laid down some conditions for the president to meet for his own credibility before the deal is unveiled.

He has sent emissaries on the ground to prepare people for the announcement.

This was evident at a meeting with youth and elders in Kisumu on Tuesday, where many of those present told the Nation that Mr Odinga had tasked them with talking to people at grassroots level.

"We had a good meeting with Baba and he asked us to prepare the ground ahead of his deal which will be announced next week. He asked us to prepare the local people so that when the announcement is made, there will be no uproar. And if there is an uproar, he advised us to handle it by making his supporters understand why he has taken this step," said one of the youths, who spoke in confidence.

His consultative meetings with supporters and leaders ahead of the announcement is one of the strategies he is using to ensure that the decision he takes is the result of 'public participation' and buy-in from the people, rather than a top-down approach.

He kicked off the consultations in Kisumu on Tuesday, Siaya on Wednesday, Homa Bay and Migori on Thursday and supporters and leaders from Western region counties then gathered at Bukiri Primary School in Funyula, Busia County on Friday February 28 to celebrate ODM at 20. 

The party was formed in 2005 after a failed constitutional referendum. 

Mr Odinga has listed a series of 'conditions', which he calls irreducible minimums, which he wants the president to meet.

These are expected to be presented to the ODM party's Central Executive Committee for input from leaders before being presented as demands to Dr Ruto.

Read: Raila: These are the ills Ruto should urgently fix

This is also seen as his plan to project an image of being pro-people and championing their interests as opposed to being a traitor by joining Dr Ruto who has come under public scrutiny for failing to steer the country in the right direction through failed policies.

During his consultative meeting in Homa Bay and Siaya, Mr Odinga stressed that these need to be addressed as a matter of urgency.

Among the things he wants Dr Ruto to address immediately are an end to abductions, a fight against corruption, equity in resource allocation across the country, an end to the health crisis including fixing the Social Health Authority, at least 30 per cent devolution of funds to counties and an end to tribalism.

"We want the youth to be employed. Many patients are suffering in terms of health service delivery because of the introduction of the SHA, this is something that needs to be resolved so that people can get proper medication. All these problems can be solved. They need to be addressed," Mr Odinga said.

He added: "We want more resources to be devolved to the counties. We want the counties to be able to deal effectively with health care and infrastructure development should be devolved. If we do that, we will see resources in the counties increase by over 30 per cent and that is where we want them to go. These are some of the things that we need to put on the table as we speak.

To ensure that his troops are on the same page, Mr Odinga has also been meeting with his close allies who had previously taken a hard line against the inclusive government, and has managed to persuade them to support his next move.

The perceived change in attitude by Raila's close allies suggests an acceptance of the need for cooperation between the two main parties in Kenya.

Mr Odinga also appears to have listened to their demands and softened their hearts to accept their once bitter rival, Dr Ruto.

There were fears that should Dr Ruto fall out with Mr Odinga, there was no guarantee that the ODM 'experts' who had been appointed to government would continue in government in the absence of a structured pact.

Mr Odinga is aware of the impact his pact with Kenya Kwanza will have on the country, but has called on people to take the difficult decision to stabilise the country.

"We are in a very delicate situation and it depends on how we handle this situation as a people. If we handle it properly, it can actually be a moment to unite the nation. We have been building the nation for a very long time. We want to create a united nation called the Republic of Kenya. So whatever we want to do is to serve that purpose," Mr Odinga said.

Getting his party's blessing on Friday, when the ODM celebrated its 20th anniversary in Funyula, Busia County, is also seen as strategic for Mr Odinga, who was given the go-ahead to meet the President during the Central Management Committee meeting in Kisumu.

roudia@ke.nationmedia.com