The 2027 presidential poll remains wide open after ODM leader Raila Odinga’s brother Oburu Oginga threw a political curveball, suggesting that President William Ruto's ability to secure ODM’s support depends entirely on his performance.
Dr Oginga, also Siaya senator, said President Ruto's development record will determine whether ODM considers backing him for re-election or not.
His statement has opened the door to a possible political realignment, even as opposition luminaries vowed to continue broadening their base to attract more leaders into their fold.
Oburu: We are in broad-based government as ODM, not as individuals
Former deputy president Rigathi Gachagua , Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka , Peoples’ Liberation Party chief Martha Karua , DAP-Kenya’s Eugene Wamalwa, ex-Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i among other opposition leaders, have vowed to build a major coalition that could send Dr Ruto home.
Dr Oginga’s warning shot that ODM’s 2027 support is not guaranteed for the Head of State has further thrown a spanner in the works for President Ruto , whose UDA party entered into a collaboration with Mr Odinga’s ODM through a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) inked in March.
Despite the MoU, Dr Oginga affirmed that there was no solid Ruto-Raila pact for 2027 general election.
“Our agreement with the government through the MoU we signed in March is hinged on a 10-point agenda which we are seeking the achieve through collaborative measures.”
“We shall work with them until 2027 and if we recognize that we worked well, we shall agree, if not, we shall part ways,” Dr Oginga asserted.
Dr Oginga has in the past said ODM was ready to pay Ruto’s political debt following his support for Mr Odinga’s presidential ambition in 2007.
The recent ODM-UDA MoU has ten-point agenda for action, which if implemented fully, the party would consider backing Dr Ruto’s re-election, according to the Siaya senator.
They include; full implementation of Nadco (National Dialogue Committee) report, inclusivity in budgetary allocations and public appointments, protection and strengthening of devolution, economic investment in the youth and leadership, integrity and end of opulence.
Others are; guaranteeing right to peaceful assembly, compensation of all pending claims of rights victims, auditing of national debt and how it was used, fighting corruption, ending wastage of public resources as well as protecting the sovereignty of the people, ending abductions, respecting constitutionalism and rule of law and press freedom.
President William Ruto shares a light moment with Siaya Governor James Orengo and Siaya Senator Oburu Oginga at Jaramogi Oginga Odinga University of Science and Technology on January 14, 2023.
Photo credit: File | Nation Media Group
The Siaya senator said ODM party only came in handy to help stabilize president Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza administration amid heightened anti-government protests that threatened to tear the country apart.
“We agreed to support the government after wide consultations with our supporters so that it doesn’t fall. So, even if they are staggering, let them that just stagger until the elections,” the Siaya senator said.
He went: “We must allow democracy to prevail including in the election. There is a system that must be followed even when you want to send home a president.”
“As a party we agreed not to let the established system be destroyed. Destroying a house is easy because you don’t even need a mason but building a house is not an easy task. So we could not allow the push for Ruto must go,” Dr Oginga said.
He was referring to last year’s anti-government protests spearheaded by the Gen Z’s that culminated into parliament invasion.
Dr Oginga said there is an established constitutional system that must be followed to send the president home and not through unconstitutional means
“After all, the president governs for a very short time. It’s just five years and we go to the election. So we had to preserve the administration for the sake of peace and unity of the country.”
He went on: “If Ruto delivers on the promises he made to our people, especially in terms of development and inclusivity, then we will consider supporting him. Performance is key.”
His statement came at a time when President Ruto intensified his charm offensive in opposition strongholds, launching several development projects and courting local leaders.
The President held a three-day development tour of Migori county from Sunday to Tuesday this week, holding a series of engagements that may further shape the region’s political direction.
Whereas Dr Oginga did not mention which camp Mr Odinga would join if he abandons Dr Ruto in 2027, he noted that it was still early to know which coalition will go to the election.
He challenged Mr Gachagua’s opposition camp to continue preparing for the 2027 election, but added that “the final coalition will be very different from what you are seeing now.”
“Their unity has no problem, let them just try but causing division and destruction of the country, that’s what we cannot allow. We cannot allow anything that affects the people.”
He went on: “We are a democracy and cannot curtail peoples’ freedom of speech and association. If you do that, it ferments and can even lead to military takeover and instability like in countries like Somalia, South Sudan or even Sudan.”
Dr Oginga also delved on the matter of the upcoming by elections, where he explained that ODM agreed with UDA not to face off in each other’s strongholds, on the basis of their collaboration.
“We agreed there should not be competition in the strongholds between ODM and UDA, the parties in this agreement. So that we don’t waste available resources. The strongholds are well known. I don’t expect anyone to come and ask me where the strongholds are because they are known.”
He noted that this, however, does not stop other parties from fielding candidates because Kenya is “a multi-party democracy.”
Dr Oginga also lashed out at Siaya Governor James Orengo over his criticism of the broad-based government.
“He has continued to insult leaders, labelling us as praise and worship team. Personally, I cannot worship my fellow human being…he repeats that we must be in the struggle against the government yet he is a governor.”
“As elected leaders, we represent the people because not everybody can sit on the table where resources are shared. We have scarse resources and that’s why we have peoples’ representatives to negotiate on their behalf and this is what Orengo should be doing for the sake of the people of Siaya.”
He reiterated that “the constitution allows inter relationships between two levels of government and if they fight each other, the people will suffer.
I’m asking Orengo to stop activism. If you are elected, you should not play politics of activism. You want to fight for what when the people are waiting for your services?”
“My opinion is that let CDF fund be but be delinked from MPs. So that it remains as a constituency fund designed to serve specific projects within the constituency.”
“Let the governor not be left to run it. They could interfere and dilute it. It may not be as effective as it is because governors also have their challenges,” said Dr Oginga.
He went on: “Raila wants CDF taken by counties but my opinion is should only be delinked from MPs but remain as a fund earmarked for the constituency out of the control of MPs.”
He emphasized that since its inception, CDF has done wonders, paying bursaries, constructing classrooms, putting up dispensaries, equipping them and buying drugs as well as building dormitories for students thus becoming a yardstick for performance of MPs.
