President Ruto’s recent visits to Raila Odinga’s strongholds in Coast and Nyanza regions signal his strategic plan to gain support ahead of the 2027 elections
President William Ruto's recent back-to-back tours to the perceived strongholds of Raila Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has raised speculations about his efforts to cement the new political dalliance ahead of 2027.
This comes as Dr Ruto appears to have fallen out of favour with a section of Mt Kenya leaders following the impeachment of his former deputy Rigathi Gachagua.
The Coast and Nyanza regions were predominantly opposition zones, with Mr Odinga's ODM receiving massive support from residents during the elections.
This week alone, the President visited three counties in the region and although the visits were official, they were not without political overtones.
On Thursday, December 5, the President was in Kilifi to officially open the Kilifi International Investment Conference in Vipingo.
This came just two days after his two-day tour of Taita Taveta County, where he launched several development projects and presided over the groundbreaking of a Sh11 billion iron ore processing plant in Manga, Voi.
The project is being implemented by the Devki Group of Companies.
Dr Ruto is also expected to officially open the East African Community Inter-Parliamentary Games in Mombasa County from Friday to December 18.
The Coast visits came barely a week after he received a rousing welcome in Kisumu County, a key political stronghold of Mr Odinga.
He had also held a meeting with Coast political leaders at State House on November 25.
According to political observers, these visits, though planned as official tours, have openly turned out to be politically strategic, judging from the speeches of several leaders.
Political analysts who spoke to Nation.Africa said the President could be garnering support from these regions in the hope of forming an alliance with the Orange Party in the future.
In what can be described as a top-down approach to politics by a proponent of the bottom-up economic model, President Ruto appears to be seeking the favour of the masses in the former Prime Minister's political backyards after pulling Mr Odinga to his side, followed by other ODM honchos.
This, political pundits say, would be a strategic move, especially after the impeachment of Rigathi Gachagua which has unsettled some of Dr Ruto's supporters who played a key role in his election in the populous Mt Kenya region.
Political analyst Sammy Ruwa said President Ruto's forays into the Coast and Kisumu are part of his strategy to shore up support from different blocs or regions after seemingly losing parts of Mount Kenya region following Mr Gachagua's impeachment.
"The President has almost lost a key bloc, Central, he needs to find a way to get support from other blocs that did not support him and Coast is one of them. He is definitely courting Coast and Nyanza regions to see if he can seal the obvious gap left by the deposed deputy president," said Mr Ruwa.
He added that if the unity between Kenya Kwanza and ODM continues, President Ruto is likely to get more votes from the Coast region in 2027.
Dr Ruto, however, sought to downplay any notion that he was campaigning when he criticised his opponents for engaging in early campaigning for the 2027 polls when he was in Taita Taveta.
In Kilifi County, he reiterated that his trip was for no other reason than to engage with investors.
"I'm not here for any other reason but only with an intention to join hands with the people and leaders of Kilifi in this auspicious investment conference that will give investors from all parts of Kenya, Africa and the world at large a chance to invest in Kilifi County. As they seek opportunities here, they will also get a chance to invest in the entire republic of Kenya," he said.
Since the formation of the broad-based government in recent months, ODM leaders have publicly rallied behind President Ruto, offering support that starkly contrasts their earlier positions.
This transformation is particularly evident in the actions and statements, with the President recently receiving vocal backing from his foes turned allies despite his ongoing criticism of opponents and detractors of his administration.
Under the broad-based government, some top ODM officials led by Mr Hassan Joho, Mr John Mbadi, Mr Opiyo Wandayi and Mr Wycliffe Oparanya were appointed into the Cabinet.
Later added to the list is the party’s former election board member Beatrice Askul.
The politicians have since become erstwhile supporters of the Kenya Kwanza government, to the extent that they have indicated that they will support Dr Ruto's presidential bid in 2027.
"The president has opened a new page through the broad-based government. In our Nyanza region we have been walking together with you (Coast region) all along. We (in Nyanza) have decided that we are supporting the president in any way," Mr Wandayi said in Taita Taveta.
In all his tours to ODM strongholds so far, the president and his entourage have stressed national unity and equal distribution of national resources.
This is seen as a veiled attack on Mr Gachagua who, before his impeachment, rallied his supporters behind regional politics and the distribution of resources based on population, commonly referred to as the 'one man, one shilling' formula.
Mr Gachagua has since gained support of Mr Odinga's former allies in the Azimio La Umoja One Kenya coalition, led by Wiper party leader Kalonzo Musyoka, his DAP-Kenya counterpart Eugene Wamalwa and Jubilee Secretary-General Jeremiah Kioni.
It is worth noting that Mr Kioni is a close associate of former president Uhuru Kenyatta.
Political analyst Kauli Mwatela said that the Coast region is an important area in terms of national politics and economy considering its strategic location to the Indian Ocean, the port of Mombasa and other natural resources such as minerals.
“It will be detrimental to anyone who despises the Coast region politically, the region produces a lot of revenue for the country that is why every politician would like to be associated with it,” said Mr Mwatela.
According to Mr Mwatela, the President visiting the region frequently is strategic as he might be eyeing more votes in 2027 than what he got in the last General Election.
In 2022, Mr Odinga maintained his popularity in the region by garnering 649,913 votes in the six counties, as Dr Ruto got 336,478 votes, according to data from the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC).
Although the President is openly supported by ODM-allied leaders whenever he tours the country, a section of ODM members have insisted that the party will field its own presidential candidate in 2027.
During a thanksgiving ceremony for Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi on December 1 following his appointment as ODM deputy party leader, Mr Odinga wanted his supporters to prepare "to form the next government".
“When the elections come in 2027, ODM will be the party to form the next government. But it is only possible if our supporters are well prepared because we have a manifesto, we have faith and we have the capacity and strength,” Mr Odinga was quoted.
