Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s surprise bid for the presidency in 2027 has jolted the political scene, with allies insisting the move is a calculated opposition tactic to rally supporters ahead of the next election.
According to sources within the United Opposition, the declaration is consistent with an agreed plan among key figures to signal their personal ambitions as a way of consolidating their regional support bases before coalescing behind a single flagbearer.
The move, however, has generated speculation that opposition leaders could fracture in pursuit of their ambitions, with comparisons being drawn to the failed Forum for the Restoration of Democracy (Ford) experiment of 1992, when competing interests denied the opposition victory against President Daniel arap Moi.
Those close to Mr Gachagua maintain that he is committed to the opposition’s broader goal of unseating President William Ruto , but his declaration is also meant to reassure his supporters in Mt Kenya that he will not be sidelined in the unfolding political realignments.
The former deputy president has previously indicated his readiness to play the role of kingmaker by backing a strong joint opposition ticket, at one time appearing to favour a Kalonzo Musyoka –Fred Matiang’i pairing.
Yet his recent activities suggest a renewed determination to place himself at the centre of the contest. Speaking while addressing a crowd in Karatina last weekend, Mr Gachagua declared that 2027 would mark the beginning of a new Kenya.
“The year 2027 is the time; I am firmly in the presidential race for a better Kenya where every Kenyan will participate in governance for the country,” he said.
He added that his first act as president would be to abolish the controversial housing levy, promising to hand over existing housing projects to county governments to manage and compensate Kenyans whose contributions had been deducted.
Democracy for the Citizens Party leader Rigathi Gachagua (center) addressing journalists at his home in Karen, Nairobi, on July 9, 2025.
Photo credit: Bonface Bogita | Nation Media Group
Insiders believe the declaration is also driven by pressure from his loyalists seeking elective seats. They see his candidacy as critical to boosting their own chances, particularly in Mt Kenya. Mr Gachagua has made no secret of his ambition to build a dominant political vehicle in the region under his Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP), a platform he hopes will sweep a majority of seats in 2027.
His strategists argue that such influence is only possible if he is himself on the presidential ballot. At a rally in Laikipia in January, Mr Gachagua invoked the example of Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party Raila Odinga , noting that despite never clinching the presidency, Mr Odinga has remained politically relevant by marshalling loyal followers into Parliament.
“Like Odinga, I will only let in loyal flag bearers into the Mountain party that I will announce soon. This party will not have room for traitors. It will be available to those who will sign an agreement with our people that they will never betray us and our interests,” he declared.
Supporters, such as Gatanga MP Edward Muriu, describe the move as part of a deliberate mobilisation strategy.
He said the opposition had agreed that each principal would return to their regions to rally grassroots support before engaging in negotiations on the presidential ticket.
“One of the ways of having people coalesce around you is by telling them your ambitions. People cannot follow you if you don’t tell them your plans. He has to energise Mt Kenya by declaring his presidential ambition,” said Mr Muriu. He recalled that, in the run-up to the 2022 election, leaders such as Moses Wetang’ula and Musalia Mudavadi had declared interest in the presidency before joining a coalition ticket.
Kisii Senator Richard Onyonka echoed the sentiment, arguing that declarations of ambition are essential in politics.
“I don’t see any contradictions in the pronouncement by Mr Gachagua. If you don’t tell people that you are running, how do you expect them to follow you?” he posed.
Yet the announcement has unsettled some camps, particularly allies of Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, who fear that Mr Gachagua could emerge as a formidable contender if he consolidates the Mt Kenya vote. While they regard him as polarising and potentially a liability in regions beyond his backyard, they also acknowledge that his candidacy could complicate the coalition’s path to unity.
'Why Gachagua can still run for president despite impeachment'
Mr Musyoka, who has supported Raila Odinga’s presidential bids in 2013, 2017 and 2022, has made it clear that he will not cede the field again. In past interviews, he has said that stepping aside would mean retiring from politics. “Giving up my presidential ambitions would actually mean going home. It is as simple as that. That means it is not an option,” he told the Nation.
Nonetheless, Mr Musyoka’s allies downplay tensions, insisting that the declarations are part of a coordinated strategy to consolidate regional bastions.
Machakos Deputy Governor Francis Mwangangi said the plan was to elevate regional kingpins before rallying behind one candidate. “What you are seeing is part of our strategy against Ruto. We want to create influential regional kingpins before we finally rally behind our presidential candidate,” he explained. Kitui Senator Enoch Wambua insisted that the opposition must present a united front.
