Kenya post-Raila: Why it is not just about succession, but the Ruto survival

Odinga died in India on October 15 and it was just the following morning that the ODM National Executive Committee met and announced the naming of Dr Oginga as acting party leader.

But the previous night, even before the formal announcement, Kileleshwa MCA Robert Alai had let the cat out of the bag with a social media post: “The acting Party Leader, now that Baba Raila Odinga is resting, is Oburu Oginga. Don’t listen to the people who are still in political adolescence,” he posted on social media.

Most instructive was his reference presumably targeting Mr Edwin Sifuna, the Secretary-General and official party spokesman, who has been leading a youthful group fiercely opposed to a push by influential figures in ODM to back Dr Ruto’s 2027 presidential re-election.

Other prominent voices in the faction are Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and his Saboti colleague Caleb Amisi.

They have teamed up with like-minded leaders from different political formations to launch “Kenya Moja”, a youth-led movement exploring the fronting a presidential candidate.

Read: Sifuna-led team mulls fielding presidential candidate

With the towering figure of Odinga, who has led ODM since its formation 20 years ago having made a final bow, there is bound to be a transition period in the party that could be pretty divisive, even before factoring in re-alignments at national level.

Given that the post of party leader is not an executive role and not involved in day-to-day management of the outfit, there might not have been any urgent need to fill the vacuum. Indeed, it was almost exactly one year ago – October 13, 2024 – that Odinga temporarily stepped aside from his role as party leader to focus on his ultimately unsuccessful campaign for the African Union Commission chairmanship. His absence did not adversely affect party operations.

It, therefore, is most likely that speedy appointment of an acting party leader is supposed to signal continuity and fidelity to the broad-based government arrangement, while keeping in check Nairobi Senator Sifuna and others whose pronouncements in coming days and weeks will not be taken as the official ODM position.

Other than representing the party old guard and his appointment being in honour of his younger brother, Dr Oginga is an odd choice to steer the party even in an interim capacity.

He occupies no place of significance in the ODM hierarchy, where Odinga was backed by three deputies – Mombasa Governor Abdulswamad Nassir, his Kisii colleague Simba Arati and Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi.

Above the three is the national chairperson, Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga, whose growing influence places her in pole position in the contest to fill Odinga’s shoes in ODM and Nyanza leadership.

Other key officials are Mr Sifuna as head of the secretariat responsible for day-to-day management of the party, alongside National Treasurer Timothy Bosire.

Dr Oginga, who in a tragic coincidence, was marking his 82nd birthday on the day his brother died, is unlikely to be a viable candidate, even in the culture of political inheritance.

An organisation with an eye on the future would probably be looking at a younger crop of leaders to take up the helm, but clearly, some see a need to place early curbs on any shifts that would divert from the path set by Odinga.

If ODM appoints Dr Oginga merely so that he assumes a role of party spokesman in order to keep Senator Sifuna in check, it will only be postponing the power struggle likely to emerge. It will be a struggle centred on the pact with the Kenya Kwanza regime, including continuing support for government programmes.

Ultimately, it will be about whether ODM will support Ruto’s second-term bid. Looming in the background is the challenge mounted by the nascent opposition alliance fronted by figures like former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and wiper Party chief Kalonzo Musyoka, and the front expected to field former Interior CS Fred Matiang’i with the support of retired president Uhuru Kenyatta. There is also the candidacy of former Chief Justice David Maraga, looking like all others to tap into the disaffected youth vote.

Mr Sifuna and his team had indicated well before Odinga started ailing that they were prepared to quit ODM should it support Ruto’s re-election bid.

They came up against strong voices in the party keen to cement the alliance with Dr Ruto, including Dr Oginga and Ms Wanga, as well as Cabinet Secretaries Ali Hassan Joho (Mining), Opiyo Wandayi (Energy) and John Mbadi (Treasury).

The three ministers, together with Cooperatives colleague Wycliffe Oparanya, were incidentally among the party leaders who vacated their positions on becoming direct beneficiaries of the pact and being elevated to the Cabinet. Mr Mbadi was the ODM national chairman, while Mr Joho and Mr Oparanya were deputy party leaders. Mr Wandayi was MP for Ugunja and National Assembly minority whip.

