Azimio la Umoja Coalition leader Raila Odinga.
Azimio la Umoja One Kenya coalition leader Raila Odinga faces a tough political choice in his bid for the African Union Commission (AUC) chair.
The Kenyan opposition leader could be damned if he wins and damned if he loses the continental seat.
Although the post would boost Mr Odinga’s credentials after five unsuccessful attempts to win the country's presidency and elevate him to the regional arena, it would restrict his local political activities.
Mr Odinga has maintained that he will still be available in the event that he wins the post, a statement seen by observers as a way of managing his support base.
However, with a full plate awaiting the successful candidate in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Mr Odinga is unlikely to take an active role in local politics.
Azimio la Umoja leader Raila Odinga speaks to the media in Nairobi on February 15, 2024 when he formally declared his interest in the African Union Commission chairmanship.
Should he win the AUC post in February next year’s poll, Mr Odinga will have to relinquish his leadership of Azimio and ODM party, the latter which he shall have led for two decades.
Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua and Wiper’s Kalonzo Musyoka have already started flexing their muscles in preparation to take over the coalition’s leadership.
While Ms Karua insists that, as Mr Odinga’s running mate in the 2022 elections, she deserves to take over its leadership, Mr Musyoka maintains that he is the one with political muscles to steer the political outfit.
The same applies to ODM party, which has witnessed succession campaigns with Mr Odinga’s deputy Hassan Joho launching nationwide campaigns in preparation to take over.
Joho’s co-deputy, former Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya is also keen on succeeding Mr Odinga.
The AUC chairperson’s role is pivotal in driving the organisation to achieve greater unity, solidarity, and prosperity for the African continent, hence Mr Odinga will have to concentrate on that calling.
According political and governance expert Mr Javas Bigambo says that Mr Odinga’s chances of winning the AUC post remain high, and his bid significant.
“If he wins it, he will proudly wear the cap of an African statesman, and his enigmatic claim will have new meaning, albeit within diminished direct political influence in Kenya,” argues Mr Bigambo.
Mr Odinga, he adds, will be figuratively significant by way of his nationalistic extraction, but he will not directly impact the lives of Kenyans or anyone within any country in Africa.
President William Ruto (left) and opposition leader Raila Odinga in Kisozi, Uganda, on February 26, 2024.
This means that securing the post could erode Mr Odinga’s position as the voice of the voiceless in the Kenyan societal set up, something he has mastered in nearly three decades.
Victory for Mr Odinga would likely cement his relationship with President William Ruto, his opponent in the hotly contested August 2022 presidential election.
For political analyst, Dismas Mokua, Mr Odinga will have to “immunise himself from Kenyan politics and allow talent to thrive in both Azimio and ODM,” if he wins the AUC post.
“He must therefore give local politics a wide berth and pay premium attention to AUC. He must not attempt to serve two masters because probability of successful failing in both is 100 percent,” argues Mr Mokua.
On his part, Dr Martin Oloo says that in the meantime, Mr Odinga is likely to want to manage Kenyan politics through the back door.
“It appears he (Odinga) is happy to play Joho and Oparanya against each other in the search for ODM ticket,” Dr Oloo told the Nation on Tuesday.
On the other hand, a loss for Mr Odinga could have far reaching political ramifications as it will reinforce the perception that he remains a “perennial loser,” following his five unsuccessful attempts to become the country’s president.
“If he loses the bid, he will remain politically active in Kenya, with a potential showdown with President Ruto on the cards in 2027, although with minimal chances of winning. Either way, Raila is likely to be on Ruto's side in 2027,” Mr Bigambo opines.
Mr Odinga would face an uphill task in damage control, to try to reinvent himself politically but will face the pressure to hang his boots and endorse one Azimio principal.
Azimio la Umoja leader Raila Odinga (left) with former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo in Nairobi on February 15, 2024.
Already, Mr Musyoka has teamed up with DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa in campaigns for the 2027 presidential contest.
Mr Odinga’s comeback, if he loses the AUC seat, is likely to unsettle the pair.
Dr Oloo is of the view that a loss for Mr Odinga “will take him back to the trenches to dig in against the government.”
With the ODM leader turning 80 next year, Mr Mokua argues that defeat would pile more pressure on him to exit the Kenyan political stage.
“He will have to put together a succession plan for both Azimio and ODM. He needs to create an environment that will identify and reward top talent. His continued presence in both Azimio and ODM is frustrating and suffocating talent growth and development,” Mr Mokua says.
Mr Odinga will also have to explore avenues of passing the baton to other leaders.
“This path will give him the opportunity to retire from active politics with a stellar brand. Retiring in 2027 on account of the umpteenth defeat in a presidential election will expose him to reputation liabilities,” says Mr Mokua.
Some observers also view Mr Odinga’s loss, if it happens, as a recipe for “Kenya’s politics of betrayal debate.”
Rwandan President Paul Kagame (right) with Kenyan opposition leader Raila Odinga in Kigali on March 8, 2024.
On the regional front, Mr Odinga’s win will test his democratic credentials as he will have to promote democracy and the rule of law and establish systems to deal with leaders who abandon democracy by embracing coups.
Meanwhile, President Ruto has taken the lead in campaigns for Mr Odinga’s AUC bid with an aim of handing him victory, and has secured for him support from Ghana, among other countries, with President Nana Akufo-Addo endorsing the ODM leader’s quest.
Speaking during his State visit to the West African nation last month, President Ruto said Kenya’s candidature is informed by its leading role in enhancing and sustaining the pan African agenda.
“…this is in terms of independence and sovereignty, peace and security, development and prosperity as well as sustainability and climate action. We hope to work with all as we strike to achieve Africa’s 2063 agenda,” President Ruto said.
At the same time, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, who is also the Foreign Affairs Cabinet Secretary, has warned politicians against utterances that could jeopardize the country’s prospects to win the AUC position, regretting that some talks might weaken Kenya’s quest for the top regional post.
“Please let us take this issue of the African Union Chairmanship more seriously than we are taking it. Be careful because what you say may undermine our national interest, don’t just speak as if it is a village agenda,” Mudavadi said.
President William Ruto (left), opposition leader Raila Odinga and Uganda's President Yoweri Museveni in Kisozi, Uganda, on February 26, 2024.
All this comes in the backdrop of a heightened campaign by Mr Odinga for the post. The ODM leader has lined a meeting with 28 ambassadors and High Commissioners in Nairobi.
He has already held talks with the High Commissioner of the United Kingdom to Kenya, Dr Neil Wigan and US ambassador to Kenya Meg Whitman.
The ODM leader has also held separate meetings with Norwegian ambassador to Kenya Mr Gunnar Andreas Holm and Australia's High Commissioner Ms Jenny Da Rin at his Karen home in Nairobi.
