President William Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) has found itself in a major political headache of concluding its ambitious party elections within 180 days amid falling-out with his deputy Rigathi Gachagua.
The order by the Office of the Registrar of Political Parties (ORPP) implies that President Ruto has to confront the divisive and chaotic nature of party elections that forced the ruling UDA to put the exercise on hold in the first place.
UDA started the polls in April, but was forced to abandon them after concluding the exercise in only two counties of Busia and Homa Bay out of the initial five that were scheduled in the first phase.
Constituency level elections in West Pokot were postponed over reports of possible violence while Nairobi and Narok were put on ice following petitions challenging credibility of the exercise.
UDA had planned to conclude the polls this August before they were indefinitely put on hold following political unrest against the proposed Finance Bill, 2024. “In line with good governance practices and the mandate of this office, the party is hereby directed to finalise the party elections as soon as practically possible but not later than a hundred and eighty (180) days from the date of this letter,” Registrar of Political Parties Anne Nderitu said. Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) also postponed its elections that were initially scheduled for April.
There is, however, no indication of any level of preparations to conduct the exercise. The party’s new national chairperson Gladys Wanga, who is also the Homa Bay Governor, said the outfit’s National Executive Council (NEC) would soon meet to deliberate on new dates for the grassroots elections.
Ms Wanga said the party was ready to conduct the exercise before it can embark on an aggressive revitalisation in preparation for 2027 General elections. The party’s National Elections Coordinating Committee chairperson Emily Awita told Nation that the party will soon communicate new dates.
Fears are rife that succession politics are likely to spill into party grassroots elections as rival camps would be seeking to install their loyalists in key party positions in their quest to succeed Mr Odinga, who is eyeing, chairmanship of the African Union Commission (AUC) in an election scheduled next year.
Party elections have in the past turned divisive and chaotic resulting in major fallouts, a scenario that has made many outfits in the country to avoid holding them.
The newly-installed UDA Secretary General Hassan Omar told Nation that the ruling party was ready to bite the bullet by proceeding with the elections despite their divisive nature.
Mr Omar said the party is ready to be serve as an example for other political outfits by concluding the grassroots elections. He said UDA will convene a meeting of party organs, including its National Elections Board, to discuss the way forward in handling the delicate elections.
“We want to change the script on how political parties have been managed in this country. We will have to proceed after having the input of party stakeholders,” said Mr Omar.
“It is a risk we have to take. Divisive as it may, it is something that we have to do. We must be guided by the democratic values and allow members install their party officials,” he said.
UDA NEB chairman Anthony Mwaura said there are plans to kick off the exercise and have the elections concluded by mid-December.
“We are going to start them again in November when schools are closed. The plan is to have the elections concluded in all the areas by December 15,” said Mr Mwuara. Nairobi Governor Johnson Sakaja, who is contesting for county chairmanship said the exercise should be concluded so that the outfit can embark on a major revamp ahead of the 2027 polls.
He said parties such as Amani National Congress (ANC) of Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi are already folding to join UDA.
“We want the elections concluded so that we can start building the party. The thinking in UDA is that we conclude the elections early enough so that we can deal with any possible fallout be-fore the next elections. We have to bite the bullet as a party,” said Mr Sakaja.
But the power struggle between two camps in UDA – one allied to President Ruto and the other to DP Gachagua – the party would be walking a tight rope as any dispute has the potential of disintegrating the outfit.
There is already a supremacy battle pitting Mr Gachagua and a host of Mt Kenya MPs led by National Assembly Majority Leader Kimani Ichung’wah and Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro.
Some of the UDA MPs have been accused of plotting the alleged impeachment of Mr Gachagua, in a larger scheme to have him out of the picture as Dr Ruto’s running mate in 2027.
The power struggle is likely to spill over to the party grassroots elections as each camp would be seeking to install their loyalists in key party positions so as to influence re-election talks.
“The grassroots elections will occasion many fallouts. The principal issue is the personality driven nature of Kenyan politics. The challenge for both Ruto and Raila is keeping all members of their coalitions happy while encouraging defections from their rivals,” says David Monda, a political analyst and a university lecturer.
Prof Monda says the elections are likely to occasion major realignment of regional political kingpins with losers scouting for alternative political formations. “What we will be watching is the potential fallout between Rigathi and Nyoro in Mt Kenya and who Ruto will look to support,” he observes.
He adds, “In ODM, how will potential successors to Raila place themselves with upcoming grassroots elections.” An attempt by Mr Odinga in 2014 to hold party elections at Kasarani national stadium aborted after a group of youth famously known as men in black stormed the venue and bungled the exercise.
It later, however, emerged that the youths were hired by some senior party officials to avert what was claimed as an attempt by some external forces to take over the party by planting their proxies in key party positions.
In 2021, ODM engaged in consensus building in one county after another in picking party officials that culminated in a National Governing Council (NGC) in Nairobi.
In Jubilee, former President Uhuru Kenyatta declined to call for party elections even as his then deputy, Dr Ruto, sustained pressure for party members to participate in electing officials.