In the months before he died, Odinga was playing a delicate balancing act, straddling between discord in ODM over the level of engagement with Ruto.

Mr Sifuna attracted a fierce pushback from the voices committed to a binding pact with the President designed around a “41 versus One” strategy meant to rally the rest of the country against the threat of a resurgent Mt Kenya hegemony.

Odinga gave mixed signals on the issue. He justified the broad-based government as essential to national unity and stability in the wake of the 2024 Gen-Z revolt that almost became a national insurrection.

At the same time, he backed Mr Sifuna’s right to speak. He never chastised those who voiced backing for Ruto’s re-election, but often brandished the 10-point agenda he signed with the President to illustrate the fact that nowhere did the pact indicate a formal coalition, or abandonment of ODM’s quest for the presidency in 2027.

If the temporary appointment of the Siaya senator as Odinga’s successor is anything to go by, conservatives in the party will want to move fast to neutralise and isolate the Kenya Moja brigade.

But that might precipitate a fallout if the younger voices regroup and try to seize control of ODM, or go their separate way.

There is still the matter of incomplete party elections, an overdue national delegates conference and the 20th anniversary celebrations, all of which will be put on indefinite hold and maybe allow the pro-Ruto conservatives breathing space to consolidate their positions.

However, the younger group will not be sitting idle. They will be keen to seize the momentum and exploit the mood of discontent and alienation evident among Kenyan youth beyond ethnic or party loyalists.

Within ODM, it is likely that important figures and Odinga’s comrades-in-arms since the struggle against single-party dictatorship, notably governors James Orengo (Siaya) and Anyang Nyong’o (Kisumu) will back the Sifuna group.

The two veterans have voiced discomfort with the broad-based government arrangement, but refrained from directly challenging the direction set by Odinga.

It is almost certain that they will want to play central roles in designing the post-Raila ODM. As host governor, Mr Orengo will play a key role in Odinga’s funeral in Bondo today. He will most likely seize the moment to restate the need for an ODM that remains loyal to the principles established by the founding father; including human rights, democracy, rule of law, transparency and accountability that cannot be abandoned just to remain in a pact with President Ruto.

There will be an Odinga succession, with vacuums to fill on three fronts – the family, the Luo community and ODM.

Within the family, there is Dr Oginga, active in politics but in his sunset years. The youngest sibling, Ruth, in her mid-60s, is also in politics, serving as Kisumu Woman Representative in the National Assembly.

The person to watch, however, could be Odinga’s youngest daughter, Winnie. She impressed with the grace and stoicism in display while in India with her father at the time of his passing.

Though she was with Ruth, it was clear that Winnie, 35, was the focal point in preparations for return of the body to Kenya barely 24 hours after his death.

A member of the East African Legislative Assembly, Winnie already has extensive experience in her father’s political machinery as seen during the 2022 campaigns. She became a confidant and adviser, and was already looking set to fill positions that once seemed reserved for elder brother Fidel until his death in 2015 and sister Rosemary whose political aspirations were halted by illness in 2017.

Anyone who assumes political leadership in the family will also be in a strong position to win recognition as the Raila Odinga successor in Luo leadership, and ultimately in the national scene.

But there will also be the likes of Mr Mbadi, Ms Wanga and Suba North MP Millie Odhiambo in contention, while veterans like Mr Orengo and Prof Nyong’o might be seen as the ones to keep the Odinga flame burning. From the Kenya Moja brigade, the likes of Babu Owino will also be staking their claim.

In party leadership, it will not be a purely Luo affair. Mr Joho and Mr Nassir, both from the Coast, will be in contention; as will Mr Oparanya from Western; Mr Sifuna who can claim constituencies in Nairobi and Western; and Arati from Kisii-Nyanza. Ultimately, however, it will boil down not just to the Odinga succession, but to Dr Ruto survival.

Once Mr Gachagua was impeached as DP and walked away with the Mt Kenya vote, Dr Ruto came to depend on Odinga.

If ODM walks away from the pact and it lacks a powerful personality to rally the vote, his re-election prospects could be considerably dimmed.  

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