Proliferation of small arms, organised crime gangs, low trust in electoral management agencies, inadequate conflict resolution capacities, fake news and propaganda are some of the things likely to fuel violence in the coming August elections.
In arid areas, competition for scarce resources for animals could likely spiral the potential for violence. The history of political violence in many parts of the country, lack of enactment of peace policies and non-acceptance of election results have also been pointed out as potential destabilisers of peace.
With barely 69 days to the elections, the country’s potential for election-related violence stands at 53.43 per cent in a recently concluded report by the National Cohesion and Integration Commission (NCIC).
This figure was arrived at after three sub-indices; pre-existing conflict factors (53.58 per cent), potential triggers (53.4), weak institutional capacities (53.32), were carefully scrutinised in a study conducted between January and April. The survey involved 1,914 respondents from across the country, NCIC Commissioner Danvas Makori said during the launch of the report yesterday in Nairobi.
The study categorised the potential for violence in three classifications, high risk (71 percent and above), medium high risk (54-70 per cent), medium low risk (35-53 per cent) and low risk (0-34 per cent).
Six counties have a high likelihood of experiencing election-related violence. They include Nairobi (79.85), Nakuru (75.77), Kericho (74.81), Kisumu (72.46), Uasin Gishu (72.25) and Mombasa (71.15).
Nakuru County was flagged as the centre for fake news, propaganda and incitement to violence, and the security apparatus was advised to be on the lookout for the propagation of the same via social media rather than the traditional incitement done in public rallies.
In Mombasa, the proliferation of criminal gangs was highlighted as the biggest threat to peace and stability during the elections, with the NCIC saying it had identified at least 93 criminal gangs in the Coast region alone.
The Rift Valley and Nyanza, according to the report, remain the most volatile regions in terms of violence as the election period draws nearer. Bungoma and Homa Bay counties were also classified as counties likely to cross over to the high-risk category over the coming days.
Counties at medium high risk include Narok, Marsabit, Laikipia, Lamu, Baringo, Isiolo, Meru, Nandi, Samburu and Bomet.
In the low risk category were Embu (29.70 per cent), Nyandarua (31.93), Makueni (32.07), Busia (32.73), Taita Taveta (32.87), Tharaka Nithi (33.15), Kitui (33.86) and Kajiado (34.87).
Rising levels of corruption, high levels of unemployment, lack of inclusivity within government appointments, poor implementation of constitutional provisions, slow judicial processes and weak public institutions pose a serious threat to Kenya’s democratic governance space, the study showed.
Kenyans also have very low trust in the institutions charged with managing the elections. For instance, the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission was rated at 26 per cent, the Judiciary at 23 percent and the National Police Service at 19 per cent.
A whopping 55.42 per cent of the respondents felt that drugs and substance abuse had a direct influence on the youth’s participation in electoral violence.
The NCIC study also showed that most pre-existing conflict situations mostly take an inter-ethnic form, with disputes over land, boundaries, market, border, livestock, pasture and water, which if not monitored, will only be exacerbated during the elections.
Speaking during the launch of the conflict hotspot mapping for Kenya report, the NCIC chairperson, the Reverend Samwel Kobia, said just as a chain is as strong as its weakest link, so is Kenya only as strong as its election years, and called on the key political players to promote peace and stability in the country.
“I urge you to be guided by the rule of law, do not manipulate the masses, resist hate speech and propaganda and ensure we have peaceful means for dispute resolution after the election,” the NCIC boss said.
Dr Kobia also urged institutions managing the elections to ensure transparency, and to be firm in conducting their mandate. He asked the civil society organisations to assist in fostering better community relationships at the grassroots, saying a vital social re-engineering would go a long way in promoting national values among Kenyans.
Interior Ministry Secretary for National Administration Arthur Osiya pointed out that lack of trust among Kenyans and a sub-culture of violence promoted by politicians were among key factors resulting in chaos in the previous election cycles, and assured Kenyans that the government was on high alert to quell any violence.
“We have reviewed our policies and we will ensure that threats are neutralised on time so that Kenyans have a peaceful election,” he said.
Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission (EACC) Commissioner Monica Muiru said her institution would ensure that public resources are used for their intended purpose and reduce cases of violence erupting from angry citizens who are denied crucial services by corrupt leaders.
Head of Development Cooperation at the Swedish Embassy in Kenya Annika Otterstedt said her country hoped for a peaceful election and that her government looked forward to Kenya being a future point of reference on how to successfully conduct a peaceful election.
The United Nations Resident Coordinator in Kenya, Dr Stephen Jackson, equated democracy with the rough and tumble often witnessed in political wrestling and said that elections provided the perfect wrestling grounds to breed democracy.
Just as wrestling rings are encircled by strong ropes, Dr Jackson said Kenya’s ropes, made up of the civil society, the NCIC, Judiciary and the Police Service should be used to contain the rough patches that come with the elections.
“Kenya’s strongest rope is the country’s national peace infrastructure. This rope, when administered effectively, will keep the rough and tumble where it belongs,” he said.