“The principals in the opposition ranks know better than anyone else that this election will not be about egos or entitlements. It will be about winning for the millions of Kenyans who are frustrated and fed up with the atrocities of the Ruto regime,” he said. He warned that Kenyans would not forgive leaders who put personal ambition ahead of collective interests.
“It is okay for Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and any other qualified Kenyan to declare interest in the presidency. But when the time comes, and this will be soon, a collegiate decision will be made to pick the best-suited person among all those who will have expressed interest in the seat,” he said.
Observers see in Mr Gachagua’s move both tactical manoeuvring and psychological warfare against the ruling camp. Prof David Monda, a US-based political analyst, argues that the declaration is meant to keep President Ruto guessing.
“I see his declaration of his ambitions to run as a bluff to the Ruto camp. To test the waters and keep Ruto guessing who will be the candidate running against him. As it stands, the opposition is giving Ruto nightmares because he has no way of knowing how to efficiently use his campaign war chest, because he does not know whom he will be facing,” he said.
Analysts caution that multiple candidates could play into President Ruto’s hands, citing the 1992 election when the opposition’s failure to unite enabled Moi to retain power despite widespread discontent. Moi won with 1.9 million votes, while Kenneth Matiba, Mwai Kibaki and Jaramogi Oginga Odinga split the opposition vote, each commanding significant tallies that collectively surpassed Moi’s numbers.
But others suggest the strategy could be to deny Dr Ruto a first-round victory, forcing a run-off where opposition unity could be leveraged.
“It could work out negatively for Ruto if the opposition vote is fractured, but the first round of voting is inconclusive. In this scenario, no candidate gets the majority of the vote or satisfies the 50 per cent plus one vote. If the anti-incumbent mood in the country persists till 2027, losing opposition candidates will feel better hedging their bets with the opposition than with a very unpopular incumbent,” explained Prof Monda. He added that Dr Ruto’s best option would be to lure one or two opposition principals into his camp to weaken the anti-incumbent momentum.
Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua arrives at Jomo Kenyatta International Airport from the US on August 21, 2025.
Photo credit: Francis Nderitu | Nation Media Group
Prof Macharia Munene, another political analyst, described the declaration as expected. “I think it is part of their game plan of mobilising their support bases. It is not a surprise, but part of keeping the spirit of their supporters high. This is purely political posturing before they can unveil their candidate,” he said.
Still, Mr Gachagua’s candidacy faces significant legal and reputational hurdles. He carries the stigma of impeachment after becoming the first Deputy President to be removed from office under the 2010 Constitution.
The Senate voted him out last October on charges of ethnic incitement, intimidation of judges, and abuse of office. His lawyers argue the process was politically motivated and stress that the matter is under judicial challenge.
They cite the Supreme Court’s precedent in the Mike Sonko case, which held that disqualification from office only takes effect after all judicial avenues are exhausted.
Mr Gachagua’s legal team sees three possible paths: overturning the impeachment in court, securing temporary suspension orders until after the elections, or persuading judges to rule that the impeachment was a political witch-hunt that does not trigger disqualification.
Former Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mithika Linturi, a close ally, said the impeachment does not bar him from contesting.
“There’s no hurdle on Riggy G’s path to contesting for the presidency. The impeachment you refer to is already contested in court. And until such a matter is settled with the courts affirming it is when that argument can obtain, and if anything, we expect the courts to do justice to him,” he argued.
But critics, including Jubilee Secretary-General Jeremiah Kioni, insist impeachment is a political death knell.
“Some civic education will help our people understand what being impeached under the 2010 Constitution actually means. When that happens, you’ll not see some people running around saying they can run for elective seats. Once impeached, you are being told you cannot start galvanising people behind you,” said Mr Kioni. The paradox for Mr Gachagua is most evident in Mt Kenya, where he is admired as a combative voice against the government, yet doubted by some as a potential national leader.
His supporters regard him as a fighter capable of protecting the region’s interests, but his critics argue that his abrasive style could alienate potential allies and undermine the opposition’s prospects nationally.
As the clock ticks towards 2027, the opposition continues to grapple with balancing personal ambitions against the overriding imperative of unity.
Mr Gachagua’s declaration, while unsettling to some, may be a necessary phase in building the momentum required to take on a sitting president.
The question that remains is whether the opposition will ultimately transcend individual egos to forge a single ticket strong enough to dethrone Dr Ruto, or whether history will repeat itself with splintered ambitions delivering victory to the incumbent.
