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Ruto, Raila, Gachagua camps showdown looms as IEBC sets November 27 for 24 by-elections
From left: President William Ruto, ODM leader Raila Odinga and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.
The electoral commission has announced that all the 24 long-pending by-elections will be held on November 27, 2025, ending months of non-representation in the affected electoral units.
In a statement issued Saturday, the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) said the mini-polls will be conducted in two batches of gazettement this month, triggering a political contest expected to draw in President William Ruto, ODM leader Raila Odinga, and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s emerging opposition alliance.
Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission chairperson Erastus Ethekon (centre), CEO Marjan Hussein Marjan (left) and Vice Chairperson Fahima Araphat Abdallah address the media at Pride Inn Paradise in Shanzu, Mombasa County on July 19, 2025.
The first batch, gazetted on Friday, August 8, covers 16 Member of County Assembly (MCA) seats spread across 12 counties.
These include: Angata Nanyokie Ward (Samburu), Chemundu/Kapng’etuny (Nandi), Chewani (Tana River), Fafi (Garissa), Kariobangi North (Nairobi), Kisa East (Kakamega), Metkei (Elgeyo Marakwet), Mumbuni North (Machakos), Narok Town (Narok), Purko (Kajiado), Tembelio (Uasin Gishu), Nyansiongo, Nyamaiya, and Ekerenyo (Nyamira), Lake Zone and Nanaam (Turkana).
The second batch will be gazetted on Monday, August 11, and will include one Senate seat for Baringo County, six National Assembly seats; Banissa, Kasipul, Magarini, Malava, Mbeere North and Ugunja, and one MCA seat for Kabuchai/Chwele Ward in Bungoma County.
Some of the constituencies and wards have been without elected leaders for more than two years due to successful court petitions and deaths of incumbents, but prolonged by lack of a fully constituted electoral commission.
Speaking at a media stakeholders’ forum in Nairobi on Wednesday, IEBC Chairperson Erastus Ethekon said the commission’s elections operations committee was finalising timelines for all by-elections scheduled for this year.
IEBC Chairperson Erastus Edung Ethekon.
“The commission has planned to conclude all pending mini-polls in the course of 2025. Previous writs had expired, and under the law, a writ must be reissued to trigger a by-election,” Mr Ethekon said.
A writ is a formal written order issued by the Speaker of Parliament or County Assembly notifying the IEBC of a vacancy.
Article 101(4)(b) of the Constitution requires by-elections to be held within 90 days of the writ’s issuance—unless the vacancy occurs within six months to a General Election.
The announcement sets the stage for a high-stakes political duel in the run-up to the mini elections.
President Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) will be keen to demonstrate grassroots dominance, while Raila Odinga’s ODM will seek to reaffirm its traditional support bases.
The two leaders are currently working together under broad-based framework, and could compromise in some electoral units.
Meanwhile, Mr Gachagua, who has fashioned himself as leader of a new opposition bloc critical of both Dr Ruto and Mr Odinga, is expected to use the mini-polls to test their camp’s political appeal ahead of the 2027 General Election.
Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.
Adding a new dimension is the increasingly organised Generation Z movement.
Energised by recent protests over governance, cost of living, and corruption, Gen Z activists have vowed to disrupt Kenya’s traditional ethnic-based politics.
Observers say their voter mobilisation in the by-elections will be closely watched as a possible preview of their influence in 2027.
The November by-elections come after nearly three years of paralysis at the IEBC.
Since January 2023, the commission had been without commissioners following the exit and retirement of its chair – the late Wafula Chebukati.
Also Read: 19 by-elections, boundary review, 2027 elections: Why the IEBC team must hit the ground running
The vacuum stalled electoral processes, including by-elections, and left the affected constituencies without representation.
The stalemate ended with the swearing-in last month of Mr Ethekon as chair and six commissioners—Ann Njeri Nderitu, Moses Alutalala Mukhwana, Mary Karen Sorobit, Hassan Noor Hassan, Francis Odhiambo Aduol, and Fahima Arafat Abdallah—restoring the commission’s full operational capacity.
Political analysts say the mini-polls will serve as a litmus test for the country’s electoral preparedness, the credibility of the reconstituted IEBC, and the realignment of political forces ahead of 2027.
Also Read: By-elections test for Ruto, Raila, Gachagua
“These by-elections are more than just filling vacancies; they are a rehearsal for the political battles of the future,” said Mr Dismas Mokua.
He added that the mini polls will demonstrate whether the Head of State can consolidate, whether Mr Odinga can maintain his grip, and whether Mr Gachagua is a serious challenger, and whether Gen Z can translate activism into ballot numbers.
For the residents of the affected areas, however, November 27 marks the long-awaited return of representation and a chance to make their voices heard.
The 24 by-elections slated for November 27, 2025
Senate seats
1. Baringo
MP seats
1. Banissa
2. Kasipul
3. Magarini
4. Malava
5. Mbeere North
6. Ugunja
MCA seats
1. Angata Nanyokie Ward in Samburu County
2. Chemundu/Kapng’etuny Ward in Nandi County
3. Chewani Ward in Tana River County
4. Fafi Ward in Garissa County
5. Kariobangi North Ward in Nairobi City County
6. Kisa East Ward in Kakamega County
7. Metkei Ward in Elgeyo Marakwet County
8. Mumbuni North Ward in Machakos County
9. Narok Town Ward in Narok County
10. Purko Ward in Kajiado County
11. Tembelio Ward in Uasin Gishu County
12. Nyansiongo Ward in Nyamira
13. Nyamaiya Ward in Nyamira
14. Ekerenyo Ward in Nyamira
15. Lake Zone Ward in Turkana
16. Nanaam Ward in Turkana
17. Kabuchai/Chwele Ward in Bungoma
