Ruto eyes ODM bases as Raila faces Mt Kenya

The endorsement would crown the political camaraderie between Mr Odinga and the Head of State, which started with the surprise March 9, 2018 Handshake that calmed the nation after a stormy poll season that saw President Kenyatta’s first-round win nullified by the Supreme Court.

“Whatever the future holds, I look forward to working with him (Raila) and all Kenyans to build a better, brighter, more united and prosperous Kenya, East Africa and Africa,” President Kenyatta said in Kisumu in June, at a function also attended by Mr Odinga. 

But even as the former Prime Minister faces the mountain in his bid to bolster his chances of succeeding President Kenyatta, his Orange party seems to be slowly losing its fortunes in perceived strongholds such as the Coast region, the Maa community, Western and parts of the vote-rich Rift Valley, including Turkana.

Deputy President William Ruto, who is seen as Mr Odinga’s main challenger, has been on a charm offensive of perceived ODM strongholds and has managed to win key allies of the former premier in those areas.

Key allies of Mr Odinga’s who the DP has bagged since 2017 include Turkana Governor Josphat Nanok, Kisii Deputy Governor Joash Maangi, Aisha Jumwa (Malindi), Owen Baya (Kilifi North), Khatib Mwashetani (Lunga Lunga), Lodepe Nakara (Turkana Central), Paul Katana (Kaloleni) and Benjamin Tayari (Kinango).

Early this month, Mr Odinga admitted that he needed to consolidate his Nyanza backyard before moving to other regions. 

Already, his main political rival, Dr Ruto, has embarked on identifying young professionals and politicians in the region led by Mr Odinga's former aide, management consultant and strategist Eliud Owalo to battle the ODM chief in his political bastion.

“We have walked a long journey of democracy, just like the Israelites on their way to Canaan, with a clear vision of where we are going. Those who have no idea where they are heading have resorted to using other routes leading to nowhere,” he said in an indirect reference to Migori Governor Okoth Obado’s recent move to promote the People’s Democratic Movement (PDP).

Countering Ruto’s influence

Other political parties trying to make forays into Mr Odinga’s backyard are David Ochieng’s Movement for Democracy and Growth and the Green Congress Party.

In a move aimed at countering Dr Ruto’s influence, ODM has lined up numerous meet-the-people tours across the country, but the plan was put on hold due to surging cases of Covid-19.

Mr Odinga is expected to tour Kakamega and later Coast, North Eastern, Eastern, Rift Valley and Nairobi.

With Kilifi Governor Amason Kingi having severed ties with ODM, Ganze MP Teddy Mwambire yesterday told the Nation that, in the next 100 days, he will be working with other ODM leaders in the coastal region to expand the party’s base and lock out Dr Ruto, whose allies have aggressively been trying to penetrate the region.

“Ruto has no proper strategy to outdo ODM in the Coast region. If you analyse the effort they had put in before the 2017 General Election, it was more than what the wheelbarrow is doing now, yet they lost. ODM is the dominant party in the region and it will not be defeated by what we're seeing in the next elections,” Mr Mwambire said.

After humiliating ODM in the Msambweni parliamentary by-election, Dr Ruto seems to have developed interest in the Coast region.

The DP has visited the region twice since May, with former Mombasa Senator Hassan Omar saying the region is no longer an appendage of “Odingaism”.

Dr Ruto’s latest visit coincided with that of ODM leader Raila Odinga.

“Issues of the Coast region remain the same - historical injustices and land, among others, but our people are no longer at ease with Raila championing these issues. They want young leaders like myself and all those who subscribe to the Hustler narrative,” Mr Omar told the Nation yesterday.

In 2017, Mr Odinga garnered 801,031 votes against Mr Kenyatta’s 287,606 votes in the six coastal counties.

Lock out Mr Odinga

To win over the Maa community, Dr Ruto is banking on Kajiado South MP Katoo ole Metito, senators Philip Mpaayei and Mary Seneta (Nominated).

In the ODM camp, Kajiado Central MP Elijah Memusi Kanchori yesterday told the Nation that with Narok Senator Ledama Olekina developing cold feet for the Orange party, they have formed a team comprising himself, Moitalel ole Kenta (Narok North), Peris Tobiko (Kajiado East), Senator Judy Pareno (nominated) and former Governor David Nkedianye, among others, to drum up support for Mr Odinga.

In the 2017 General Election, Mr Odinga garnered 299,380 votes from  Narok, Kajiado and Samburu counties, against 367,603 votes that Mr Kenyatta got.

“Raila enjoys support among our people. Though some people are wavering, our people stand with Raila for what he fights for. Ruto is known for empty promises,” Mr Kanchori told the Nation.

Loima MP Jeremiah Lomorukai, who is also ODM vice-chairman, refuted claims that Governor Nanok had left ODM, arguing that the North Rift has  been voting for Mr Odinga overwhelmingly since 2007. In 2017, Mr Odinga managed 71,063 votes against Mr Kenyatta’s 58,744 votes.

“Nanok thought his dalliance with the DP’s team would kill ODM. He is, however, in for a rude shock because the party is stronger than before. We have even opened a party office in Lodwar, which is fully functional,” said Mr Lomorukai.

Mr Nanok, who is the national coordinator the Hustler Nation economic blueprints, has started popularising Dr Ruto’s party in the vast county.

“I left ODM because it was not taking into consideration the interests of the people of Turkana,” Mr Nanok told the Nation.

In Western, where Amani National Congress (ANC) boss Musalia Mudavadi and his Ford-Kenya counterpart are determined to lock out Mr Odinga, Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya called on the region to embrace their neighbours.

"Our region has always been outside the government. For us to be in Government in 2022, we should embrace our neighbours and work with them," Mr Oparanya, who is also ODM’s deputy party leader, said early this month.

Raila’s charm offensive

To woo Mt Kenya, ODM secretary-general Edwin Sifuna disclosed to the Nation they are banking on their ‘Rural Development’ message.

“The plan for Mt Kenya is the same as the plan for all of Kenya. We believe politics is about persuasion and you can only win over people by proposing policies that appeal to them. I'm sure our proposals on Rural development, universal health coverage and strengthening devolution will appeal to our brothers in the Mountain just as much as those from other parts of the country,” Mr Sifuna said. 

The eight Mt Kenya counties – Meru, Tharaka-Nithi, Embu, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a and Kiambu have 4.1 million votes, which helped catapult Jubilee to State House in 2013 and 2017.  The DP has intensified inroads in the region hoping to succeed his boss.

ODM chairman John Mbadi, who is also the Minority Leader in the National Assembly, said 
Mr Odinga has been gaining ground in the Mountain region.

Nominated MP Maina Kamanda, an ardent defender of the President, yesterday insisted a Raila presidency would be Kenya’s “Mandela moment”.

Raila’s charm offensive in Mr Kenyatta’s backyard has been buoyed by indications that the Orange party leader might get the backing of such key leaders as governors Mwangi wa Iria (Murang'a), James Nyoro (Kiambu), Anne Waiguru (Kirinyaga) and Ndiritu Muriithi (Laikipia), as well as Mr Kamanda (nominated MP) and former Gatanga MP Peter Kenneth.

Mr Muriithi said Central Kenya has remained in political debt to Mr Odinga and his family for the sacrifices they have made for the country since 1963.

"Before we pay the political debts of later years, we first need to settle older debts. It's time to first pay Mr Odinga's debt," Mr Muriithi said on Tuesday.

Kieni MP Kanini Kega, who described Mr Odinga as “Prince of Peace”, says whatever they are doing has the blessings of the President and is aimed at securing the region’s position in the next government.

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